France v Ireland....Predictions....at least for the game in Ireland

So I have given the match tomorrow much though...really thinking about the match since it became apparent that France would be playing the 2nd place matches. As with many of these matches, the underdog is hyped up and sometimes based on what you would read you would think the favorite has no chance against the scrappy, tough and hungry underdog. This game is no exception, with many pundits giving the Irish a better than average chance against Les Bleus, and seeing Ireland advance to South Africa. I put myself in this camp.

France have many advantages against their Irish opponent, and on paper should find a way to get the necessary goals to defeat the Green Machine. However they seem to be consistently underachieving ever since Domenech has taken charge - struggled to qualify for World Cup 2006, only to be rescued by the old guard of Zidane, Thuram and Makelele - struggled in the group stages during the World Cup, only to be rescued by Vieira and Zidane - struggled to qualify for Euro 2008, only to be rescued by Scotland's inexplicable lose at Georgia and the Italians' victory in Scotland - disaster at the Euros to be rescued by no one. Now they struggle to qualify for South Africa. The question remains will have they someone to save them this time? I am not sure.

However I did take a step back and looked at their recent matches and their overall qualifying campaign, and something did stick out - they have played fairly well when their backs were against the wall - down 2-0 at Romania, down 1-0 and a man at Serbia, difficult away fixture at Lithuania on a terrible pitch...and each time they did the necessary to capture points. Take out the terrible first match against Austria where they were clearly awful and France has played well, and for some spells have been world class (the Romania game after being down 2-0, the Serbia game after going down a goal and man and the second Austria game).

They should have beaten Romania at home, a game they completely dominated were it not for an unfortunate own goal would have had the full 3 points. At Serbia, they find themselves in a hostile environment, I might even suggest it will prove more hostile that Croke Park tomorrow, they go down a man (and the keeper at that...so really down 1.5 players since they lose their keeper and have to substitute out a field player to bring in Mandanda, therefore using one of their substitutions) and France still outplay their Eastern European opponents and really could have expected to get a win. While France should have qualified directly, they are not the JV.

And let us not forget that Ireland did not have the best qualifying campaign either. The focus is on the fact they held the defending World Cup Champions Italy to two draws. However they also had the same result against....Montenegro and beat the previously mentioned Georgia 2-1 twice as well as struggled against Cyprus (scoring 3 goals and conceding 1). I have read some that point out that Ireland have scored in all but 2 matches during the campaign...however the statistics show that the French offense is more effective:

• Ireland 12 goals for, 8 conceded
• France 18 goals for, 9 conceded (and before someone says, yeah but France had the Faroe's...well combined they only scored 6 goals against them...so no goal deluge to skew the numbers)

In addition the teams that finished behind France and Ireland were similar in terms of "rank" per the FIFA nations ranking, the teams that finished behind Ireland had an average rank of 35.75 while France's chasers 32.75 (this is looking at their UEFA ranking) The difference for me, France suffered arguably 60 minutes of terrible football - the first 30 minutes against Austria in Vienna, the first 20 minutes at Romania and the same in Serbia....otherwise they would be heading to South Africa already. I think that over 180 minutes of football that Les Bleus will have more good minutes than bad. This all starts this weekend in Dublin. France have shown they can travel and play in extreme conditions - see Romania and Serbia. If Dumbenech aligns an intelligent formation - one that will leverage his advantage at the striker position -

Lloris
Evra, Gallas, Abidal, Sagna
ADiara, LDiarra (Toulalan might be injured, and I would prefer the Bordeaux's man height and size on set pieces)
Anelka, Gourcuff, Henry
Benzema

This formation, while on paper is a 4-2-3-1, it can very easily switch to a 4-3-3 which would give Ireland defensive nightmares. I respect the offensive ability of Ireland, however I fear more the set pieces and the counters, which the Diarras should be strong at stopping. I do think that the Irish need to be put under constant pressure and go for the victory. I cannot envisage Ireland beating France twice over the next 2 games, getting 2 draws yes. So for Les Bleus getting goals in Ireland is crucial, even if it is a draw for the away goals will be huge.

I think Les Bleus come home with a precious 1-0 victory - goal from Benzema.

Of course Dumbenech could go with the same line up as above, but replace Anelka on the right with Govou and Gignac up front .... in which case I cannot see many French goals.

Allez les Bleus!!!!!!