Prem about to kick off

This weekend is the official start of the Barclay's Premiership. We will be witness to an exciting title race, gritty matches, spectacular goals, and some of the world's greatest players only to see one of the following teams hoist the trophy - Chelsea or Manchester United - at the end of the season. When you step back it is amazing how popular the Prem is yet how little turn over you have at the top of the table every season. Since the re-organization of the domestic league into the "Prem", Manchester United have dominated, winning 9 titles, Arsenal are second with 3 titles, Chelsea have won 2 and Blackburn 1.....Blackburn??? (What happened to them??) And in recent history the teams in contention have been from the "big 4" - Arsenal,Man U, Chelsea and Liverpool (and I would argue that Liverpool should not been included since they have not won a domestic title in 17 years!!!). And Chelsea only came into that elite company when Abramovich showered the club with his billions of fleeced rubles.

Then again this "malaise" is rampant across all football -Lyon has won the French league 6 straight years, who outside of AC/Juventus have won the Italian league (granted maybe because they cheat the best), how about Spain - Barca or Real Madrid (at least Valencia have been able to sneak in recently) and in Germany Bayern Munich has won 7 out of the last 10 titles.....not much parody there. Okay enough of my rant, I will be the first one to watch the Derby v Portsmouth match or hold out hope when Bolton is sitting in third place that they might challenge for the title....all the while knowing that either Chelsea or Manchester United will win the trophy. Since I have given away who I think will win, here are my predictions for Prem -

1. Manchester United - Ugh, how boring....but how can you argue with the Red Devils? They absolutely reloaded this off season and jettisoned some dead weight (Steve Smith anyone?). They remain solid on the back line, even if Heinze blazes his way out of town. With Vidic and Rio "I forget drug tests" Ferdinand anchoring the middle and Van Der Saar between the sticks they will have a stingy defense. The addition of Hargraeves, while I think was OVER valued, will help protect that back line. Evra will once again use his pace and be a two way threat. Midfield is stacked, Ronaldo is in his prime, scary. Giggs and Scholes are not what they used to be, but have the experience necessary. Carrick is good cover, Nani will be interesting to watch on the wings, and Park will play a valuable role as a spot starter and substitute. Up front there are a wealth of options, with Rooney and Tevez as #1 pairing with Solskjaer and Saha as replacements and Anderson can slot in at striker or attacking midfield...scary. There are a lot of question marks on how things will gel, but there is too much talent for this team not to repeat as champs.
2. Arsenal - Okay I am being a homer...or maybe Sam's irrational exuberance has rubbed off on me. However here is my rational for Arsenal finishing second: last year Arsenal played very well against the other "big 4" the reason they struggled was too many dropped points early in the season, losing to Man City and West Ham as examples. Initially they also showed too much difficulty protecting their home turf. Additionally there was also too much turmoil early season - Henry playing not playing, new digs at Emirates, Gallas hurt, etc. These distractions, hopefully, will not be an issue this go around. I do think they will need to find a reliable scorer up front, I know everyone says that Van Persie will step in and fill those shoes, and I have no doubt of the Dutchman's talent, but I do not see him as a 20 goal a season sniper. Too me he remains a 12 - 15 goals player, reeking havoc from the wings, but not a true top of formation striker. If the rest of the merry band - Rosicky, Hleb, Adebayour, Bendtner, Eduardo and Walcott can chip in the goal scoring void should be addressed. Of course I think that having a "big name" striker - a la Eto'o or Anelka - would truly make Arsenal into title contenders. However the rest of the squad has become stronger. The additional of Sagna will bolster the back four, adding the talented Frenchman to the already present Toure, Gallas, Clichy, and Eboue should make the back line one of the North Londoners strengths. Traore, the French U-19 player, is knocking at the door to find a way into the big teams' rotation. The midfield will also remain a strength, especially in the defensive/holding role. No reason to believe that Gilberto will not have another outstanding year and with Denilson showing some real promise end of last season will prove some strong cover and presence in front of the back 4. Cesc will continue to develop and will continue to add some creativeness to the midfield. Rosicky and Hleb will continue to give workman like efforts at the midfield, with Flamini being the jack of all trade - being able to slot in midfield or in a pinch at fullback. Diaby should also provide some solid play at midfield being finally healthy. I give Arsenal the #2 slot assuming that Wenger has a few more cards up his sleeve - meaning another striker and potentially more cover in the midfield. Also the awarding of the captain's armband to Gallas will give some the defender the vote of confidence he was crying for over the summer, but more importantly Gallas will prove to be a vocal and solid leader.
   
3. Chelsea - #2 last year, now #3....will we finally see Mourinho's head explode? Chelsea did add some key components - Malouda, Ben Haim, Sidwell and Pizarro - to an already loaded roster. However I am not sure that last years problems are solved. How will Sheva do in his second year? Will Ballack find his role...or end up in Madrid? But Chelsea have the horses. Joe Cole being healthy will be a huge plus for the Blues. Assuming Robben leaves to Real Madrid, I think that Malouda will be a very viable replacement. If SWP can approach his levels of Manchester City he will be a valuable asset. But the success still hinges on Drogba, Lampard, Essein, and Terry. I think Drogba will be a monster again, but he will miss time due to the African Nations Cup as well Essien. Terry is already hurt, but assuming Alex plays there should not be too much drop off. The reason I think Chelsea will suffer is the African Nations Cup, they stand to lose the most players - Drogba&Kalou (Ivory Coast), Essein (Ghana), and Mikel (Nigeria), this will fall in the middle of the season and any points dropped will be crucial. Additionally the lose of Terry for the early season may prove too difficult for the title aspirations, early points dropped are just as deadly to silverware acquisition as are points end of season. Chelsea still have the horses, but I think the drunken spending of the past few years will catch up with the harmony of the club.
4. Tottenham - Okay, I realize Liverpool was suppose to be in this slot. But I am not a Benetiz fan, I think he is a great manager for short "series" such as the Champions League, but has not proven he can manage a long season (more below). I do think that Tottenham is in position to break into the top 4. First they kept the player vital to any success - Berbatov. Second, Martin Jol added some strength at defense in Kaboul and wonder kid Bale as well as up front in Bent. Finally, health, players like Ledley King should be back at full strength and partnered with Dawson with Kaboul as cover will solidify the center back role. Lennon will need to be more consistent to ensure Tottenham success. Keane, Defoe, Berbatov and Bent should provide the London club the necessary striker rotation needed to succeed in the Prem. 2 seasons ago, Tottenham made a run at the final Champions League slot, last year was a year of unmet expectations, I think that this season Tottenham gets themselves back into the picture. Additionally, Martin Jol is on the hot seat and will find a way to get the lads to perform.
   
5. Liverpool - He has added some big horses - Torres and Babel being the biggest. The main issue is that Liverpool has not demonstrated the internal fortitude to survive the brutal Premiership season. Whenever they have a chance to make a mark, they fall flat on their faces. I think that Benetiz is a master for match up footie. He has shown an uncanny ability to plan for a short match ups, scheming to stop another teams strengths, but he has not shown an ability to manage for the long season - establishing a rotation and motivating his team for the long haul. I am also not convinced that Torres will be a success in England. He has been good, but never as good as the publicity. I am still not convinced Crouch is a viable #1 striker and Kuyt never strikes fear into my heart. As long as Benetiz fumbles around with Gerrard, playing him on the wing etc, he will not live up to potential. Sissoko and Mascherano will be strengths for Liverpool but the back 4 are getting old (does Riise do anything other than the occasional left footed bomb?). Winning the Champions League a few season ago saved Benetiz's job. But I have a feeling that Mr Texas Ranger will be looking for a new manager after this season.
6. Newcastle - I think that Big Sam will finally straighten out this underachieving bunch. Viduka will be a great addition, and one man's trash is another's treasure - Smith (then again if the Viduka - Smith combo can find any semblance of success from their Leeds United days it will be a strong duo) A full season of Owen would not hurt either.
   
7. Bolton - They will bite, scratch, cheap shot and thug their way to a top 10 finish. As long as Anelka stays they should be in the top ten.
   
8. Everton - I think the Toffies will surprise some out there, Moyes is a superior manager and should get Cahill (if he comes back from injury in time), Johnson and the rest of the boys to perform over their heads.
9. Aston Villa - Another mid level team that has a top level manager in Martin O'Neill. The season success will depend if Carew can score double digit goals or will be looking for employment in the MLS
   
10. Portsmouth - the Arsenal retirement home team will remain in the top 10. Redknapp is also a solid manager and should guide this team to mid table.
11. Sunderland - Their return to the top flight is marked by the manager that is leading the club, Roy Keane. It will be interesting how Keane does in the Prem, as a player he had many a falling out with managers...wonder how he will act now that he is the manager. The recent signing of Craig Gordon will be huge, he is the prime reason why Scotland is in the running for a qualifying spot in the Euro 2008.
12. Blackburn - Hey didn't they win the Premiership? As long as they have Friedel, even if he is 49 years old they should be a middle of the table club. The wild card might be if Santa Cruz can live up to his potential, Blackburn could find themselves in the top 10.
13. West Ham - Survived las season by the skin of their teeth, were it not for a certain Tevez they would be in the CocaCola championship. They have added some new players, but most are second tier or past their prime players - Bellamy and Parker will have a lot to prove, Ljungberg will try to squeeze something out of his dwindling skills, Faubert could have been interesting....had he not suffered a season long injury.
14. Middlesbrough - This team will be as always...cannon fodder. A team that had never won anything...oh wait they won a Carling Cup.....a team that lives up to its name "middle" like trying to be average. Securing Woodgate will help, as does ensuring Schwarer will stay between the pipes. Losing Viduka will be very painful for Boro. Middlesbrough will struggle to stay away from relegation, but once again find a way to survive.
15. Fulham - Another club that every year seems to flirt with relegation. Interesting how they are owned with a ridiculously wealthy man - Mohammed Fayed. Yet they never spend money, play on grounds fit for a Nationwide side, and do not look like a serious Prem club. They will struggle once again, the success for Fulham will revolve around the success of the Americans - can McBride continue to be a good striker contributing key goals and can Clint "Deuce" Dempsey.
16. Manchester City - Yuck, this team is putrid. The Citizens will remain a small team in the shadow of their cross town behemoth Man United. The main reason I am picking this team so low is due to one man - Sven....he admitted that he signed a number of players due to their video tape evidence.....hmm ever thought of either a)sending scouts b)getting on a plane to watch for yourself? Sven used this same logic to select Walcott for the English World Cup squad. Rather than chasing around the media skirts, Eriksson should consider doing some managing. If he had not won the Italian league with Lazio he would be plying his "trade" at some back water team in Sweden.
17. Reading - This team played above themselves last season, losing Sidwell to Chelsea will hurt. They will need some minor miracles to come close to matching their success from last year, I see relegation worries all season for Reading.
    
18. Birmingham City - Any team relying on Forssell to carry the scoring is in trouble. I remember a game when the Finn was sitting on a brace and when a penalty shot was award, ran up to the spot and waved away Birmingham City's designated PK taker so that he could score his hat trick....hmmm selfish anyone?
19. Wigan - After Chimbonda left a season ago I could not recognize any of the players. The same goes for this season. It was nice to see you Wigan.
20. Derby County - The usual story, team finds a way to win a playoff in League Championship to get to the Prem, finds itself in the Prem and gets outclassed, finds its way back to the League Championship. At least their crest has a mutton on it....mmmmm mutton.

I am looking forward to the start of the season, I will be glued to Fox Soccer (although not sure why Derby is going to be showcased the first two weeks on Fox Soccer.....maybe I should get DirecTV so I can sign up for Setanta as well). I will be looking forward to the Sunderland v Man United game, Keane might cloths line SAF on the side lines, or first the first whine from Mourinho.....let the games begin!