Happy New Year to all...and some bold predictions from the Frog

First of all, a happy New Year to all. Maybe 2014 bring you much joy and happiness.

Here are some bold predictions for the coming year from the Frog:

• Bayern Munich will repeat as Champions League winners. The Bavarian steam roller is looking as solid as it did last season when it won the treble. Not only has this side remained fairly intact from last campaign but it has added Guardiola as well at Gotze - fresh thinking in the management chair and one of the best German players on the pitch. Granted they need to have Robben back at full strength and ensure they do not suffer any injuries, but that can be said for all the other clubs. But in the end I think we will see our first repeat Champions League winners since Milan did it in 1990 powered by their Dutch trio of Rijkaard, Van Basten and Gullit.

  

  Treble repeat?

• PSG will repeat in Ligue 1 and make a deep run in the Champions League. The fat coffers of PSG make them hard to compete with in Ligue 1, and with this buying power I think that the Parisians will make some bold purchases this transfer window to ensure they stay atop Ligue 1 and gear up for a run in the CL. Even if they let go of the likes of Menez, Verratti and Pastore. I could envisage a run at Mata from Chelsea since the Special One does not seem to want to use him or targeting Cabaye at Newcastle (I know Arsenal might go back there, but will Pardew look to stick it to Wenger and ship the midfielder back to France?). Pogba is also in the target but not sure the Old Lady will let go so easily of their young midfielder. That might be a move in the cards for the summer transfer window. PSG have enough depth to hold off the likes of Lille, Monaco and OM for the Ligue 1 title. They also have the talent to make a push in the Champions League...and also a very motivated Zlatan who will want to show the world what they are going to be missing at the World Cup.
• Arsenal will finally win some silverware...and make a big splash this January. The Gunners will win the EPL...if they make that big transfer splash. If Arsenal do not add to this roster they will fade away in the EPL. The fact they drew Bayern is a blessing since it should be a quick ending for their European title hopes. Maybe Wenger should just look at those matches as he would a Carling Cup game and blood some of his youth. Hahaaa. I do think that Wenger will have enough if he adds some muscle this transfer window. Another striker, regardless of what Giroud says, must be

  

  Red Devil coming to the Emirates?

  added. Benteke has been rumored and would be a great fit, Costa is also rumored but I don't see that move happening. A midfielder - Cabaye? Wenger has said he is no longer interested but we shall see. An interesting name that has emerged is Le Petit Velo - Valbuena from OM. He could be a very interesting fit, being able to play in the middle of the park or out on the flanks. There is also the possibility of Wenger adding to his stable of German players and signing Daxler, that would be a real game changer of a move. Of course there is also the possibility of Vermaelen leaving, but could Wenger should have cover with Flamini being able to slot back in an emergency. Bottom line - Wenger makes some of these moves and Arsenal win the EPL.  He doesn't and the Gunners fall back into the pack - not enough depth to sustain the run they are on.
• Only one European nation will get to the World Cup semifinals. And it will not be Spain. The semi finals will pit Brazil vs Germany and Argentina vs Uruguay, a real Copa Sud America feel. South Korea will surprise some by getting of the group stages ahead of Algeria and Russia. Spain will fall in the 1/4 finals to Cavani and Suarez of Uruguay. Brazil will have to face a very difficult gauntlet of European power houses in Holland, Italy and Germany before getting to the finals. The US will surprise many by finishing second in the Group of Death but will crash out in the knock out round against Les Diables Rouge of Belgium...which also means Portugal will fail to impress and actually lose their game to the US and finish third in the group of death. Argentina will have an easier go at it facing the Swiss in the group of 16, then Belgium in the 1/4 finals then having to beat Uruguay and finally setting up an epic Brazil v Argentina World Cup final....where Messi, Higuain, Aguero, Di Maria, et al will win a third World Cup for La Albiceleste. Just think...Brazil v Argentina in a World Cup final...in Rio. Wow.
• France will not entirely embarrass themselves at the World Cup. Les Bleus will win their group and beat Nigeria to get to the 1/4 finals...where they will get trounced by De Nationalmannschaft in the 1/4 finals. However Paul Pogba will emerge as one of the world's best midfield talents as well as the engine that will run the French midfield and team

  

  Surprise inclusion for DD as cover for Ribery on the left?

  for years to come. Deschamps will also lean heavily on the 4-3-3 and maximize the talents of his midfield depth in the likes of Pogba, Cabaye, Matuidi, Sissoko, Mavuba et al. He will also make a surprise inclusion in the national side - Schneiderlan, Niang, Griezmann or Zouma are all candidates for that surprise trip to Brazil. It will be interesting to see who Deschamps looks to bring to Brazil with him, with many of the U21 players that had been suspended by the FFF are now eligible to come back to international duty - that also includes M'Vila. Will DD hold their little visit to a night club against them, or have they paid for their errors? I am sure that DD will also have an eye turned to the upcoming European Championship which will be held in France. Something to keep an eye on.

2014, being a World Cup year, will surely be a great one for footy. What we have to hope for is not big name player get injured prior to the World Cup and they are not all too exhausted from an over flowing domestic season to not give us a great tournament in Brazil. It will be great to see the World Cup head back to South America for the first time since Argentina hosted the event in 1978 and that it has not been back in Brazil since 1950!

Happy New Year to all!

Champions League round of 16 Part 2

Week two that kicks off another flurry of matches for the Champions League

19 February 2013

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Porto		20.45		Málaga
Referee: TBD – Stadium: Estádio do Dragão, Porto (POR)
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Arsenal		20.45		Bayern
Referee: TBD – Stadium: Arsenal Stadium, London (ENG)

20 February 2013

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Galatasaray		20.45		Schalke
Referee: TBD – Stadium: Ali Sami Yen Spor Kompleksi, Istanbul (TUR)
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Milan		20.45		Barcelona
Referee: TBD – Stadium: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan (ITA)

Porto v Malaga: Malaga might no longer be solvent by the time this game is played...okay that was mean. Porto are quietly continuing to post solid results in Europe. Look for the Portuguese giants to dispatch of their Spanish rivals 4-2 on aggregate.

Arsenal v Bayern: Well you did it again Arsene, got Arsenal out of the group stages...so I guess that means it was a "successful" season once again for the Gunners. Alas. I think that the ride is over for the Gunners when they face the runners up from last year's Champions League. The likes of Robben, Muller, Schwieny, Ribery et al are set to try to get back to the finals. I just do not think that Arsenal have the steel to deal with the German giants. Bayern move on 5-1 on aggregate.

Galatasary v Schalke: Any time one of the Istanbul clubs goes deep into the Champions League it makes for interesting times! Add to this the new additions of Scheider and Drogba and all of a sudden you have a side that might make a deep run. They will face off against a solid Schalke side. But I cannot see the Turkish side not making some noise now that it has added some solid pieces to an already good side. Galatasary head to next round with a 2-1 aggregate victory. 

Milan v Barcelona: Maybe if this were the Milan of Gullit and Van Basten we would have a mouth watering match....hmmmm just think of that match up. Baresi, Maldini et al trying to stop Messi, Xavi and Iniesta...while the Puyol and Pique would have to find a way to containt Van Basten and Gullit....anyways. This version of Milan will have no answers for the Barcelona attack. Look for Messi and co to go through relatively easily 6-1 on aggregate.

Champions League finals preview

One more club match before we can start turning our full attention to the World Cup, then again according to the Special One this game is bigger than that silly tournament that will be held in South Africa. Anyways, we all know that Mourinho is susceptible to bouts of delusional grandeur. Of course if anyone had wagered that these two teams would be in the finals...well they would have made a tidy profit today.

The question to me is whether or not Inter will be able to block Bayern, Robben in particular, as they did against Barcelona. We all know that Barca is a much more offensively prolific side than the German champions, so on paper one would think that Inter and their defense will have an easier time against Bayern. Without Ribery, I think that Bayern will be hamstrung against what we all know will be a stout Inter defensive system. Much like against Messi et al, I imagine that Mourinho will scheme to have Cambiasso and Chivu nipping at the heels of Robben all game, where ever he goes one of the defensive midfielders will be right there, whenever the Dutch winger gets close to the offensive 1/3 of the pitch I am sure one of the Inter defenders will converge as well - Maicon or Zanetti - I would think Zanetti might be tasked with watching Robben regardless of which wing he is one since Maicon is a little to offensive minded. Much will be expected of Lucio and Samuel to keep an eye on Olic and Muller down the middle.

Bayern will have to worry about containing the counter attacks which will most likely channel through Sneijder and be looking to spring Eto'o or Milito behind the Bayern defense. Van Buyten and the rest of the Bayern defense should be able to contain this threat, but I fear that Butt remains the weak link and could easily concede a soft goal.

I fear that this game will be a drab game with Inter defending and looking to counter with Bayern being frustrated to break down the defense. Had Ribery not been suspended I think Bayern would stand a very good chance in this game, not sure Inter could slow down the Ribery - Robben attacks down the wing. Alas, that is not the case. So who will win the match....

Inter win 1-0. Mourinho is seem running around the pitch screaming that he is the greatest and will actually keep the Champions League trophy for himself and not allow his players to have a victory lap. He will then announce that since he is so great Inter Milan will be entered into the World Cup representing his own ego which is about as big as a western European country.

Other side story - Robben and Sneijder will be back in Madrid where they had unsuccessful stints playing for the local side - Real Madrid, must be some level of revenge for both. Both clubs are also sitting on a treble having both won their domestic titles and cups.

Champions League - Return leg for 1/2 finals

So what can one say about the ability of the Frog to predict matches...um...usually it is the inverse of what is written in this blog! I thought that the Inter v Barca match would be be a tightly played, low scoring match while the Bayner v Lyon had the potential for 4 goals....ooops.

This week we will have the 2 return legs with Inter heading to Barcelona with a 3-1 lead and Bayern heads to Lyon with a 1-0 lead.

First the match in Lyon. OL will miss Toulalan due to a red card while Bayern will suffer the same fate with Ribery. This gives Lyon a slight advantage since Bayern will not have their dangerous left winger. Granted, when Ribery went out Robben stepped up his game and was absolutely impossible to contain, granted once Lyon went down to 10 players he had much more room to roam and his goal was completely deserved. Lyon might be in trouble with their central defenders with Boumsong and Cris coming back from injury. I would think Gonanlons will be slotted as the holding midfielder with Boumsong and Cris in central defense. Much will be expected from the young midfielder to check Robben's runs. However based on what I saw in Munich, I fear that Lyon was overwhelmed by a Bayern team that was clicking with Robben and Ribery running wild on the wings. Even without Ribery, I think that Lyon will have difficulty controlling Robben for 90 minutes. I am not sure that Lyon can keep Bayern off the score sheet, meaning that Lyon will have to score at least 3 goals. Which I fear is to much to ask of this side - prediction: Lyon 1 Bayern 1 - Bayern through 2-1 on aggragate.

The second match comes off a very surprising 3-1 Inter victory in Milan against the team many feel is destined to defend their title of Champions League. Barcelona seemed completely out of sorts during the first leg. Without Iniesta, the Spanish club's midfield revolved entirely around Xavi and his ability to break down the Italian defense. Something he did not have the facility to do as he had against Arsenal. Messi was also contained, every time he came close to the ball he had his national teammate Cambiasso right on his heels usually with another defender to trap the Argentine flea. On the other hand Inter was clinical on the counter attack taking their chances and while the build ups were no way near as pretty as Barcelona's they were very effective - 3 goals. However this tie is far from over - with the away goal in hand, Barcelona have a belief they can get at least 2 goals on Inter. The question will become - can Barcelona hold off Inter from the score sheet? I cannot imagine Inter not taking the same strategy - look to shut down Xavi and keep a shadow on Messi. Inter will then look to continue to beat Barcelona on the counter - feeding Eto'o and Milito. Could Guardiola slot Henry back on the left with Ibra and Messi as a 3 headed attack formation? Try to give the formation much more width with Henry out on the left. This match will be very entertaining. I think Barcelona will come out guns blazing and look to get an early goal. If Inter can stem this early tide they are in good shape, otherwise it might become a back and forth match. I think Barcelona go up 2-0 at half time, Inter scores via Eto'o in the 70th minute only to see Barcelona fight back in added time to get the 3-1 victory which makes the aggregate a tie. In extra time both sides play more cautiously and the game goes to penalty kicks....Barca wins 6-5 in PKs.....

Barcelona v Bayern in the finals....

Lyon v Bayern - the forgotten Champions League semi final

After a shocking 3-1 win by Inter over Barca yesterday, we have the second semi finals today in Munich between Lyon and Bayern. After having to take planes, trains and automobiles...minus the planes...Lyon finally got to Munich. On paper they are the underdog. Bayern is peeking and scored a famous win over Manchester United in the last round. With Robben and Ribery picking up the pace on the wings and Olic scoring goals in bunches, it appears that the former French champion might be in for a long day.

Not so sure. With Sissoko and Reveillere on the flanks, Lyon have the players that can hold their own versus the powerful Bayern wingers. In addition, Van Bommel is suspended taking out some steel from the middle of the Bayern side as well as Badstuber, the left back, who is suspended. That should free up space for Pjanic to pull the strings in the midfield for OL. Bayern cannot underestimate the Lyon strikers such as Lisandro. Finally the x factor for both sides are their keepers - positive for Lyon huge negative for Bayern. Hugo Lloris might just steal a game in this home and away tie.



I think that Lyon will play much like they have all Champions League - organized defensively and look to counter. They will not be afraid to allow Bayern to do what they want with the ball for 2/3 of the pitch and then lock down when it gets into the Lyon defensive third of the pitch. They have tremendous faith that Lloris can come up with the big saves when called upon. The key for Bayern will be Robben, if he can win his battle with Sissoko then Bayern could find themselves with a fruitful night, otherwise it will end a draw.

Prediction - Lyon 1 Bayern 0 - goal from Bastos late into the second half.

Champions League 1/4 finals surprise surprise

Some interesting story lines are emerging from the Champions League and the first day of 1/4 final matches. First Bayern Munich find a way to come back after an early Rooney strike to find a 2-1 victory.  A little bit of revenge from the 1999 finals where Manchester United pulled back 2 goals in the dying minutes to complete their treble. Granted this is the 1/4 finals and there remains the difficult return leg in Manchester. However if Rooney, who limped off late and was seen on crutches, is not available for the return leg while Bayern might be getting Robben back it might be game over for the Red Devils. Ribery already terrorized the English champions with his runs on the left wing, add a healthy Robben to the right wing and I am not sure Manchester United will be able to pull back the victory. With the two fast wingers, SAF will need to change his midfield allowing for Park and Valencia to assist the wide defenders in containing the Bayern wingers. This might limit the ability for the Red Devils to take advantage of the offensive runs from Evra. Of course Manchester United do have the away goal and are heading home, so they technically sit in the driver's seat, however if Bayern score first and if Rooney is not 100% that advantage is minimal. Throw into this equation the fact Manchester United are playing Chelsea this weekend in what many are touting the match for the league title and the next few days will be difficult for Manchester United to navigate.

The second, all French affair, was not as one sided as the final score would indicate with Lyon securing a 3-1 victory over Bordeaux. The game was wide open with both sides with great opportunities and Lloris making some tremendous saves to keep his team at 1 goal against. Bordeaux had some chances with Gourcuff playing closer to his top level than he has in the past few months. Lyon did show an ability to sustain their game, to constantly attack from any area of the pitch and defend as a block. With Lloris playing the way he is, Lyon have to believe in their ability to get to their first semi finals of the Champions League. This might be a bad omen for Bordeaux who lost to Marseilles this past weekend in the League Cup finals, if they cannot find a way to climb out of the 2 goal hole next week they will drop out of another competition. What started as a very promising week is not looking as positive.

Some highlights:

Landycakes in Europe?

Latest news is that Landy cakes will try his hand in Europe football again. He might be heading back to Germany, this time with Bayern Munich.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iUd7ZCg8vvue2Sc7r38z1l08GSAg

Hmmmm...interesting. I guess the surfing has gotten better in Germany...but anyways. When I first saw these rumors I was scratching my head about this move. Landy Cakes has never demonstrated the back bone to play at a higher level of footie. The first and only time he attempted the European adventure he came scurrying back to the states with his tail between his legs. His excuse was something about missing the surfing of California etc etc.....Now, Landy Cakes is not old at all, really entering the prime of his career, so maybe the move back to Europe is a good idea. However has he really shown anything during his time in the MLS to give anyone hope that he will be anything but a substitute at Bayern? He has led the MLS in scoring, but plays for a horrible team and has not carried them to any glory. He has done well in high pressured matches between the US and Mexico....however he was a timid shell of himself in the World Cup Germany. So which player could show up in Europe?

I think that the timid player we last saw on the global stage during Ghana vs United States will be the one that shows up more than less. I think Donovan will not be ready for the rigorous of training and playing when it is cold and snowing out during the December and January months. I am also hesitant to see him playing a much more intense schedule between league games, cup games and Champions league games.

In the end I think this is the right move for him, he needs to find out if he can play club soccer at the highest level. However I doubt he will be as successful as he thinks he can be. The true test will be his ability to handle the adversity and set backs he is destined to encounter. I see him playing 1 or 2 seasons with Bayern, sitting on the bench and will eventually find himself at either a smaller club in Germany or elsewhere in Europe. I do not see him ending up in Spain or England.

Good luck Landy Cakes, hopefully your time will be worth it.