Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Champions league finals preview

I just realized the Champions League finals are tomorrow. I remember last year I was in Las Vegas during the Chelsea v Manchester United match up where thanks to John Terry, I lost $100....but let us get past that. I do think that tomorrow's match up is of the two best teams in Europe: FC Barcelona and Manchester United.

Both teams have won their domestic titles and have two of the top players in the world. Since both teams clinched their titles with a few weeks to spare they have been able to rest their squads. So who will win? Let's have a look at some plot lines:

Manchester United:

  • Not having Fletcher available could prove more detrimental than would otherwise be thought. Fletcher gives SAF some flexibility in the midfield and gives him a "watercarrying" type midfielder. I could have seen SAF telling Fletcher "give me 60 minutes at 110% and then we will sub you out depending on the game situation." Now Fletcher is not the absolute key to the Manchester United side but he would have given SAF the flexibility he enjoys when game planning against an opponent.
  • How well will Ferdinand play? The England central defender will be facing a stern test in his first game action in the past 3 weeks. While his partnership with Vidic has been solid for the Red Devils for a few seasons, they are also prone at times to be beaten by quick attacking players....like the ones Barca have. The two defenders are great in the air and with positioning, but how will the lay off effect the two?
  • Will this be the last game in Red for Ronaldo? Rumors will start up again of the Portuguese heading to the warmer climates of Iberia next season, so could this be his last match under the Manchester United colors? Regardless he might look to make a statement in what could be his swan song.
  • Could this be Ferguson's swan song??? Ok I know the Scot has claimed he can manage for a long long long time...but if he wins this title, what is there left for him to prove? Granted not sure what he would do in retirement, but you never know.
  • The Tevez - Rooney - Ronaldo trio will want to show that they are just as potent as their opponents from Spain. Rooney has been superb this season, I think he has really found himself being put on a wing where he is asked to come back and defend, counter attack, and score goals. One commentator on Fox Sports made a great comment - that this new position has forced Rooney to run run run and therefore kept him focused and out of trouble. Tevez is most likely playing for a new contract so he will be highly motivated to show well on the big stage. And Ronaldo has been discussed, but he will/should want to demonstrate his is the best in world since the other player with that title will be wearing #10 for Barca.
  • The two ManU wing defenders - O'Shea and Evra will have their hands full with the Barca offense. I do not fear for Evra but how will O'Shea handle the offensive pressure? And will he be allowed to push up? O'Shea has, some how, been able to chip in a goal or two when least expected, will this happen again this year? Evra should be up to the task of handling his side of the pitch, but without a Fletcher in the midfield, will there be anyone to "break up" the offensive push via the midfield? This might also inhibit his ability to push up the pitch.
FC Barcelona -
  • Alves and Abidal are suspended....um....not sure how to get over that hurdle. This will hurt more defensively, not having Abidal. As Sam Stern mentioned in one of my blog posts, Abidal has been having a great season in Spain. With such an offensive minded team, Abidal has needed to do much more defensive covering. Alves, while not a traditional lateral defender...or even a defender, would have given Manchester United fits on the wing. What options do the Catalan giants have? They will have a reshuffled back 4 and this will have a trickle down effect on the rest of the squad.
  • Toure will be moved to central defense...this is not a good thing for Barca. First it takes out one of their strongest elements, Toure as midfield destroyer, out of the picture. Second it weakens the central defense. Toure will not be permitted to be as aggressive since he will be the last line of defense rather than the protector of the back 4. Something to be watched. The loss of Abidal and Alves also means Kieta has to slot back to defense, again weakening the defensive midfield.
  • How will Henry come back from injury? Ironically it was Barca that kept Titi from winning what is the one piece of silverware missing from his trophy case. He will be motivated to rectify that, especially since he will be facing an old nemesis...ManU. However, much will depend on how well he has recovered from his injury.
  • Will Iniesta be 100%? Iniesta and Xavi are the keys to the midfield. It is their creative passing that makes the trio of Eto'o, Messi and Henry so dangerous. If the tandem is fit, look out...otherwise it might be a long day for the Catalans.
  • Valdes, will the Spanish keeper be up for the challenge? With his piecemeal defense in front of him, I am sure he will be called upon to make a huge save in the game...which keeper will show up?
So what does this all mean? I think that offensively both teams are close equals, however defensively with all the suspensions Barca has to deal with I cannot see them being able to play their game. With Yaya back in the back line, the midfield will be more open for Manchester United. I can see a mistake from Toure, or Puyol (playing back right) giving ManU an early lead. They will then salt that away with a late goal...ugh

Manchester United 2 - FC Barcelona 0
Ronaldo, Rooney

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