Tomorrow will be the finals of what has turned out to be a very exciting and wide open Euro. We have had surprises - France's terrible showing, Russia getting to the semifinals, Turkey's last minute victories, to name a few. And now we are down to two - Germany a six time finalist and Spain a 3 time finalist, and what I did not know was that Spain has the 3rd most final appearances behind Germany and Russia....who would have known! What this comes down to is a nation that somehow finds a way to make finals when they do not deserve to - Germany (this Euro and World Cup 2002 to name two) and a nation that has long been labeled an underachiever - Spain.
I realize that Germany was a pre-tournament favorite but as I had stated in the past I thought they were wildly overrated. Even a win over Portugal and a last second victory over the Turks to propel Deutschland into the finals I still think they are punching above their weight class. With a number of players stepping up - Ballack, Schweinsteiger, Lahm, Podolski, and Klose to name a few, Germany has been difficult to defend since they are not reliant upon an individual player. However they have not convinced me, they have beaten teams they should beat - Poland and Austria (although unconvincingly). Lost to teams that exposed their defensive weaknesses - Croatia. Their defeat of Portugal was not convincing for me, I felt the Portugese were the class on the pitch but allowed the Germans to beat them on set pieces. The semi finals against Turkey, Germany ran into a team decimated by injuries and suspensions....and still were played very closely by the Turks. However this is Germany, as was famously stated "we play beautiful football and then Germany wins." So once again the German machine finds itself in a major final. How about Spain?
Espana has always been seen as the perennial underachiever. They came into this tournament with that albatross around their necks, they had arguably the most talent of any nation - when Fabregas does not even start you know you have outrageous talent. They held service, as they do in many tournaments playing the group stages with mouth watering football, making all the pundits dream that this team could finally shake off their demons and advance far in this tournament. I think this year those pundits might finally be right. Spain have found the right formula and I think the main reason for the success - Senna. Espana finally have the holding/defensive midfielder they need to free up their wealth of attacking options. And being able to leverage Fabregas gives them another midfielder who can link up defense and offense. In addition, having a number of key players plying their trade in England, I think they have a toughness otherwise lacking in the Spanish sides of past.
So what does this mean for the finals? I think this will unravel much to script - Germany playing a very rigid and disciplined defensive system while Spain will have the run of the game early. If Ballack cannot play I think Germany will sit back even more and look to hit on the counter. Spain will not have Villa, which will be a minor problem since Fabregas will have to start, not a problem, but will not afford him as a game changing substitute. There will be a tremendous amount of pressure on Lehman, and while he has held his shaky own until now, not sure that trend will continue. I think Senna will frustrate the German midfield and Casillas is the ultimate last curtain of defense. I have picked Spain to win this and I will stick with that pick. Spain have too much talent and are not afraid of being in the finals. If they can play like they did against Italy, do not get frustrated, do not make silly mistakes and bide your time, they can beat Germany. If Spain get frustrated and forget to keep their shape late, they will get burned by the German counter. The Spanish midfield of Xabi, Xavi, Fabregas and Senna will control the German midfield, and Torres and Silva will prove too quick and dangerous for the German defense. If Ballack does not play, I think Germany will be in real trouble. Senna will most likely take Schweinsteiger and try to mark him out of the game, leaving the German midfield without a viable engine. Without an engine not sure Klose or Podolski will have the support they need.
Spain 3 - Germany 1. Espana celebrate their second Euro title and get the monkey off their backs.
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