We are less than 24 hours away from the start of the European Championships. I looked back at my earlier predictions for the tournament...ahhh how things have changed. In case you would like to read what I had to say in January - http://thebeantownfrog.blogspot.com/2007/12/euro-2008-draw-france-in-group-of-death.html
Now with 5 months of thinking and the fact the tournament starts tomorrow, I will revisit my thoughts on the outcome of this tournament. So let us go through the first two groups:
Group A -
Portugal, Czech Republic, Switzerland, and Turkey.
- Portugal - This Euro 2004 runner ups and 4th place team from the last World Cup are a team that appears on the verge of greatness. Their strength lies in their world class midfield, starting with Ronaldo who is coming off a season for the ages at Manchester United. Partner him with a combination of Nani, Deco or Quaresma and you have a lethal midfield combo. However their lack of true striker might be their undoing, Ronaldo had an outstanding goal scoring season at ManU, yet he had folks such as Tevez and Rooney up front how will he hold up without such offensive talent to lean on? The Portugese defense should be serviceable, it is experienced and in Ricardo have a keeper that is not only solid but has demonstrated a knack of winning penalty shoot outs. The Player to watch - The obvious player is Ronaldo, but I think the difference maker could be Quaresma. If he plays a significant amount and if he lives up to his talent, Portugal will be very difficult to stop.
- Czech Republic - Hmmm which team will show up? The Czechs have been incredibly frustrating in the past few tournaments, sometimes surprisingly cohesive such as the Euro 1996 in England where they made it to finals or the European Cup in 2004 where they made the semi finals and sometimes frustrating as in the World Cup in Germany where they started strong but quickly fizzled and did not make the knock out stage. The Czechs no longer have the midfield maestro of Pavel Nedved and Rosicky is hurt, they still have one of the world's top 3 keepers in Cech and Baros who for some reason cannot score for his club but can be deadly for nation. I think their weakness will be lack of midfield creativity, without Nedved and Rosicky not sure who will pull the strings in the middle of the park. The Player to watch - Koller, the giant striker can be the difference maker for this team. If he is on, it will make the Czechs very dangerous on set pieces and long crosses into the area, freeing up space for Baros to do his thing.
- Switzerland - One of the host nations, there is some pressure for them to advance since the other host, Austria, is seen as the weakest side and it would be considered a success if they do not end up last of their group! The Swiss are an interesting side, they qualified for the last World Cup after winning a contentious home and away knock out game with Turkey and then finishing first of their group in Germany. With a nation behind them can we expect the Swiss to progress in their tournament? Overall they bring a solid and experienced squad with no real superstars but with a solid block. The Player to watch - Frei, the striker will be lean on heavily to score goals and put pressure on their opponents' defense.
- Turkey - This is a team in transition, having lost such established stars as Sukur. It is difficult to determine which team will show up, they finished as runners up in their group, behind natural rival Greece, but in an overall weak group. A 2-2 draw versus Belarus in a friendly does not inspire confidence for the task at hand. A match up with Switzerland should prove interesting based on the incidents from the World Cup qualifying match. The Player to watch - Aurelio who will be tasked to orchestrate the midfield and team. He plays for Fenerbache so he understands the pressures of playing in big games.
- Portugal - Ronaldo is too talented for this team not to get to the next stage.
- Switzerland - Home field advantage and an experience squad gets them through
- Czech Republic - A team in transition, Peter Cech will not be enough to get them through, opening with Switzerland is not best scenario
- Turkey - Too many questions, not enough talent to get through
Austria, Croatia, Germany, Poland
- Austria - Yikes, this team is bad. How bad? Mozambique and Bolivia are ranked just ahead of them in the FIFA world rankings...ouch. There was even a motion raised within Austria to have the squad pull out of the tournament for fear of embarrassing themselves. I cannot even pretend to know anyone on the team, so not sure what to say about this team. Player to watch - the fans, will they stick with their team?
- Croatia - With Brazilian born Eduardo in the line up this team could be viewed as a dark horse, without him they are an outsider. Their coach Bilic has done a great job of creating a team that works well together and is solid. However they will lack the creativity and deadly striking capabilities of Eduardo. They remain a dangerous team but not one I see going as far as they could have prior to losing their talented striker. Player to watch - whoever steps up upfront, whether it be Olic or Petric one of these two or both will have to fill a huge void left by Eduardo's absence.
- Germany - The Nationalmannshaft is being touted as many as the favorites to win this Euro addition and add to their 3 titles. I am still scratching my head why so many pundits are so high on the German team. Many point to the fact they had a great World Cup run...I would argue they had a good World Cup run playing on their home soil. They had an easy group, faced Sweden in the first knock out round (a perennial underachiever), beat Argentina yes but that was more due to poor management on the part of the Argentine coach...how can Messi stay on the bench the entire game??? And then Germany lost to eventual champs Italy in the Semis, yes Germany defeated Portugal in the third place game but is that really a true measure or just an exhibition game where on team was already mentally back on the beaches in Portugal while Germany looked to make their home fans happy? Pundits then say, well look at their qualifying games they were dominant. Again, not sure that is the case. Take away the embarrassing 13 goal drubbing of San Marino (I think my men's league team could play San Marino tough) and what you have is a standard campaign. They had a relatively simple group and still found a way to have draws against Cyprus, Ireland and Wales....and they split the games against the Czechs. This team has talent on paper, but not sure that talent is to the level it is hyped up to be. Klose is getting long in the tooth and Podolski has not lived up to the hype his talent has brought on him. Lehmann remains a weak link, he barely got any playing time this season for Arsenal and when he did found new ways to make mistakes...remember the Fulham game where he inexplicably misplayed a back pass right into the path of a Fulham player? The key remains Ballack and Gomez, does the veteran Ballack play to the level he is capable and can Gomez carry forward his goal scoring? Player to watch - Ballack, the Chelsea man must be in top form if this team is to advance very far.
- Poland - Polska had a great qualifying campaign, finishing first in their group which contained Portugal, not bad for a nation that previously had never qualified for the Euros. Yet they then turn around an lose to the United States at home in a friendly...hmmm. Which team will show up in the alps? They do have a solid midfield on paper and an experienced coach to guide them but their true strength lies in goal where they can look to a number of keepers playing at big clubs in Europe - Boruc at Celtic, Dudek at Real Madrid, Kuszscak at Manchester United or even Fabianski at Arsenal, too bad only one can play at a time. Player to watch - Boruc, the keeper might be called upon to keep his team in games especially in the opener against the Germans, if he plays well they have a chance to get out of the group.
- Germany
- Croatia
- Poland
- Austria
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