Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Ligue 1...surprise surprise. Caen gets two big scalps.

What is wrong with this picture?
Oh yes that is Caen sitting second for Ligue 1 with the past two champions in the relegation zone, and the former champion Lyon right out side of the drop zone. Okay I realize we are just 2 weeks into the season and much will change by the end of the year. I am still sticking to my predictions for Ligue 1. What is surprising is the top of the standings and SM Caen. The Normandy club has been up and down between Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 the past few seasons but have surprised everyone with 2 huge scalps to start the season - taking out Marseilles and Lyon, winning their opener against the defending Ligue 1 champion at their ground!

Will Caen go on to win the title...no. But I will make this statement after 2 games - they will not be relegated. Bold? Maybe. Over the past 5 seasons teams would need an average of 40.8 points to stay in Ligue 1. The fact that Caen already have 6 of those points - 15% of what a team will need to stay in Ligue 1. Add to this that those 6 points came at the expense of teams that Caen would expect, at best, to get 1 - 2 points from their opening fixtures. More realistic would have been 0 points from the first 2 games. Caen have 36 games to secure 34 points, that does not seem to daunting after the scalps already claimed. Even if Caen get drubbed in the return fixtures against these two sides, if you had told Dumas and Garande that from 4 games against OM and OL they would have 6 points, I am sure they would be thrilled. All the Normandy club has to do it be competitive against the second tier clubs and try to steal a point from the upper echelon clubs....clearly they have done the latter.

Of course not sure I am as confident that PSG will stay in Ligue 1 after a good start...but that is my eternal realism when it comes to my club....

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