Welcome to the "Frog," my little piece of cyberspace to talk about my passion - le foot (or soccer for my North American friends) especially anything around French football. Of course I will have some guest contributors that might want to discuss other aspects of footy!
I support Les Bleus, Arsenal and PSG but really just love watching, analyzing and following the beautiful game.
"You have to trust your teammates, always. If not we are lost."
So the US mens national soccer team won their 5th Gold Cup title yesterday, defeating surprise finalist Panama, 1-0. When is the ticker tape parade? Cover of the New York Times, Sports Illustrated and Time? Okay Okay, I am being a tad harsh. Yes I am a total Euro-snob when it comes to football. I always giggle when I hear the World Cup being called the European Cup, but with Argentina and Brazil. Of course I am also not as football ignorant as I just came across. The international game has benefit with the rise of African nations, such as Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Cameroon to name a few. As well as the rise of Asian powers such as South Korea, Japan and Australia. And, the game has benefited from seeing the richest country in the world - the United States - start to put a solid side out for World Cups and other international matches. We should also start seeing nations such as Iraq making more noise in international venues. All this is good for the international game. But back to the Gold Cup.
Reason why I am saying hohummm...is that it has become clear that nations like the United States and Mexico have outgrown the Gold Cup. And really have outgrown the CONCACAF. That is my real ramble. I have written about this before, but after this Gold Cup finals it only reinforces my thinking about the US and Mexico being part of the Gold Cup. I realize that you play the conference you are in. But look to the example of Australia, who realized they had outgrown the Oceania region and moved into Asia. Australia was finding some success in football, getting to World Cups and having aspirations of getting beyond the group stages. However, the nation recognized that only in getting a more challenging region could they grow as a team that could do better at the World Cup.
Could the US and Mexico benefit from changing regions...say join CONEMBOL region.
Think about the celebration after beating Brazil!
Okay okay, I know what fans of the US and Mexico will say...why head to tough region when they are quasi guaranteed a spot at the World Cup by staying with CONCACAF! I mean seriously...the top three nations make it and the fourth plays the first place team from Oceania! But think about the following, how much better for the overall US and Mexican teams being forced to play high pressure games against Brazil or Argentina...going to Uruguay would be better than a match in Jamaica! I know that the US plays some intense games like away to Guatemala, but not sure that is as intense as away to the South American nations. Granted the US and Mexico would not longer be guaranteed a spot at the World Cup, but cutting their teeth on these matches would better in the long run. Of course FIFA would have to redistribute the qualifying spots between CONEMBOL and CONCACAF.
Finally, imagine the benefit for the US and Mexico to play regularly in the Copa America rather than the Gold Cup! Having to play tournaments with the likes of Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Ecuador, Argentina, Chile etc rather than Panama and Costa Rica will be a much greater challenge.
I know you have to play the regional tournaments you find yourself in and a title is a title...crap if Les Bleus could win a trophy on a regular basis I would be happy! Well we did win the U20 World Cup!! But for the United States and Mexico to real grow as national teams they need to test themselves with a real qualifying campaign. It will probably never happen...but something that would be great to see. Think about the excitement of hosting Brazil in Columbus for a World Cup qualifier, or seeing Messi and Argentina coming to New York for a qualifier!
So the Gold Cup final was this past weekend, I had wanted to lay down some key strokes and give some thoughts on the finals earlier, but work sometimes gets in the way of my musing. Better late than never! For those of you that did not watch or do not know what the Gold Cup is, a quick recap.
This is the CONCACAF football championships, it is held every 2 years (which minimizes the title in my opinion) and the winner gets to go to the Confederation Cup the following year (assuming the Gold Cup version is held prior to the World Cup). Recently the finals have been another opportunity to see a US v Mexico match and to once again watch the game played on US soil in front of a predominately Mexican crowd! That was the case again this finals edition in Pasadena.
The game itself was actually exciting, the US going up early 2-0 only to concede 4 straight goals. Granted Dempsey smashed a shot off the cross bar when the US was trailing 3-2, had that goal gone in things might have turned out very differently. Both teams also sent most of their A side players - Donovan, Dempsey, Bradley, Howard et al for the US, Chicharito, Dos Santos, Marquez et al for El Tri. Mexico did expose that the US does a poor job with in game management, remember last Confederation Cup final when the US had a 2-0 lead on the Brazilians? The US continued to play a more wide open game after being up 2-0 and ended up paying for it, as Mexico's speed and offensive talent exploited the space. Eventually finding their way to a 4-2 victory...including a wonder goal from former Barcelona player Dos Santos:
But this post is not about the game itself, but about the value of the Gold Cup. What struck me was the reaction from many of the US players and pundits post game, it was not about the fact they lost a title or lost to hated rival Mexico...but that they cannot go to Brazil next summer for the Confederation Cup. Hmmmm interesting. I do not think I hear the losing team in the Euros say "shucks, we lost the title and now we cannot go to the Confederations Cup." To me this is indicative of what could be holding back the development of US Soccer - regular competitive games.
The reality for the US is that they have graduated, 20 years ago, playing in CONCACAF was good for the US. They had a chance to get to the World Cup, played smaller nations that were more passionate for football but clearly were trailing in regards to resources. When the US qualified for the 1990 edition of the World Cup in Italy, it was the first time in 40 years, they attended the global sporting event...promptly getting trounced losing all 3 games. However since then, the US has qualified for every edition since, and reaching two knock out stages and the 1/4 finals in 2002 (some would argue they outplayed eventual runner-ups Germany in that game and were it not for a missed hand ball might have played a semi final). That is a good run. But if the United States is serious about being a legitimate threat to go deeper and gasp...maybe even win the trophy...they cannot rely on Gold Cup and Confederation Cup as their "competitive" matches. I discount World Cup qualifiers, why? With 3 direct spots to the World Cup and a fourth that goes to play off, are the US and Mexico ever really in jeopardy of not qualifying? As I have posted in the past, the US needs to get out of their comfort zone if they expect to grow, footballing wise.
Unlike the US, Mexico will head to the Copa America in Argentina, and face some serious competition. El Tri will face, Chile, Peru and Uruguay in their group....much more serious than Panama and Jamaica. European nations are never taking a break, with the World Cup and European Cups every other year there is a constant stream of high charged qualifying matches to reach these tournaments. The US must, if it will not rework its World Cup qualification and why would they, find a way to participate in the Copa America on a regular basis. Since 1993 they have only participate in 3 editions...why has Japan participated??? The US must get into this tournament. The US must add another real tournament to their dance card if they want to grow.
Otherwise the US will be stuck lamenting another lose in the Gold Cup finals and not being able to go to the Confederation Cup...but looking forward to World Cup qualifiers versus Turks & Caicos, Bermuda and El Salvador.
A great article from SI about the proposed new World Cup qualification process from CONCACAF. The main take away - with this new system it will be very unlikely to see Mexico v USA matches played during qualifying. Both nations are head and shoulders ahead of all the other CONCACAF nations and will never be paired in the same group. The argument for this format is to give a number of the smaller nations more matches to play and develop their talent pool, a worthy goal but one that seems to be skewed. You want these smaller nations to get more World Cup qualifying games? Then create a pre-qualifier tournament for these nations, for example:
Take the top 5 CONCACAF nations and they are in the final group.
The remaining nations are broken into groups - 5 groups of 6 nations. The winners of each group move on.
The 10 nation group then plays home and away to determine the ranking.
Top 3 go to World Cup, 4th team goes to playoff.
I realize this might not work from a time perspective but there should be a way to make this work. This would give smaller nations more games that count, while preserving the competitive aspect of CONCACAF qualifiers - aka Mexico v USA.
The real issue for me is that CONCACAF does not need to give the minnows more games but needs to get their big 2 more serious matches. I have always thought CONCACAF should work with South America to merge their qualifiers. I realize this is a pipe dream, but for nations like Mexico and the US, being forced to play regular qualifiers against the likes of Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, Chile, Peru, Uruguay and the rest of the South American nations would help their teams develop. As Wahl points out in the article, CONCACAF does not have the equivalent of the European Cup of Nations to bridge World Cups. While I am not convinced the US and Mexico will ever move to the level of Germany, Italy, Brazil and the rest who are legitimate World Cup contenders on a regular basis, the ability to play more serious, more competitive matches on a regular basis are the only ways they will move the needle when it comes to competing on the world stage.
I realize that Gulati will never want to jeopardize the US' ability to qualify every 4 years to the World Cup. As it is currently constructed the US and Mexico are both almost 100% guaranteed to qualify, under the new format they will be 101% guaranteed. Merging with South America will drastically drop that percentage, but it would give those squads more serious international matches and potentially make the US and Mexico legitimate contenders for international silverware. Alas, I am sure that the revenue from attending the globe's biggest sporting event every 4 years is too important to sacrifice for an opportunity to truly develop your program.
A great weekend of football - good goals, heartbreaking games and controversy - what else would one want? So we are set for the first half of the 1/4 finals
Uruguay v Ghana
Argentina v Germany
How did these teams get there:
Uruguay: In the first game of the round of 16, the South Americans played the surprise Asian side South Korea. What was one of the least hyped game turned out to be a good match between two well disciplined and well organized sides. The combo between Suarez and Forlan looks like it is starting to click, which is dangerous for the other nations. Both sides had chances, an early South Korean free kick, from Chu Young Park, smashed into the post having successfully found its way around the wall. But poor defense and inexplicable goalkeeping from South Korea allowed a cross from Forlan bypass at least 3 defenders and the keeper (who mush have thought the ball was destined to go wide) only to see Suarez come in and smash home the shot.
The South Koreans fought back to level but were done in by a wonder strike from Suarez. The Uruguay defense (only 1 goal conceded all tournament) and combination of Suarez - Forlan - Cavani is proving lethal.
Ghana: For the second time in 4 years the Black Stars knock out the Stars and Stripes...yes I stole that from some TV talking head. After the World Cup is over and when the US players get a chance to reflect I think they will rue this missed opportunity. While I think the talk of a semi final run were a but premature, there is no doubt that the way the opponents were being set up, there was a legitimate chance for the Americans. Let us face it, had they finished second in the group does anyone really believe they could have taken out the German team we saw today? Or an Argentina team in the 1/4 finals? However Ghana took their chances and deserve to go through. The first 20 -30 minutes it appeared that Ghana could score another goal or 2 after opening up the score through Boateng after a terrible turn over in the midfield by Clark. However at the half the US brought in Feilhaber and changed the complexion of the match. The US controlled the midfield and put some real pressure on the Ghana back 4 earning a deserved PK that Landycakes banked in.
But the problem that haunted the United States bit again in extra time when a harmless and blind clearance from their own half feel to Gyan who cut between Demerit and Bocanegra and lashed on to a pile driver of a left foot sending Ghana to a 2-1 victory. This encapsulated the problems with the United States team - shoddy central defense. Demerit, Onyewu and Bocanegra all struggled at different stages of this World Cup, the wide players did not cover themselves in glory either. This lack of strong defending forced the United States to chase 3 out 4 games this World Cup, not a formula for success. A second big issue were the strikers. Altidore's touch let him down all tournament. He had some good situations when he was holding up the ball or knocking it on as he did on the second goal against Slovenia. However he had a chance in the second half against Ghana but his heavy touch allowed the keeper to cut him down. He did almost score a spectacular goal with 10 minutes to go, but too often lost possession trying to do his best Messi impersonation. Add to this Findley's first half attempt from 18 yards out when he could have taken another touch or tried to dribble the keeper - not a shot an international level striker needs to settle on. If the US had a striker like Gyan they might still be playing...
Germany: In a much anticipated match up against hated rival England the game turned into a rout exposing England for what it has become - old, slow and without creativity. Of course we had another controversial refereeing decision when a Lampard shot clearly rebounded behind the goal line, at the time it would have made the game 2-2. Instead the Germans headed into the half time with a 2-1 lead. As England pushed in the second half to equalize they were badly caught out gifting Mueller a brace. In the end the better team did win, Germany demonstrated as usual, a great organization and discipline. With World Cup veterans like Klose, Podolozki and Schweinsteiger supported by the youth of Ozil and Mueller it became academic after Germany maintained their 2-1 lead to start the second half.
What was disappointing were the Three Lions. Entering the competition, as it happens every World Cup, the calls for winning the ultimate crown for the first time since 1966 was thought withing reach. With an "EASY" group, many in the notoriously overzealous British press had the English making a serious run, granted I think Sports Illustrated had the English in a semi final as well. Even thought the English had a very positive qualifying campaign and apparently the right man in Capello, they never convinced during their 4 games. They clearly had problems in central defense - Terry looked like a beaten man and they could never figure out who to replace Ferdinand. The Klose goal resembled the Gyan goal a big boot down the park, striker splits the central defenders and slots home... Rooney was completely lost. Even the French scored more goals than Rooney - 1 vs 0! Not sure if the Manchester United striker was still battling the effects of his ankle injury, but he clearly had a tournament to forget. Of course the necessity to have Lampard and Gerrard on the pitch together still does not work...sad part is the world has known this for years yet manager after manager feels the need to shoe horn both into the starting XI. It seems that this side could have used a Theo Walcott at some point during their 4 games. Otherwise there was no apparent width or pace, Joe Cole having been used sparingly...Finally still not sure how a football nation such as England cannot develop any quality holding midfielders. It is shocking. Germany had their way through the midfield, no on wearing a red shirt could even feign being able to check the German attack. England will have to rebuild, the nice thing for the Three Lions is this should mark the end of Terry, Lampard and Gerrard as internationals. All strong players individually, but especially in the case of the two midfielders - cannot coexist on the same pitch.
Argentina: The Albiceleste looked very strong once again. Granted the first goal should have been ruled off side, but it was not...however the Tevez - Messi - Higuain front line is deadly. The fact that Di Maria has not really done much and Messi has not scored a goal should give Germany and any other team that might face Argentina food for thought. Mexico fought hard all match but were over-matched.The goal from Hernandez was a piece of beauty...what I thought was comic was the comment on ABC from John Harkes who criticized Romero, the Argentine keeper, for not "protecting his near post." Um hey John, the shot from Hernandez was unstoppable, even had the keeper anticipated that spot he could never have reached it....just because you could not hit that shot in your best days, give the striker credit for a fantastic first touch and finish. Speaking of goals, the 3rd Argentine goal was also a thing of beauty an absolute pile driver from distance.
The one area of concern for Argentina is the back 4...Maradona keeps playing central defenders as all back 4. And the goalkeeping is very wobbly right now. The key for Argentina moving forward will be how Mascherano holds up the defensive responsibilities in the midfield. However their is no doubting the offensive fire power and creative flair from this team, do not forget that Aguero and Milito are available off the bench. Frightening. Finally, it is clear this team wants to play for the sky blue and white kit as well as for their manager (unlike Les Bleus). This is a very good combination heading into the 1/4 finals.
Finally this weekend was also mired by some terrible refereeing decisions or lack thereof. The least egregious was the Tevez non offside call on the first goal. However the one that will really created debate for years...at least until FIFA wakes up and does something to improve officiating.
I am sure Blatter is breathing somewhat after Germany won 4-1...but had the goal be allowed, which it should have, it could have and most likely would have changed the game. Why? Not sure England is pushing up the pitch so get the equalizer.They probably do not get caught on a break if the game is 2-2. Of course FIFA released some nonsensical statement about video not being usable to determine goals because it would open up the call to use video for other aspects of the game and that there would need to be training for how to use video which is really complicated and television is still to new....blah blah blah. Here is an idea Sepp, you ignorant moron, you already have all the referees wired with headsets. The 4th official is already sitting by a monitor - how else did the Zizou head butt get caught! For plays dealing with a goal, allow the 4th official to give the referee on the field a hand. In this situation it would have taken all of 3 seconds for the 4th official to get on his little telemarketer headset and say "ball crossed line, goal." But instead we have the bureaucratic, useless, profiteer, Sepp Blatter, making some idiotic statement about technology and the beauty if human error and why "technology" cannot be used to call goal or no goal. Grow a brain Sepp wake up to the 21st century!
Of course Sepp has a Twitter account...so I would encourage EVERYONE to tweet @SeppBlatter for as long as it takes to get him to wake up to this need.
Anyways, 4 more games to come. Brazil v Chile will be very interesting, I think Chile can give the Samba Boyz a scare and of course we have the Iberian derby - Portugal v Spain. Hopefully we do not also have more refereeing issues.
So tomorrow Group A will wrap up their first round matches and more importantly the soap opera that is the French national team will come to an end - Raymond Domenech's 6 year tenure as the manager of the national side will come to an end....finally. With France sitting tied with South Africa with 1pt, while Uruguay and Mexico have 4 pts.
It appears all but academic since a draw will ensure both Mexico and Uruguay will head on to the final 16. Not so fast..okay I realize this is grasping at straws however...looking towards the last 16 and beyond. The winner of this group goes into, arguably, the easier side of the bracket.
Clearly the winner of Group A will head to knockout side including the runner up of Group B, D and winner of Group C. Whoever ends first, they would face either South Korea or Greece if they win that match most likely face the United States/Slovenia or Ghana/Serbia. No world beating nations. However the team that ends in second will have to face Argentina in the first round of knock out. And if they get past that, may have to face England/Germany...quite a difference in terms of coming in first or second in the group. While all signs point to a lackluster draw between Mexico and Uruguay...there might be some motivation for both sides to seek a victory to ensure they miss Messi and co in the first stage of knock out. Also, both sides know that it will most likely take a 3 to 4 goal victory from Les Bleus to overcome the goal differential, meaning a 1-0 loss will not be fatal to the losing team, but could prove monumental for the winner.
While it smells, walks, talks and looks like a draw, something tells me that both sides might be more motivated than many expect to try and get the full 3 points...unless of course France are up 3-0 at half time....then again France need to score ONE goal before they can score 3 or more! Hey one can always dream. And based on the drama that has clouded the French camp the past few days we could see a team that comes out and completely implodes losing 2-0 to South Africa, or somehow finds motivation as a unit to show the world and management that they have been held back by Dumbenech. Somehow I fear the former but would love to see the latter.
What can you say...France looked completely flat, had no heart, no desire and no idea what they were doing on the pitch. From the start it was clear that Mexico came to play and knew what they had to do to get the result. This result encapsulates what has proven to be a wasted 2+ years with this team and manager.
The Good:
Only one more game with Dumbenech at the helm. The friendly that will be played on Tuesday between the host and France will be the final game of Domenech's tenure and based on what I am seeing today I would not be surprised if the hosts got a victory. Laurent Blanc you have a monumental task ahead of you, but there is only one way and that is up!
Mexico. Kudos to El Tri, they came out firing on all cylinders took it to the French defense and were not
afraid to take their chances when offered to them. Unlike their first game when they escaped the tie fortunate to have not lost to South Africa they were clearly the better team this match and earned their rightful 3 points. Dos Santos was completely unstoppable, he was eating Gallas' lunch and dinner at will. Salcido was making dangerous runs from his fullback spot and kept catching France out of position - forcing Sagna to make emergency covering runs.
The Bad:
Complete lack of game by France. There was nothing on the pitch today. Ribery as the "creative" player nothing, Anelka as the lone striker nothing, Govou on the right less than nothing, Gallas terrible, Sagna looked out of sorts....France played incredibly poorly. There was clearly no strategy or system of game that the French players were aware of or were attempting to execute on.
We know there is no leadership on the side line, there was clearly none on the pitch. Domenech looked like a defeated man from the start. No energy. No passion. He just stood there like a befuddled statue watching after France went down by a goal. And he leaves a sub on the bench! Hey dummy you are down 2-0 just getting a goal back could be huge but instead you leave - Henry and Cisse on the bench - TAKE OUT TOULALAN or a DEFENDER!!! Again I really should not blame Domenech anymore he cannot help himself and his ineptitude - Escalettes this is all on you!
No pride from the French players. None of the players appeared to care that they were completely dominated by Mexico and that they will be on a plane back to France in less than a week. Back to the leadership issue, this is what happens when you have a team run by a complete idiotic moron. 4 years ago you had players such as Thuram, Vieira, Makelele and Zidane who could at least lead from the pitch. This time there is neither.
The Ugly:
The ugly ugly part of all this is the wasted 2+ years France has had to suffer with Domenech at the helm. It is borderline criminal what the FFF and Escalettes have forced France to suffer by sticking with Inspector Clouseau. Let's face it, had France not shocked the footballing world 4 years ago Domenech's job was already on the line! After 2008 and a disastrous Euro he should have been sacked immediately upon leaving the pitch against Italy, go propose to your girlfriend....you're fired. It is not as if France did not have some options to be the national team manager. So what we have had to suffer was a wasted 2+ years. Players such as Vieira, Henry, Trezeguet and Coupet to name a few have been mishandled and will most likely have ended their career for France under a dark cloud - created by Domenech. It is also disgraceful how poorly the next generation has been handled - Mexes, Benzema, Nasri, Menez, Ben Arfa to name a few - have been constantly shuttled into the squad and then out without any real reason. Malouda was banished for a while only to be brought back as a starter. The fact that Dumbenech asked Makelele to come back for the World Cup is SHOCKING. With the likes of Toulalan, LDiarra, ADiarra, Diaby, Flamini, Mavuba just to name a few it is not as if France had a shortage of players at the holding spot. Just inexplicable. Add to this the inexcusable selecting of players such as Govou and Boumsong and it is baffling how Domenech has lasted this long. He has shown no ability to manage his team from a player perspective, on the field tactics, long term strategy or basic PR. Clearly his players have no respect for him and are not buying what he his selling. At least the Argentine players want to try and give efforts for Maradona! As my friend Sam stated, Domenech has been TRYING TO GET FIRED yet no one upstairs realized this. Alas my fellow supporters of Les Bleus, we have had to suffer with this idiot at the helm of our team, we cannot blame him too much since he cannot get out of his own way...we need to blame Escalettes for sticking by him for this long. Probably the only man on the planet who wanted to keep Inspector Clouseau this long.
DUMB AND DUMBER
So I sit here and turn my eyes and thoughts to Wednesday when Laurent Blanc will start his tenure as manager of Les Bleus. He has a mountain of task ahead of him, but the cupboard is clearly not bare, by any stretch of the imagination. Let us face it, there is only one way to go, that is up. The Euro qualifiers will be difficult, they always are, but France have a manageable group.
We have wasted over 2 years with this bumbling idiot running the team. It is a shame. It is painful. But things can only go up from here. Sometimes ineptitude gets rewarded this is a perfect case of that happening. I will not be surprised if South Africa beat Les Bleus on Tuesday and that France will challenge for the worst team in this tournament. It seems clear that being a supporter of Les Bleus the past few seasons is a combination of incredible highs - 1998 victory, 2006 finals and incredible lows - 2002 World Cup exit and the current iteration of the team. I guess we are due for a better outcome next time....one can hope.
Oh my, what to say...France look terrible. I think they are trying to reenact the Battle of Camaron allow the Mexican attacks to come in with superior numbers and defend with as few players as possible. Awful. Mexico has dominated this game when it comes to legitimate goal scoring chances.
Dos Santos is called off side early in the game, otherwise has a clear cut chance at goal. Salcido is completely tearing up the left side had a great chance early on only to see his shot smash into Lloris. Lloris was called into action again on as Salcido drops in a dangerous ball onto an on rushing Barrera, fortunately the Lyon keeper gets there just ahead of the attacking Mexican player. France have had no defensive answer for either Salcido or Dos Santos, I fear that if that keeps up one of them will make Les Bleus pay. On the other end of the pitch, Les Bleus have had a high work rate around the Mexican 18 yard box, but really no legitimate scoring chance, supposedly they had 8 shots on goal...I don't think I remember a single one. The only real threat to the Mexican goal was on a long clearance from Lloris that Malouda almost latched onto...that is pathetic.
I wish I had some faith that Inspector Clouseau has some solutions to offer...however I doubt it. I am sure we will not see Valbuena, probably get a Gignac on the right wing or an Henry as sweeper....I see Mexico getting a late goal and earning a deserved victory.
Both France and Mexico head into this match knowing that Uruguay have one foot into the next round after a resounding 3-0 victory over the hosts, while South Africa look to be the first host nation not to make the knock out stage. So heading into the game the standings look as follows -
With Uruguay at top with 4 points and just as importantly - a positive 3 goals for both El Tri and Les Bleus realize that they need to win otherwise the last day will be made that much more complicated. Granted a draw will keep everything in play for both nations going into their last match. There is a small advantage for France, why? They face South Africa, while it is never easy facing the host nation, with only a point from 2 games baring a minor miracle the hosts will just be playing for pride. While Uruguay and Mexico will both be chasing a win, regardless of what happens today. Here are the scenarios:
Mexico v France end in a draw - Uruguay are top of group for last game with 4 pts, France and Mexico at 2 points. The Uru v Mex game will be huge since they can both expect Fra to defeat RSA and therefore have 5 points. Uruguay could go for the draw and hope that France do not have more than a 3 goal victory so Uruguay could hope to finish top of group. Mexico would need to push for the victory to top Uruguay and go through.
France victory - Uru and Fra top with 4 points, Mex at 1pt. Mexico versus Uruguay match would be paramount for El Tri, since a Mexican victory by a large enough margin would get them over Uruguay, France would only need a draw to be guaranteed a spot but would look for a victory to avoid a possible match up against Argentina.
Mexico victory - Similar scenario as above except swap France and Mexico. Mex - Uru would both only need a draw to go through, the only question is who has a better goal difference. Again ending top of the group would avoid facing Argentina in the next stage so most likely Mexico would be looking for a win (as bad as France are, I doubt Mexico will win 3-0). France would hope that the game does not end in a draw and that they can get a large enough victory to sneak in on goal difference.
Bottom line, regardless of what happens today, the last game day will be very important for all 4 nations. Should be interesting.
Of course the pressure is more on Les Bleus, no surprise there. This game will either give Les Bleus a spring to their step or will put so much pressure on France that they might wilt in the final game versus the hosts. Add to this scenario the internal strife that is rumored to be ravaging the French camp, who knows what to expect today. Based on the latest reports we might expect the following formation -
Anelka might slot in place of Govou allowing Henry to play the point, regardless it appears the biggest victim of the latest putsch is Gourcuff. With Ribery potentially slotting it he middle of the park it will be interesting to see if the Bayern man can play the #10 role. He claimed earlier in the club season to be open to such a move, not sure testing this out in game #2 of the World Cup is the most intelligent move...then again we are talking about Domenech. Of course I am not sure why you would roll out Govou once again who has been completely ineffective on the right wing especially when you have options - Valbeuna or at worse Anelka.
France will be most likely facing a 3-4-3 which might open up some space at the back for the French attack. We shall see.
I have my optimist hat on so I think Les Bleus will emerge victorious 2-0. goals from Ribery and Malouda.
Phew....what else can you say...Les Bleus somehow dodge a bullet, ok they dodged 7 bullets...and get into the South Africa group. Were the South Africans not hosting this tournament, you would think France were the #1 seed of this group. First if you have been living under a rock, do not have access to any web site other than the Frog (that would be good for my views!) or have not had a chance to see here is the group for Les Bleus, which is Group A -
What is interesting is you have nations from 4 different confederations - Africa, Europe, North America and South America - so France will not have to face another UEFA side. Plus there are 3 World Cup titles in this group! I will go into the entire draw in another post but this one will focus on Les Bleus and Group A.
Here is the schedule...just as important as who you draw is when you play them:
South Africa - World Ranking #86 - Arguably the weakest host nation of any World Cup (even Switzerland in 1954 were a strong side), they were not even able to qualify for their own continental tournament. Ok they might be the weakest nation in the tournament - based on the FIFA World Rankings (New Zealand is 77th and North Korea are 84th, even Haiti is ahead of South Africa) They do have some solid players such as Pienaar who plays for Everton in the Premier League. However they might no have their star striker Benni McCarthy who remains at odds with his national side. Of course they will have an experienced manager in Parriera who led his native Brazil to the title in 1994, however he did quit over grumblings that he was at odds with the federation, not sure those issues have gone away. South Africa will clearly have a nation behind them, and we know what happened last time they hosted a World Cup...they won it all. Okay that was rugby where the Boks are not strangers to success...but having the home field advantage should be good for something.
They did play well in the Confed Cup they hosted last summer, playing Brazil and Spain tough in the knock out stages, so they do have something to build on. A host nation is always dangerous to face. Especially one that no one expects much from.
Mexico - World Ranking #15 - El Tri qualified for the World Cup but went through some rough patches, however as I have always stated the US and Mexico should ALWAYS qualify from the CONCACAF. With players such as Vela, Dos Santos, Blanco you should be the class of your federation. They did win the Gold cup completely destroying their hated rivals in the process. Vela and Dos Santos were unstoppable in the match, granted the US sent their "C" team to the finals, but the offensive show from the Mexicans was a reminder of the potential that is within that squad -
However they have been hot and cold on the biggest stage - also they will be playing in South Africa during the winter, we all know that El Tri does not like playing in the cold. El Tri have the talent to go far...or crash out in the group stages. There will be some increased pressure as the youth side that won the World Title a few years ago are now the generation that the nation will look to carry the squad. I think that the management merry go round has been settled with Aguirre in his second stint with his national side. It will be interesting to see which team decides to show up in South Africa.
Uruguay - World Ranking #19 - The 2 time World Cup winner is one of the more difficult nations to play, why? First they are very physical, not afraid of physical contact, hard defending and overall muscular play. Second they have some very dangerous players in the form of Forlan and Rodriguez. It will be interesting to see how Rodriguez plays since he played for PSG and was touted as the next superstar, unfortunately PSG sold him before he could realize his potential. They played a solid campaign...almost taking out Argentina in the final game which would have seen them through directly rather than following the France route of having to go via play offs. There is also a World Cup history between France and Uruguay, most recently in the terrible 2002 showing where Uruguay clearly threw the French off their game and forced poor decisions by Les Bleus.
France - World Ranking #7 - Ah Les Bleus...dodged a bullet for sure. They got the worst #1 seed available, unlike their other high ranking nation that was dropped into Pot 4, Portugal, who drew Ivory Coast and Brazil! Ouch. France have a very winnable group to say the least. Now will Domenech under-manage his squad into a 3rd place finish? Very possible!
So what does this mean? One caveat, any prediction I make today I reserve the right to change 79 times before June 11 2010...so what will happen? Ok this is the most obvious and overstated terms - all depends on the first game. But facing Uruguay first is difficult, I think they will be the most difficult team for Les Bleus. With Forlan, Suarez and Rodriguez they have the fire power to counter France and find a way to win 1-0. I think that being the opening match both nations will play the game very cautiously - France 1 Uruguay 1. Other match - Mexico defeats South Africa 1-0.
This will make game #2...the most important game of the round!! France have always played El Tri very well, defeating them in a pre World Cup 2006 match in Paris, easily defeating them and doing the same in a prior Confed Cup match in 2001. France will know Dos Santos and Vela well since one plays with the majority of the French defensive back at Arsenal and the other one has played in England. I think that El Tri will again struggle against a European nation - France 2 Mexico 0. Uruguay 1-1 against South Africa.
France will head into the final match against the hosts, I have a feeling South Africa will already be on knock out of the tournament so will be only motivated to save some honor. France will need a result to go through. Remember the last time these nations faced off in the World Cup...granted that match was in Mareilles! France find a way to overcome the national side - France 3 South Africa 1. Uruguay and Mexico draw 0-0.
France finish first with 7 pts Mexico 4 pts Uruguay 3pts South Africa 1 pt
Again I reserve the right to change my predictions...I could easily see France lose the opener to Uruguay, struggle against El Tri and hope for a win and some help when they face South Africa. Let the speculation begin!!!
Interesting article about players that might play for the US National team who have strong ties to Mexico and El Tri. Following up to the post I had a few days ago about which nation could you qualify for, but this type of national team switching is very intriguing based on the heated rivalry between the two nations. Most of the players came from South America or Africa and were playing nations in different continents than where they currently reside in. When it comes to the US and Mexico, not only are they neighboring nations and heated rivals but are, obviously, in the same qualification region. Could make for very interesting situations.
Ouch, 5-0 .... what else can you say? Mexico finally beat the US on American soil, and got some silverware to boot! So the game was a tale of two halves, the first one seeing two cautious teams probing ending goalless and the second half one where the substitution of one player really swung the game completely on its ear.
Once Mexico brought in their Arsenal star, Vela, the game completely changed. The US had no way of checking Vela let alone the combination of Vela and Dos Santos, the two Mexican stars that first burst on the scene in 2005 when he won the golden boot at the U17 World Cup where Vela led Mexico to the title, beating Brazil in the finals. Both players became hot property for the European big guns - Dos Santos heading to Barcelona and Vela being signed by Wenger. Clearly the Mexican team takes on a whole new dynamic with their European stars.
Vela demonstrated, what I hope he can replicate this season for the Gunners, an uncanny ability to take on defenders, displayed clinical passing, and chipped in with goals. The first 4 goals all had Vela's finger prints on - the second goal Vela completely exploited the left side of the pitch driving the ball into the box completely putting the US defense of their heels. Vela's goal was a nice give and go where he deftly flicked the ball over the US keeper. The fourth goal was a surgical diaganol pass allowing Castro to deftly beating the keeper. Whether it was threading a lethal pass, taking on defenders, or actually scoring the goal, the Arsenal man gave the US fits and the US clearly had no answers for him. The combination with Dos Santos was clearly one that the US could not match. So what to make of this match?
The US sent, as I had stated in a previous entry, their freshman team, this was not even the JV team...however a 5-0 drubbing at the international level is still an embarrassment. This was still an international final and against your heated rival from across the boarder, you would put up a greater fight that what was displayed in the second half. This tees up the upcoming World Cup qualifier in Mexico City where the scene will be very different. Both teams will bring in their Varsity teams...both teams will be looking for the full 3 points.
Mexico will expect to win. Playing at Azteca is not an enviable task for any team, least of all the despised USA who will be facing the 100,000 crazy fans in the stadium. In addition, Mexico will need to win. A victory will bring them to 9 points, 1 point behind second place USA, and will thrust Mexico back into the chase for South Africa. A Mexican draw or loss, would be devastating for their chances to get to South Africa. On the other hand, the US need to look for a result in Mexico. Not only would this make the 5-0 drubbing easier to digest, but after a very strange summer for US soccer - terrible start at the Confed Cup, followed by a rush after beating Spain, then disappointment after outplaying Brazil for 45 minutes, then a nice push to the Gold Cup finals only to end with 5 goals conceded....all the ups and downs would be palatable if the US can return home with a famous win at Azteca.
I doubt the Gold Cup loss will weigh negatively on the US, I think that they will use the 5-0 drubbing as motivation. They realize they did not bring their A Team, and the players will be highly motivated to win back the honor for the red white and blue. While Mexico will use the victory to propel them into the match against the US. They have finally secured a victory on US soil against the Americans. Mentally they must feel that world is starting to right itself, and being able to play at the Mexico City cauldron of the Azteca will only embolden the Mexicans even more to seek back to back victories against the US.
This should make for a great match...and one that counts. Looking forward to the August date!
