Friday, April 25, 2008

First round of semis are done.....and almost everything is left to do

So both the Champions League and UEFA Cup have had their first round of semi final games, the results...rather bland -

Champions League:
Liverpool 1 - Chelsea 1
Barca 0 - Manchester United 0

UEFA Cup:
Rangers 0 - Fiorentina 0
Bayern Munich 1 - Zenit 1

4 whole goals in 4 matches...two of which were dreadful own goals. While these games were by no means offensive showcases, although Liverpool could have scored 1 or 2 more goals had Cech not made some sensational saves. A couple of thoughts on the return legs for all the matches, we will start with the UEFA Cup first:

Zenit vs Bayern - The Russian side has shown in this tournament that it does not fear having to do all the work on the return leg, see what they did to Marseilles after going down 3-1 away to OM. However the Bayern team will be heading to Russia with the confidence that they can score goals. The game in Germany was offensively dominated by the Bavarian giants. Ribery was once again a spark plug and was all over the pitch. Not sure how the St Petersburgh club will find a way to slow him down. Even with Zenit with a crucial away goal, I think they will be under a lot of pressure from Bayern. With players such as Arshavin missing due to cards, Zenit will be hard pressed to find the solution to the Bayern system. The Germans have too much for Zenit to handle: Bayern 3-Zenit 1

Fiorentina v Rangers- This was an interesting match, with Rangers depleted by injury and suspension fighting off the inform UEFA cup club of Fiorentina. With a 0-0 draw, all Ranger need to do is win or draw and they will find themselves into the finals. However I think that heading back to Florence the Viola will overcome their Scottish opponents. The man to watch for Fiorentina will bu Mutu. I think the Romanian is going to be huge in the return leg (he is a player to watch this summer as well in the Euros). His pace and offensive talents will be too much to handle for the full 90 by Rangers. I also think the Viola defense and Frey in particular are playing at a high level, and this will be difficult for Rangers to unlock: Fiorentina 2 - Rangers 0

Chelsea v Liverpool - This was an interesting battle between two evenly matched teams on paper, but clearly mismatched in the management ranks. Liverpool were unlucky to have given up an own goal so late and not to have scored 1 or 2 more goals themselves. But the reality is they are heading to London needing to score since Chelsea have the away goal in hand. The other advantage that Liverpool have, is that Chelsea is playing a huge game this weekend against Manchester United that will determine the Premiership. Might this be a distraction for the Blues? I think this all comes down to Grant vs Benitez, I realize this is simplistic but the talent on the field is very evenly drawn. Liverpool will most likely come out with a similar line up, relying in Torres up front and Gerrard right behind him. Benitez will most likely look for his midfield to push further up the pitch look to pressure the Chelsea back line and allow Gerrard to free lance. This will put tremendous pressure on Mascherano to hold the midfield and destroy any Chelsea attacks before they reach the Red's back line. On the flip side I wonder if Grant will not look to kill the game by once again playing a 5 player midfield and allow Drogba to try and crack Liverpool on his own. It will be interesting to see who he put out this weekend, will he rest Makelele? Sit Drogba in favor of Anelka? I think Grant will feel comfortable sitting on the lead, and after, what might be, a tough tie against Manchester United this weekend, will look to sit back and absorb the Liverpool attack. Ballack and Lampard will be tasked to try and spring Drogba on the counter or test Reina from distance. Maybe play a combination of Makelele, Essein and Mikel in midfield in front of the back 4 to clog up the middle, allow Ballack and Lampard to run the offense. Maybe slot Joe Cole as the third offensive minded player, but in a deep midfield role, with three in the midfield supporting the lone striker, or even play Essein in that role linking up the defense and offense. The question becomes can Liverpool find the offensive fire power to break the midfield strangle hold? The wild card for Liverpool will be which striker, not named Torres, will make their presence felt. Will Kuyt keep up his European form? Or will Couch be a late substitute that changes the dynamics? In the end I think that Chelsea will find a way to clog the middle, stifle Liverpool and with the fear of Drogba or a late Anelka substitution force Liverpool to hold back on wholehearted attack: good ole boring 0-0 draw.

Manchester United v Barcelona: Listening to World Soccer Daily today you would think that Manchester United are playing the over 40 soccer team from Barca....the pundits stating a 2-0 or 3-0 victory for the Red Devils. I am not sure about this. Watching the game at Camp Nou I was impressed with Barca and in particular Messi. The young Argentine regularly carved up the Manchester United defense. His pace and guile were things that clearly had Manchester United back on their heels. Not sure if in a week Manchester United will figure out how to handle him. Now maybe SAF puts Hargraeves in the middle of the park and orders him to track the Argentine high up the pitch with support from the back 4, in particular Evra and Brown on the wings (assuming Vidic is healthy and can slot in the middle with Ferdinand). With the two central defenders handling Eto'o or Henry. However, I think the real danger will be in how early does Bojan find his way into the game? I might even start Henry up front, let him roam in from the left with Messi and Bojan wide, Xavi and Deco feeding and Yaya once again playing midfield destroyer, something he did very well at the Camp Nou. On the other side I think SAF will rue the fact Ronaldo missed that PK...who wouldn't....the question becomes will Rooney be 100% after picking up a knock in the Chelsea game? Not that Man U is short of attacking options, but Rooney will be key. With Rooney I would expect to see a similar line up with Rooney and Tevez up front, Ronaldo on one wing and most likely Giggs or Nani on the other. I think Hargraeves, assuming Vidic is back, will slot back to the middle and will be responsible as a first line of defense against Messi. Lots of fire power on both sides as well as injury and suspension issues. I do not believe playing at Old Trafford will intimidate Barca, lets face it, playing at Real Madrid every year is not walk in the park. I think that pressure of being caught late in the Prem will take its toll on Manchester United, and I think that Messi will prove too much: Barca 2- ManU 1

So based on my track record we will have a
Rangers vs Zenit UEFA cup final
Liverpool vs Manchester United Champions League finals!

Regardless should be some exciting ties.

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