Ligue 1 starting up again! Guess who I think will win the title???

It never ceases to amaze me how little time professional footballers seem to get off between seasons. No wonder players are even more strained summers when there is a global tournament - which was the case this season with the Copa America. This should not impact too much the teams in Ligue 1, now the African Cup of Nations...that will be a different story.

The biggest news during this off season was the rise of Manchester City by the Seine - aka PSG. The team from the capital started splashing out tidy sums of money to acquire talent after being taken over by well funded Qatar owners. It will be interesting to see if, as the French say, "si la mayonnaise prend." Marseilles also made some noise, namely in not losing DD - Deschamps, their manager. Lille are the defending Cup and Championship winners and the exodus from the northern French team was less severe than feared. So who will finish in the top 5 this year? Read on ...

• FC Sochaux: The surprise team from last campaign will build upon their 5th place finish and...maintain that fifth place finish! Much of their continued success will be due to continuity. Primarily in the fact they have held on their core, especially the new French darling Marvin Martin, even though the transfer winds were strong. The dynamo play maker made some noises that he would like to join PSG or others, but nothing came of it...yet. The other major factor why I see Sochaux defending their Europa League spot is that none of the other contenders really improved themselves enough to get into the top 5. I would, however, keep an eye on TFC, they did add some fire power and talent but I do not think enough to challenge Sochaux for Europa League play. Now if Martin does leave before the close of the transfer window, Sochaux will drop back to the middle of the pack. Look for the likes of TFC or Rennes to slot up.
• Olympique Lyonnais: It was not that long ago that the club from France's gastronomic capital was seen as Ligue 1's best chance at European glory, and why not? With the likes of Essein, Malouda, Abidal, Benzema and the likes having worn the OL kit. Unfortunately it is never easy at the top of the pyramid. Especially when you miss on some key signings - Gomis, Gourcuff to name two. I do see Lyon coming back very soon based on the youth that has come up through their system and who is poised to make a greater impact on the senior side: Kolodziejczak, Gonalons, Lacazette, Tafer and Pjanic. They might be one more season from truly gelling as a unit. The transition in the Rhone region continues but they are not far from contending again. Unfortunately, veterans such as Gourcuff, who

  

  Better days for the play maker

  was brought in as key pieces to build around have failed to impress. Is the French play maker overrated? I know I have had many debates with the Gooner about this very topic, and after the past season I am starting to believe that the Gooner might be right. Gourcuff had a break out season at Bordeaux, but since then it appears that the burden of being anointed the next great French #10 is too much for his slender shoulders. With a new manager - Remi Garde (who by the way is rumored to be in line to replace Wenger at Arsenal whenever the Professor decides to move on) - who has been with Lyon since 2003, Gourcuff will need to establish himself and his game under a new system. Lyon's season will depend greatly upon his ability to regain some of the form that teased us while at Bordeaux.
• LOSC: The defending French Cup and Championship side will not defend either title, too much attrition. Cabaye, Gervinho, Rami, Frau, Emerson....and the list goes on, but it did stop at the prize possession - Hazard. LOSC did bring in some replacements: Rozenhal, Pedretti and Payet to name a few. Not that the comparison is fair, but Rozenhal to replace Rami, Pedretti to replace Cabaye and Payet to replace Gervinho. Not like replacements, but what LOSC did that was intelligent was bring in players from Ligue 1 or who have played in Ligue 1. This should ensure a smooth transition for the club.  However with Champions League football and defense of two titles in addition to the year long rumors that will invariable swirl around Belgian winger Hazard, I think this will prove too much for the "little engine that could" of French football. LOSC have too much talent left over and were able to hold on to their best player, Hazard; however it will be too much to ask for them to mount another title winning campaign.
• Paris St Germain: Surprise! I bet some of you thought I would pick them to win the title this season...why not I have done so consistently in the past when they had a far less exciting transfer season as this year! With the additions of Douchez, Gameiro, Matuidi, Menez, Sirigu, Bisevac Sissoko and the cherry on top - Pastore, add to this more rumors of players coming to Paris such as Cole and Berbatov - and you have a very exciting off season for the Parisians. I have argued with Gooner that, unlike Manchester City, these moves all making footballing sense and are not just the exploits of a front office drunk with petro-dollars. Granted if they also sign Berbatov and Cole we might start creeping into MCFC territory, but I digress. PSG had a good run last season, but just did not have enough to stay in contention. The main reason? Goalkeeping - check with Douchez and Sirigu that should not be a problem. Midfield depth - check with Pastore, Matuidi, Menez and Sissoko replacing the older Makelele and Giulys of the team.
  
  
  
  Scoring - check with the addition of Gameiro and Menez, if Hourau can ever find his goal scoring touch again then look out. If you add a Berbatov to that mix then goals should not be an issue. The other positive for PSG - not losing Sakho to the likes of Arsenal or Barcelona. Having him pair with Bisevac, in front of a solid keeper will go a long way to stabilize the back line for PSG. So why not in first place? I am not convinced that Kombouare is the right man for the role. Tactically he has not shown me anything and when it comes to personnel I am not convinced either - he was opposed to signing Nene last season, without him PSG would have been stuck mid table. I also think PSG need a season under their belt before we can see PSG live up to their potential.



Someone looks happy

• Olympique de Marseille: Bleehhh...that was painful to type....might need to wash my hands. Hard for me to accept, but OM will win the league title this season. They stuck around all season, but could never make a serious charge to threaten Lille; however, look for this to change this season. With the main question of whether or not DD would stay, having been resolved, Marseilles spent a relatively calm off season, instead allowing their hated rivals PSG make all the noise. They were able to add Bordeaux captain Diarra, a player long sought after by Deschamps to add muscle to his midfield. The situation
  with Gonzalez remains a moving target, with the latest rumors being a move to Serie A. If that move were to materialize, look for DD to target another striker, possibly Gilardino from Fiorentina as a replacement. Regardless of the Gonzalez/Gilardino dance, Marseilles have the players in place to win the title. With the likes of Remy, Gignac, Valbuena, Mandanda, Cheyrou, Diarra, Amalfitano, Fanni to name a few, OM have the necessary fire power and depth to capture the crown. Ugh that was painful for me to write.

Teams that will have to fight on their hands to avoid relegation:

ASSE: The once storied French side have yo-yo'd between Ligue 1 and 2 for the past few seasons. This year will be no different with the losses of Payet and Riviere look for Les Verts to struggle to stay in Ligue 1.
Auxerre: Another storied Ligue 1 side will find the sledding tough after a net loss in the transfer market, especially their captain Pedretti who was the engine for the small French side. The one time hot bed for youth talent, thanks to Guy Roux, has become a small club that tends to punch above its weight, but they are destined to get knocked down one of these days.
FC Lorient: Talk about a team that punches above their weight class, but with the losses of Gameiro, Morel and Amalfitano it will be too much for the club.

If the likes of ASSE and Auxerre get relegated, Ligue 2 will look like Ligue 1 in the 1980s - Nantes, Lens, Monaco, Metz, Le Havre...

This should be an exciting Ligue 1 season, if nothing else to see a ratcheting up of the OM - PSG rivalry.

Champions League - Return leg for 1/2 finals

So what can one say about the ability of the Frog to predict matches...um...usually it is the inverse of what is written in this blog! I thought that the Inter v Barca match would be be a tightly played, low scoring match while the Bayner v Lyon had the potential for 4 goals....ooops.

This week we will have the 2 return legs with Inter heading to Barcelona with a 3-1 lead and Bayern heads to Lyon with a 1-0 lead.

First the match in Lyon. OL will miss Toulalan due to a red card while Bayern will suffer the same fate with Ribery. This gives Lyon a slight advantage since Bayern will not have their dangerous left winger. Granted, when Ribery went out Robben stepped up his game and was absolutely impossible to contain, granted once Lyon went down to 10 players he had much more room to roam and his goal was completely deserved. Lyon might be in trouble with their central defenders with Boumsong and Cris coming back from injury. I would think Gonanlons will be slotted as the holding midfielder with Boumsong and Cris in central defense. Much will be expected from the young midfielder to check Robben's runs. However based on what I saw in Munich, I fear that Lyon was overwhelmed by a Bayern team that was clicking with Robben and Ribery running wild on the wings. Even without Ribery, I think that Lyon will have difficulty controlling Robben for 90 minutes. I am not sure that Lyon can keep Bayern off the score sheet, meaning that Lyon will have to score at least 3 goals. Which I fear is to much to ask of this side - prediction: Lyon 1 Bayern 1 - Bayern through 2-1 on aggragate.

The second match comes off a very surprising 3-1 Inter victory in Milan against the team many feel is destined to defend their title of Champions League. Barcelona seemed completely out of sorts during the first leg. Without Iniesta, the Spanish club's midfield revolved entirely around Xavi and his ability to break down the Italian defense. Something he did not have the facility to do as he had against Arsenal. Messi was also contained, every time he came close to the ball he had his national teammate Cambiasso right on his heels usually with another defender to trap the Argentine flea. On the other hand Inter was clinical on the counter attack taking their chances and while the build ups were no way near as pretty as Barcelona's they were very effective - 3 goals. However this tie is far from over - with the away goal in hand, Barcelona have a belief they can get at least 2 goals on Inter. The question will become - can Barcelona hold off Inter from the score sheet? I cannot imagine Inter not taking the same strategy - look to shut down Xavi and keep a shadow on Messi. Inter will then look to continue to beat Barcelona on the counter - feeding Eto'o and Milito. Could Guardiola slot Henry back on the left with Ibra and Messi as a 3 headed attack formation? Try to give the formation much more width with Henry out on the left. This match will be very entertaining. I think Barcelona will come out guns blazing and look to get an early goal. If Inter can stem this early tide they are in good shape, otherwise it might become a back and forth match. I think Barcelona go up 2-0 at half time, Inter scores via Eto'o in the 70th minute only to see Barcelona fight back in added time to get the 3-1 victory which makes the aggregate a tie. In extra time both sides play more cautiously and the game goes to penalty kicks....Barca wins 6-5 in PKs.....

Barcelona v Bayern in the finals....

Lyon v Bayern - the forgotten Champions League semi final

After a shocking 3-1 win by Inter over Barca yesterday, we have the second semi finals today in Munich between Lyon and Bayern. After having to take planes, trains and automobiles...minus the planes...Lyon finally got to Munich. On paper they are the underdog. Bayern is peeking and scored a famous win over Manchester United in the last round. With Robben and Ribery picking up the pace on the wings and Olic scoring goals in bunches, it appears that the former French champion might be in for a long day.

Not so sure. With Sissoko and Reveillere on the flanks, Lyon have the players that can hold their own versus the powerful Bayern wingers. In addition, Van Bommel is suspended taking out some steel from the middle of the Bayern side as well as Badstuber, the left back, who is suspended. That should free up space for Pjanic to pull the strings in the midfield for OL. Bayern cannot underestimate the Lyon strikers such as Lisandro. Finally the x factor for both sides are their keepers - positive for Lyon huge negative for Bayern. Hugo Lloris might just steal a game in this home and away tie.



I think that Lyon will play much like they have all Champions League - organized defensively and look to counter. They will not be afraid to allow Bayern to do what they want with the ball for 2/3 of the pitch and then lock down when it gets into the Lyon defensive third of the pitch. They have tremendous faith that Lloris can come up with the big saves when called upon. The key for Bayern will be Robben, if he can win his battle with Sissoko then Bayern could find themselves with a fruitful night, otherwise it will end a draw.

Prediction - Lyon 1 Bayern 0 - goal from Bastos late into the second half.

Bravo OL! Lyon knock out Real Madrid in Champions League

The upset of this year's Champions League - Lyon go to the Santiago Bernabeu get the draw and move on to the 1/4 finals. I did not think that Lyon would be able to repeat what they did at home to Real, I tip my hat to the Gones. As has been already written and said, it was really a game of two halves. After Ronaldo scored within the first 10 minutes, I feared that the flood gates would open that the second goal was not far behind. The second goal wasn't far behind, except Higuain inexplicably hit the post after he had beaten Lloris and had a wide open goal to shoot at. Higuain also had a chance to add a second when his shot was deftly saved by Lloris but had the Argentine squared the ball in the box to Ronaldo the Portuguese playmaker would have had a simple tap in.

 

Real would not have any better chances after squandering those two Higuain opportunities. At the restart Puel made some tactically wise moves that turned the game in the second half - bringing in Kallstrom and Gonalons for Boumsong and Makoun. He slotted Toulalan back as a central back allowing Gonalons to take over the holding role. The game completely changed with Lyon taking the initiative and Real starting to doubt themselves. It was only a matter of time but the Pjanic goal was well deserved. The goal started with a long clearance from Lloris and exemplified by a Real defense that was not aggressive enough in attacking the ball allowing it to drop to Lopez at the penalty dot who coolly dropped it for an on rushing Pjanic who made no mistake with his finishing. 

With less than a 1/4 hour left Real were defeated, they knew they would need 2 goals to go through due to the away goal rules. Clearly they were aware of their fate and nothing exemplified their frustration more than Raul's blow up at Cris late in the game. Of course Lyon could have completely iced the game away had they not missed two 1v1 situations with Casillas late on, both times inexplicably putting the ball wide or high, not even forcing the Spain #1 into a save.

So Lyon will move on to the next round, Real's dream of going for title #10 at home (the finals of the Champions League are in Madrid) have been squashed. Of course the long knives are out as many are questioning Pellegrini and whether or not he will survive at Real. First I think that the Real manager will be shown the door this summer, with the likes of Rafa and the Special One looked at to take over the reigns. Second, unfortunately I do not think it is the manager's fault. Once again Real went out and spent like drunken sailors - spending a quarter billion euros on players - and with that spend thought the 10th Champions League title was theirs for the taking.  I guess not. Unfortunately for Real fans, I am not sure the money was spent wisely. Yes they acquired 2 of the top players in the world - Kaka and Ronaldo. They bought the best French player in Ligue 1 - Benzema. But did they have a plan for how they were going to play this year? Not sure. Why pay for Benzema when you already have Higuian up front? I am not sure you need both Kaka and Ronaldo, they both play some what similar styles, granted Ronaldo is a traditional winger, but they both like to dictate the pace of the game. 

Real will challenge Barca for the League title, no doubt. But they ultimate prize - the Champions League - is no longer a possibility. For this Pellegrini will lose his job and the managerial merry go round at the Bernabeu will start again this summer. My early odds - The Special One 4:1, Rafa 9:1, Wenger 14:1, Domenech 2b:1.....

One more note from the match - slotting Toulalan along side Cris was fantastic. I really believe that Toulalan would make a good center back. He has unlimited amounts of energy always running and working...the problem is when he is in the midfield sometimes that running is done just for the sake of running - chasing shadows. However if you slot him at center back, the position forces him to be more disciplined. He can still leverage his pace and energy as well as his strong defensive understanding. The one down side is he is not the largest player in terms of height. But something to ponder for Les Blues.

Los Galaticos part II - Real keeps on spending

Ribery...Villa...Eto'o...Maradona...Pele???? The question for the past few weeks was not when but who Real Madrid would add to their new version of the Galaticos. After Kaka and Ronaldo it is the turn of Benzema to head to Spain. Slightly surprising since the young French striker kept saying he wanted to stay in France until after the world cup, but the lure of playing for one of the world's biggest clubs was too much...as were the 35m Euros for his transfer. I am happy he went there rather than the other rumored landing spot...Manchester United. Also, I also think for the player this is the better move. With the supposed exit of Van Nistelrooy, the aging of Raul...Benzema will have an opportunity to become the #1 striker fro Real. Not a bad place to be with Ronaldo on one wing and Kaka slotted behind you. Benzema had an "off year" last season but still racked up healthy goal totals - 17 total. Playing in Spain, with this cast, should only help the young striker grow. He had no challenges left in France, so the move makes sense.

Wonder if Real will buy a defender any time soon?

Champions League draw....bad news for the Frenchies

The Draw for the knock out stage of the Champions League:

Chelsea v Juventus
Villarreal v Panathinaikos
Sporting Lisbon v Bayern Munich
Atletico Madrid v Porto
Lyon v Barcelona
Real Madrid v Liverpool
Arsenal v Roma
Inter Milan v Manchester United

Ouch ouch ouch...the Frenchies are in a tough position - Lyon and Wenger. A quick look at the pairings:

• Chelsea will beat Juve but it will be very close. Intrigue that Juve's current boss used to manage the Blues. Too much midfield talent at Stamford Bridge for the old lady.
• Villareal will be upset by the Greeks! Tough leg to play in Athens.
• Bayern over the Portugese. The Bundesliga champs draw one of the easier clubs, have too much fire power in Ribery, Klose and Toni.
• The other Madrid club...Athletico, gets by Porto. Not many outside Iberia will be intrigued, but this should be a good match up.
• Ugh, tough tough tough draw for Lyon...Barca is the best club in Europe right now, with all the problems the Lyon team faces on defense I am not sure they can stop Eto'o, Henry, Messi, Bojan, et al. Barca win handily.
• Interesting match up on two very successful Champions League clubs and two managers that are masters of knock out competitions. I think that the Premiership title chase is too much for Benetiz and Real find a way to get past Liverpool, but could go either way.
• Yuck, another tough match up for the Frenchies - Wenger et al. Roma is in good form right now and the trip to Italy will be very difficult. I think much depends on what happens for Arsenal during the transfer window....if they lose more experience, aka Gallas. I think they will have a tough time of it. However I think Arsenal will find a way to draw at Roma and win at home 1-0. Arsenal through....barely.
• Ah Mourinho vs Ferguson, two of the most capable...and arrogant managers. There are so many story lines here, one of which would be is this a match up of the current and future Manchester United managers? Mourinho is almost highly motivated but facing ManU will only add to his desire to demonstrate his specialness. If anyone knows how to go to Old Trafford and win it is Jose. I see this being a mouth watering match up, but in the end the Red Devils get through.

Mind you, this is my first take so I am sure once I start thinking about this more I will change all my predictions! I am glad that ManU did not end up with Sporting or Panathinikos, but Lyon playing Barca is cruel fate for the French champs.

Anyone notice...Ligue 1 is competitive!!!

I must admit, I had Olympique Lyonnaise sized up for their 8th straight league title prior to the season starting. But after 17 matches Lyon has a slim 3 point lead over Marseilles and is only 5 points ahead of the 5th place team - PSG. Unlike prior seasons, the Ligue 1 title might play itself out until late into the season. To what do we owe this competitiveness? A few things.

• Lyon has dropped with regards to their depth and talent. It would be impossible for a team to sustain such a high level when they have regularly lost some top players. Lyon were not just losing high performing players for Ligue 1 but players that are world class - Diarra, Essein, Malouda, Coupet, and Malouda to name a few. While they have done a good job adding the top talent in the French league, they have not added the world class level they have seen leaving. In addition, Lyon is not getting younger. Players such as Juninho are starting to show their age. There remains a tremendous amount of young talent - Lloris, Benzema, Pjanic, and Mounier to name a few. But these players are young and still have a ways to go (the latter two more than the former two). However it is very difficult to do what Lyon has already achieved, the fact they remain on top of the table is nothing to sneeze at, but compared to their prior seasons it gives pause that they might be caught!
• The challengers - teams such as Marseilles, Rennes, and Bordeaux have done some interesting things to contend, namely adding some important talent. Bordeaux went out and got Gourcuff from Milan and Marseilles added, from OL, Ben Arfa. However the club that is most surprising, pleasantly for me, is PSG. They went out and got some veterans - Guily and Makelele as well as taking chances on second division players like Hourau. It has taken some time, but PSG looks like it has found itself. They have already defeated, Marseilles, Lyon and Bordeaux this season. I also think the play of Landreau has thrusted PSG back into contention. It will be interesting to see if these clubs go out and purchase players during the winter break to really challenge OL.
• The pressure of success I think has worn on OL. Winning the league title is not the most important for Lyon. They have clearly dominated league play for the past 7 seasons...but they have always missed on the ultimate prize - Europe. I think Lyon needs to at least get to a Champions League finals, and really needs to win European silverware for this winning run to be truly categorized as "legendary." They have reached the 1/4 finals a few times, the hardest being in 2006 losing an apparent ticket to the 1/2 finals at the San Siro when they fell apart in the last 5 minutes to a battling AC Milan team. Has this pressure mounted on Lyon? And if it has, does it show in their play?

I will not pick again Lyon to win another title, but I think that the French league will be one worth watching this season, unlike the past few that have been victory laps for Lyon starting in February.