France draw the host...and dodge a bullet

Phew....what else can you say...Les Bleus somehow dodge a bullet, ok they dodged 7 bullets...and get into the South Africa group. Were the South Africans not hosting this tournament, you would think France were the #1 seed of this group. First if you have been living under a rock, do not have access to any web site other than the Frog (that would be good for my views!) or have not had a chance to see here is the group for Les Bleus, which is Group A -

Group A

Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
South Africa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mexico	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Uruguay	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
France	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

What is interesting is you have nations from 4 different confederations - Africa, Europe, North America and South America - so France will not have to face another UEFA side. Plus there are 3 World Cup titles in this group! I will go into the entire draw in another post but this one will focus on Les Bleus and Group A.

Here is the schedule...just as important as who you draw is when you play them:

Group A

Match	Date	Venue			Results
1	11 June	Johannesburg		South Africa	-	Mexico
2	11 June	Cape Town		Uruguay	-	France
17	16 June	Tshwane/Pretoria		South Africa	-	Uruguay
18	17 June	Polokwane		France	-	Mexico
33	22 June	Rustenburg		Mexico	-	Uruguay
34	22 June	Mangaung/Bloemfontein		France	-	South Africa

Let us look at each side:

South Africa - World Ranking #86 - Arguably the weakest host nation of any World Cup (even Switzerland in 1954 were a strong side), they were not even able to qualify for their own continental tournament. Ok they might be the weakest nation in the tournament - based on the FIFA World Rankings (New Zealand is 77th and North Korea are 84th, even Haiti is ahead of South Africa) They do have some solid players such as Pienaar who plays for Everton in the Premier League. However they might no have their star striker Benni McCarthy who remains at odds with his national side. Of course they will have an experienced manager in Parriera who led his native Brazil to the title in 1994, however he did quit over grumblings that he was at odds with the federation, not sure those issues have gone away. South Africa will clearly have a nation behind them, and we know what happened last time they hosted a World Cup...they won it all. Okay that was rugby where the Boks are not strangers to success...but having the home field advantage should be good for something.



They did play well in the Confed Cup they hosted last summer, playing Brazil and Spain tough in the knock out stages, so they do have something to build on. A host nation is always dangerous to face. Especially one that no one expects much from.

Mexico - World Ranking #15 - El Tri qualified for the World Cup but went through some rough patches, however as I have always stated the US and Mexico should ALWAYS qualify from the CONCACAF. With players such as Vela, Dos Santos, Blanco you should be the class of your federation. They did win the Gold cup completely destroying their hated rivals in the process. Vela and Dos Santos were unstoppable in the match, granted the US sent their "C" team to the finals, but the offensive show from the Mexicans was a reminder of the potential that is within that squad -



However they have been hot and cold on the biggest stage - also they will be playing in South Africa during the winter, we all know that El Tri does not like playing in the cold. El Tri have the talent to go far...or crash out in the group stages. There will be some increased pressure as the youth side that won the World Title a few years ago are now the generation that the nation will look to carry the squad. I think that the management merry go round has been settled with Aguirre in his second stint with his national side. It will be interesting to see which team decides to show up in South Africa.

Uruguay - World Ranking #19 - The 2 time World Cup winner is one of the more difficult nations to play, why? First they are very physical, not afraid of physical contact, hard defending and overall muscular play. Second they have some very dangerous players in the form of Forlan and Rodriguez. It will be interesting to see how Rodriguez plays since he played for PSG and was touted as the next superstar, unfortunately PSG sold him before he could realize his potential. They played a solid campaign...almost taking out Argentina in the final game which would have seen them through directly rather than following the France route of having to go via play offs. There is also a World Cup history between France and Uruguay, most recently in the terrible 2002 showing where Uruguay clearly threw the French off their game and forced poor decisions by Les Bleus.





France - World Ranking #7 - Ah Les Bleus...dodged a bullet for sure. They got the worst #1 seed available, unlike their other high ranking nation that was dropped into Pot 4, Portugal, who drew Ivory Coast and Brazil! Ouch. France have a very winnable group to say the least. Now will Domenech under-manage his squad into a 3rd place finish? Very possible!

So what does this mean? One caveat, any prediction I make today I reserve the right to change 79 times before June 11 2010...so what will happen? Ok this is the most obvious and overstated terms - all depends on the first game. But facing Uruguay first is difficult, I think they will be the most difficult team for Les Bleus. With Forlan, Suarez and Rodriguez they have the fire power to counter France and find a way to win 1-0. I think that being the opening match both nations will play the game very cautiously - France 1 Uruguay 1. Other match - Mexico defeats South Africa 1-0.

This will make game #2...the most important game of the round!! France have always played El Tri very well, defeating them in a pre World Cup 2006 match in Paris, easily defeating them and doing the same in a prior Confed Cup match in 2001. France will know Dos Santos and Vela well since one plays with the majority of the French defensive back at Arsenal and the other one has played in England. I think that El Tri will again struggle against a European nation - France 2 Mexico 0. Uruguay 1-1 against South Africa.

France will head into the final match against the hosts, I have a feeling South Africa will already be on knock out of the tournament so will be only motivated to save some honor. France will need a result to go through. Remember the last time these nations faced off in the World Cup...granted that match was in Mareilles! France find a way to overcome the national side - France 3 South Africa 1. Uruguay and Mexico draw 0-0.

France finish first with 7 pts
Mexico 4 pts
Uruguay 3pts
South Africa 1 pt

Again I reserve the right to change my predictions...I could easily see France lose the opener to Uruguay, struggle against El Tri and hope for a win and some help when they face South Africa. Let the speculation begin!!!