France draw the host...and dodge a bullet

Phew....what else can you say...Les Bleus somehow dodge a bullet, ok they dodged 7 bullets...and get into the South Africa group. Were the South Africans not hosting this tournament, you would think France were the #1 seed of this group. First if you have been living under a rock, do not have access to any web site other than the Frog (that would be good for my views!) or have not had a chance to see here is the group for Les Bleus, which is Group A -

Group A

Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
South Africa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mexico	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Uruguay	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
France	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

What is interesting is you have nations from 4 different confederations - Africa, Europe, North America and South America - so France will not have to face another UEFA side. Plus there are 3 World Cup titles in this group! I will go into the entire draw in another post but this one will focus on Les Bleus and Group A.

Here is the schedule...just as important as who you draw is when you play them:

Group A

Match	Date	Venue			Results
1	11 June	Johannesburg		South Africa	-	Mexico
2	11 June	Cape Town		Uruguay	-	France
17	16 June	Tshwane/Pretoria		South Africa	-	Uruguay
18	17 June	Polokwane		France	-	Mexico
33	22 June	Rustenburg		Mexico	-	Uruguay
34	22 June	Mangaung/Bloemfontein		France	-	South Africa

Let us look at each side:

South Africa - World Ranking #86 - Arguably the weakest host nation of any World Cup (even Switzerland in 1954 were a strong side), they were not even able to qualify for their own continental tournament. Ok they might be the weakest nation in the tournament - based on the FIFA World Rankings (New Zealand is 77th and North Korea are 84th, even Haiti is ahead of South Africa) They do have some solid players such as Pienaar who plays for Everton in the Premier League. However they might no have their star striker Benni McCarthy who remains at odds with his national side. Of course they will have an experienced manager in Parriera who led his native Brazil to the title in 1994, however he did quit over grumblings that he was at odds with the federation, not sure those issues have gone away. South Africa will clearly have a nation behind them, and we know what happened last time they hosted a World Cup...they won it all. Okay that was rugby where the Boks are not strangers to success...but having the home field advantage should be good for something.



They did play well in the Confed Cup they hosted last summer, playing Brazil and Spain tough in the knock out stages, so they do have something to build on. A host nation is always dangerous to face. Especially one that no one expects much from.

Mexico - World Ranking #15 - El Tri qualified for the World Cup but went through some rough patches, however as I have always stated the US and Mexico should ALWAYS qualify from the CONCACAF. With players such as Vela, Dos Santos, Blanco you should be the class of your federation. They did win the Gold cup completely destroying their hated rivals in the process. Vela and Dos Santos were unstoppable in the match, granted the US sent their "C" team to the finals, but the offensive show from the Mexicans was a reminder of the potential that is within that squad -



However they have been hot and cold on the biggest stage - also they will be playing in South Africa during the winter, we all know that El Tri does not like playing in the cold. El Tri have the talent to go far...or crash out in the group stages. There will be some increased pressure as the youth side that won the World Title a few years ago are now the generation that the nation will look to carry the squad. I think that the management merry go round has been settled with Aguirre in his second stint with his national side. It will be interesting to see which team decides to show up in South Africa.

Uruguay - World Ranking #19 - The 2 time World Cup winner is one of the more difficult nations to play, why? First they are very physical, not afraid of physical contact, hard defending and overall muscular play. Second they have some very dangerous players in the form of Forlan and Rodriguez. It will be interesting to see how Rodriguez plays since he played for PSG and was touted as the next superstar, unfortunately PSG sold him before he could realize his potential. They played a solid campaign...almost taking out Argentina in the final game which would have seen them through directly rather than following the France route of having to go via play offs. There is also a World Cup history between France and Uruguay, most recently in the terrible 2002 showing where Uruguay clearly threw the French off their game and forced poor decisions by Les Bleus.





France - World Ranking #7 - Ah Les Bleus...dodged a bullet for sure. They got the worst #1 seed available, unlike their other high ranking nation that was dropped into Pot 4, Portugal, who drew Ivory Coast and Brazil! Ouch. France have a very winnable group to say the least. Now will Domenech under-manage his squad into a 3rd place finish? Very possible!

So what does this mean? One caveat, any prediction I make today I reserve the right to change 79 times before June 11 2010...so what will happen? Ok this is the most obvious and overstated terms - all depends on the first game. But facing Uruguay first is difficult, I think they will be the most difficult team for Les Bleus. With Forlan, Suarez and Rodriguez they have the fire power to counter France and find a way to win 1-0. I think that being the opening match both nations will play the game very cautiously - France 1 Uruguay 1. Other match - Mexico defeats South Africa 1-0.

This will make game #2...the most important game of the round!! France have always played El Tri very well, defeating them in a pre World Cup 2006 match in Paris, easily defeating them and doing the same in a prior Confed Cup match in 2001. France will know Dos Santos and Vela well since one plays with the majority of the French defensive back at Arsenal and the other one has played in England. I think that El Tri will again struggle against a European nation - France 2 Mexico 0. Uruguay 1-1 against South Africa.

France will head into the final match against the hosts, I have a feeling South Africa will already be on knock out of the tournament so will be only motivated to save some honor. France will need a result to go through. Remember the last time these nations faced off in the World Cup...granted that match was in Mareilles! France find a way to overcome the national side - France 3 South Africa 1. Uruguay and Mexico draw 0-0.

France finish first with 7 pts
Mexico 4 pts
Uruguay 3pts
South Africa 1 pt

Again I reserve the right to change my predictions...I could easily see France lose the opener to Uruguay, struggle against El Tri and hope for a win and some help when they face South Africa. Let the speculation begin!!!

World Cup pots....France get what they deserve for poor performances

So Les Bleus and Domenech will have the daunting tasking of potentially facing one of the top seeds in the group stages at the World Cup. No doubt this is due to the terrible showing at the Euros coupled with the struggle France had to qualify for the World Cup...thanks Domenech!

Here are the pots -

Pot 1 (seeds): South Africa, Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Argentina, England

Pot 2 (Asia, Oceania and North/Central America): Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, United States, Mexico, Honduras

Pot 3 (Africa and South America): Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria, Algeria, Paraguay, Chile, Uruguay

Pot 4 (Europe): France, Portugal, Slovenia, Switzerland, Greece, Serbia, Denmark, Slovakia

France have done themselves no favors by not playing up to their talent level and are now going to be forced to take a very difficult route to the knock out stages. Short of being drawn with the host - South Africa - France will be the underdog facing any of the other seeded nations. The most difficult draw for Les Bleus -

Brazil, Ivory Coast, Mexico...that would be a serious group of death and I could see France finishing last in such a group.

The easiest group - South Africa, North Korea, Algeria (although that match would be very tense).

France have been matched up with some of these nations in past tournaments - facing England in the 2004 Euros where a late game rally saw them snatch the full 3 points through a Zizou free kick and penalty. However with Capello running the 3 Lions it would be interesting for Dumbenech to have to face another Italian manager, I am sure if this draw happens the Irish might root for the hated English for once.



Holland has also been in Les Bleus' group during the last Euro...and that did not end very well: a 4-1 drubbing by Oranje. Which could have been worse, the Dutch sliced through the old French defense with ease. Speaking of that Euro...France also had Italy in their group, no need to dive into the history between these neighboring nations from the Euro 2000 finals, to the World Cup 2006 finals, through the qualifiers for the Euro 2008 as well as the group stages for the Euro...France and Espana have not been in the same group since the 1996 Euros in England...anyone want to guess what the result was? That is correct a draw...facing the defending European champions would be a daunting task. I am sure Spain will be very motivated to exact some revenge on Les Bleus for knocking out what looked like a solid challenger during the 2006 World Cup. Plus such a match up would make Jose very nervous...

Being draw with Germany...well that match up needs no hype. All one needs to do is look at what happened between West Germany and France in the 1982 World Cup semi finals, if these two nations get matched up I am sure this will be brought up. I know I will!! Facing Argentina would be an iinteresting draw pitting two managers who have been disappointments to their home nations. What would be interesting would be if Argentina and France played and would meet in the last game of the group...with both nations already eliminated! Then Maradona and Domenech could commiserate after the match about where they will be looking for new jobs. Finally a draw versus Brazil might be the most interesting and difficult. Les Bleus have always had good success against the Samba boys, they are one nation that for some reason, Les Bleus can play well against on a regular basis. In addition, if France lose to the Samba boys, Domenech will have a ready made excuse! So Les Bleus will have a very difficult road to take, this is what happens when you do not take care of business during qualifiers. Combine being dropped from the seeded pot with the FFF's continued faith in having Domenech run the team will translate into a very difficult time in South Africa...

Let us see what happens on Friday, of course much depends on the groups but also how the games get scheduled. France could be drawn with a Brazil or Spain but may face them in the last group game, if they already have a full 6 points by then the match might only be for 1st place...but my pessimist continues to grow.

South Africa - World Cup 2010 draw - the probable pots

Ok so I, like many many others out there, decided to have a little fun an did a mock group draw, rather than attempt another exercise in fantasy world I wanted to look at what could and should be the pots and the teams that those in Pot 1 would want to avoid and those they would rather face before the actual draw happens this Friday.

Again, here are what the Pots should look like -

Pot one (seeds): Argentina, Brazil, England, Germany, Italy, Spain, hosts South Africa and France.

Pot two (rest of Uefa): Denmark, Greece, Holland, Portugal, Slovenia, Serbia, Slovakia, Switzerland.

Pot three (AFC + Concacaf): Australia, New Zealand, Honduras, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Mexico, United States.

Pot four (CAF + rest of Conmebol): Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Paraguay, Nigeria, Uruguay.

Clearly the weakest nation from the first pot is South Africa (let us refrain from any Domenech and France jokes for a few). The host nation could be the weakest since....Japan in 2002. Now Japan did make it out of the group stages that World Cup, finishing first of their group but losing in the first knock out game to Turkey. However, depending on how the groups fall, South Africa could become the first host not to make it out of their group. All the other nations in Pot 1 could go deep in the tournament...well assuming France is led by a real manager otherwise they will go 0-3.

Pot 2 - clearly you want to avoid the Dutch. They are always a tough team. Of course sometimes they resemble a Domenech led team - bags of talent no leadership from the manager. Portugal is also an interesting nation, one of the semi finalists from the last World Cup they have one of the best players in the world - Ronaldo - have bags of talent as well yet sometimes disappoint in big tournaments. None of the other teams would be easy, however Slovenia might be the "easiest" of the lot. Although I am not sure how Greece will do, either they will play their boring defensive minded football that won them the Euros in Portugal and challenge for the knock out stage, or go down in 3 games.

Pot 3 - this is a very interesting mix. The Mexicans, Australians and Americans are the cream of this crop. Although much depends on which Mexican side shows up. The US cannot get off to a poor start otherwise they will fade quickly. I do not fear the South Koreans as much as their record would indicate. I think that outside of playing in Asia, the South Koreans are not as formidable as one would expect. The weakest side are their northern neighbors - North Korea - although do not forget what happened in 1966 - beat Italy 1-0 and then had a 3-0 lead on Portugal only to fall 5-3 and lose out on a spot in the 1/2 finals.

Pot 4 - Where the steel of Africa resides - Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Nigeria and Ghana will all pose teams great headaches. All these nations are formidable. It would be interesting to see Algeria and France in the same group...that would have lots of drama! None of the South American nations should be underestimated as well, all of which will contend for a spot in the knock out stage. The weakest remains the Algerians, although drawn against France and that would be scary for Les Bleus. The strongest to me are the Ivory Coast, although they sometimes underwhelm based on what they should be.

A great group of death would be Brazil - Holland - Mexico - Ivory Coast...finally get Brazil some difficult group matches. The worst possible group: South Africa - Slovenia-New Zealand - Algeria...

We will all see what unfolds in a few days!