Welcome to the "Frog," my little piece of cyberspace to talk about my passion - le foot (or soccer for my North American friends) especially anything around French football. Of course I will have some guest contributors that might want to discuss other aspects of footy!
I support Les Bleus, Arsenal and PSG but really just love watching, analyzing and following the beautiful game.
"You have to trust your teammates, always. If not we are lost."
PSG now knows the penalty they will pay under the new UEFA "Fair Play" rules to target rampant spending (think PSG and Manchester City). Speaking of the citizens, they are believed to be fined a hefty amount as well - 50m pounds. But for this post, let us focus on what PSG is facing next season. After trying to convince UEFA that their sponsorship deal
PSG ... you have been naughty
with the Qatar Tourism Authority for £167m-a-year was deemed not valid and put PSG in violation of the fair play rule. The penalties PSG face:
PSG will not be able to increase their payroll, which is already the highest in Europe at 240m euros.
PSG will not be allowed to purchase any players during the transfer window until they sell off players. They can also only spend 60m Euros on one "star player" but cannot break it down into 2 players for 30m or 3 for 20m. Not sure what about buying rotation players at say 5m Euros...
With regards to transfers, they are allowed only 21 players on their Champions League roster as opposed to the usual 25 player list. Also at least 8 must be formed by the club.
Finally they will have to pay a nice little fine of 60m euros paid out over 3 years.
With this ruling, expect things to be very interesting in Paris this summer. It could be argued that if PSG had a healthy Zlatan they might have gone further in the Champions League, something their wealthy owners are most interested in than saving a few Euros to get back in the good graces with UEFA. Their current squad should once again challenge for Ligue 1 as well as domestic cups next season, even if they do not add any new players. Other than the obvious impact on the coffers, here are some story lines to be watched:
Look for many of the rumors of player exits to gain more steam and some coming to fruition. Even without this penalty, PSG had to do something with Cavani. Under Blanc's current system, the striker has had difficulty emulating the impact he had in Italy with Napoli. Rolling out a 4-3-3 left the Uruguayan striker out wide, somewhere he did not seem comfortable being. With rumors abound about him heading to the EPL, Manchester United being one of the most discussed destinations, I think there is fire where there is so much smoke. Look for Cavani to end up either in Manchester or in London with Chelsea. This will also free up 10m Euros in salary.
The log jam in the midfield. Blanc leans on the trident of Matuidi, Motta and Veratti in his 4-3-3. With the addition of Cabaye over the winter, and the rumors of targeting Pogba as well as the emergence of Rabiot and you have a bit of a log jam. It will be interesting to see if the Pogba transfer gets shelved and what happens with Rabiot, who is rumored to be heading to Chelsea. Will PSG look to off load Veratti? Sell him to the likes of Arsenal? What about the Pastore? Who is really a central midfielder and has been more of a bench player. I see Pastore being moved, probably back to Italy as he is excess already and moving his 4m Euro salary would be seen as an addition by subtraction. I think Rabiot will be kept. Not only is he a talent but he is home grown...something that is going to carry even greater importance next season. Also, look for Sissoko to be moved as well.
Speaking of log jams, what about the wingers? Menez, Lucas and Lavezzi are all
Closer to reality?
options on the wings. As is, out of position Cavani. However there are some rumors that PSG will make a push to bring back Hazard to Ligue 1. The fact the Belgium winger has had some words with the Special One, might add some fuel to that fire. Could PSG move Menez and Lavezzi, to then use their one big signing to get Hazard? That would slot Hazard on the left and Lucas on the right...seems like a good formula. With Menez and Lavezzi out - PSG would save over 7m Euros. Granted if they added a player of the likes of Hazard they would be adding payroll.
PSG will have to do some house keeping this summer. They will have to get rid of some of the expensive dead weight they have - Pastore, Menez, Sissoko are first to come to mind. They will need to figure out what to do with Cavani. I think the situation, both on the field and on the balance sheet means he will be heading out of Paris.
By the beginning of next season PSG will still be a favorite to win the Ligue 1 title. The question will become, can they manage the balance sheet and the penalties to get their club to a position where they can challenge for a European title?
So UEFA today announced the possibility of another international tournament, in the off years from the World Cup and European Cup - the League of Nations. We all know how well the league of nations did prior to the advent of the United Nations. Thanks Mr Wilson for not joining...well it is debatable whether or not Wilson wanted to join but was blocked by congress. Anyways I digress into my political science nerdiness.
This new league of nations would seem to be a hybrid domestic system and US styled playoff - with groups that have relegation and promotion and the nations atop each group would face off on neutral sites. Not quite sure about this idea. Other than looking to find a way to make some more money. International footy really runs in 4 year cycles, between
This version didn't fare so well
World Cups and European Cups. In between there is also the Confederations Cup, which for all its faults actually has become a good little tournament - allowing the future host of the World Cup have a dress rehearsal. Speaking of which I wonder if we will have to see a Confed Cup in the winter prior to Qatar hosting their World Cup (what a fiasco)....with that in mind there is really only one year out of four that does not have some international footy tournament going on. So do we really need to force one into that slot??
Those who know me and read this blog know that I am a huge fan of international matches. I definitely side with country in the club v country debate. But this is even too much for me. Players are already taxed way too much. The beauty of the World Cup and European Cup are that they remain exclusive (with the expansion of the European Cup I might argue that no longer holds true to that competition) - nations take two years to qualify all the drama and lead up makes these events the global phenomenons they are. Adding more trophies to be won feels like a cheap excuse to grab more money. I know that greed begets greed. But as the saying goes - pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. UEFA don't be a hog.
The rumors continue to swirl that the World Cup in 2022 will be played in the winter. Due to the high heat of the middle east during the summer months. Seriously? This continues to show what a farce the entire World Cup in Qatar has been. The potential for extreme heat continues to haunt the World Cup venue. Hmmm, have UEFA and FIFA only now realized that it gets hot in Qatar? Have none of the governing body looked at a weather report or better yet, been in Qatar during the summer months?
This once again speaks to the money grabbing and corruption that is rampant in international soccer. There is no way that Qatar should have been a)allowed to bid for the World Cup b)won the bid. I am not against having the World Cup in new venues...but there are some places that are not feasible. Due to weather issues, geography, size of nation and standing in the international football landscape. These should and do play factors in being able to host such a tournament. All these factors should have ruled out Qatar from the start. Alas, money trumped common sense.
Now UEFA and FIFA are paying for the mockery they made of the process. Those that will really pay are the players and fans that might have to deal with oppressive heat in 2022.
Sigh, the latest "brilliant" idea from UEFA is to have the Euro games spread across a number of cities and nations...why? UEFA will have 13 cities host the tournament in 2020. Again why? Not sure I agree with this. I realize that as the tournament has expanded, it has become more difficult for a single nation to host all the games. Look at all the problems that were cropping up for Ukraine/Poland. Hmmm, well maybe the tournament should not have been expanded! Granted, I am old school and really enjoyed the tournament when it was only 8 teams. Made qualifiers real nail biters. The 16 team tourney is good, I will admit. But the expansion for the next version to 24 is ridiculous. Why not invite Brazil and Argentina and just call it the World Cup???
Now we will not have a true host nation. I think that the tournament will lose some of its appeal. Having all the games in one nation, or co-host nations, means the fans and the fanfare are concentrated in one region. Fans of nations that progress can easily find their way to where the team is playing. Now if your nation starts in Berlin, and then ends up in Madrid...uh that is not an easy trip. What about the teams? They already complain if they have to travel from Warsaw to Kiev! Finally, this takes away the opportunity for matches to be played in smaller venues. How cool is it when a big international match gets hosted in a venue that does not get a game of such a stature? Towns such as Gdansk or Lviv will probably never see such a match moving forward. Now we will only see matches in places like Wembley, the Bernabeu or Stade de France.
I guess UEFA would like to see the games and money spread out across a host of nations and cities. I just feel as if the expansion of teams and now putting games all over Europe is diluting what was a wonderful tournament. Of course we will all still watch, but it has lost the luster it once had.
Interesting news from the world of soccer that could impact Les Bleus and their qualifying campaign - read here. Bosnia has been suspended from FIFA and UEFA...meaning they might not be able to complete their Euro qualifiers. While they sit 4th in Group D, they have a game in hand and assuming they win that match would only be 2 points off the pace set by group leaders France.
It would be unfortunate if this were to occur, Bosnia is one of Europe's up and coming nations with the likes of Pjanic and Dzeko, not having these players participate in international competitions would be a shame. All this over the Bosnian FA not complying with president rules outlined by the UEFA. The root cause - ethnic division within the FA. Again, rekindling some old political and ethnic divisions, sad, but reality of what are the Balkans.
Let us hope that Bosnia can at least play out the remainder of the qualifiers and Euro if they qualify. This is similar to what happened to the former Yugoslavia in 1992 when the war disqualified them from the Euros...where replacement nation Denmark went on to win the trophy!
I realize that is hard to believe after the spending spree we just witnessed in the EPL at the end of the transfer window...I am still flabbergasted at the fee Liverpool paid for Andy Carroll. £35m...really? I am not sure who advised John Henry on that one, but clearly the owner of the Red Sox and Liverpool is not shy to splash out the cash this year...see how much he has paid Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to play for the Red Sox (being a Red Sox fan I am not complaining mind you). However this latest spending spree has caught the eye of UEFA, who have come out and said that they will be serious when it comes to enforcing more sound fiscal policies for clubs.
European teams will need to be fiscally sound if they hope to play in European competitions. Sounds good. It will be difficult to enforce - example what if a billionaire Russian buys a London club and basically uses his own piles of cash to subsidize the team's books to ensure there is no "debt." I realize that this does not construe breaking even on "soccer business" however I am sure there will be ways around that. Maybe this Russian's other holdings will magically spend an inordinate amount of money to have some sponsorships with the club. Or maybe many of the non-player expenses will be "outsourced" and covered by a holding company, therefore moving the costs off the club's books.
In light of what happened over the past few days, this is a good sign, but UEFA better be crystal clear as to what they mean by "soccer" business as well as how they will be scrutinizing the books. Otherwise we will just make more lawyers and accountants wealthy as they play shell games with the finances and books associated with football clubs.
The round of 16 is set for the Champions League, with some old friends meeting again on the pitch. What any Arsenal fan feared...getting Barca...again. Similar to last campaign when the Spanish giants completely demolished the North London outfit, the Gunners will have to face their nemesis once again. Unfortunately I am not sure that anything will change for the Gunners. So the match ups -
AS Roma vs Shakhtar Donetsk: Not an easy draw for the Italian side. The Ukranian champs are always a tough fixture. I think that Roma have enough to get through, but just barely. Roma 2 - Shaktar 1 aggregate
Milan vs Tottenham Hotspur: Ah Tottenham facing the other Milan club...this will be a very intregueing tie, not sure how Spurs will deal with the increased pressure of the Champions League. I look for the likes of Robinho and Ibra to run the Spurs back line ragged, the question is can Milan contain the Welsh winger - Bale? Milan through 3-3 on away goals.
Valencia vs Schalke 04: Well Raul will get to face some old foes from La Liga. Schalke 04 is one of those sides that is quietly doing well for itself this campaign, they handled Lyon easily, defeated Bayern...granted gave up 5 goals as well, but overall a side moving in the right direction. Schalke 04 through 3-1 on aggregate.
Inter Milan vs Bayern Munich: Ah another rematch, this one from last Champion League's finals. However there is no Special One this time around...and an apparently healthier Ribery. Eto'o is on fire for Inter, but Ribery and the Bavarian crew seem to be starting to hit their stride. Revenge will be a good motivator and while Rafa is usually the master of these knock outs, I think he will struggle. Bayern through 4-1 on aggregate.
Olympique Lyon vs Real Madrid: Last time these two met, OL surprised everyone by knocking off the Spanish giants, this was before Mourinho took over. OL could pull off the upset again, but I am not sure that Lloris et al will be as fortunate this time at Madrid (last season Higuain and his merry bunch missed a few sitters which would have killed off the game). Real through 2-0 on aggregate.
Arsenal vs Barcelona: The rematch I had no desire to see...Barcelona still too strong, Arsenal still no keeper and weak in central defense...meaning....ugly. Barca 5-1 on aggregate. To see why just watch the highlights of Messi tearing up the Arsenal defense last season...not pretty from an Arsenal perspective.
Olympique Marseille vs Manchester United: On paper this one would go to the EPL club, but not so fast. OM has some cards to play. I think that ManU is not the side they have been in recent history and Marseilles have shown they can travel to England with some success - see the game at Anfield. While I think it is a long shot, I think that Marseilles have a chance to sneak through. OM 2-1 on aggregate.
København vs Chelsea: This would usually have been the draw when Mourinho was there! If the Danish side knocks of Chelsea that will be a huge upset...no duh. Chelsea 5 - 1 on aggregate.
Well it does not look good for Ligue 1 nor Arsenal, Schalke 04 might surprise some teams ... we shall see. A reminder of what Messi did last year to Arsenal...
I will admit, not surprising, I have a tremendous amount of respect for Wenger. He is my countryman, manages one of my favorite sides and might manage my favorite team PSG! Unfortunately, one aspect of Arsene that always drives me crazy is the fact he seems a little whiny when his side do not get their way. Case in point - the complaints about the 5 man officiating system in place for UEFA Champions League matches. Whether or not Vela was taken down or took a dive the 5 officials are still not fool proof, and sometimes a player's reputation proceeds him. Yet to blame the system for your team's loss seems a bit childish, take your ball and go home. I am not sure what Wenger wants, a 6th official, video, robots to officiate, red flags from the managers to request instant replay??? The system is still a work a progress, no doubt, but let us continue to work and push the idea of more eyes on a pitch to officiate a game but keep in mind that we are still talking about human error. That will never go away no matter how many officials we have watching a game. Maybe Wenger should ask Capello and Lampard whether or not they would have liked a official on the goal line during the World Cup....
Well that is not a difficult prediction since the two Ligue 1 clubs in the Champions League will face one another in the quarter finals - Lyon versus Bordeaux. Fortune since France is guaranteed a club to get to the 1/2 finals, unfortunate that both clubs do not have a chance to both try and make the next round.
The irony for clubs like Barca, Arsenal and Manchester United is that two of the "weaker" clubs are facing one another - Lyon v Bordeaux. I am sure Barca would have rather faced a French club over the North London french club. A quick look at the draw -
Lyon v Bordeaux. Bitter sweet draw for Ligue 1. Lyon has shown a different style in the Champions League as opposed to during domestic play. I think this is a complete toss up, but I am going to side with Laurent Blanc's side. Bordeaux go through.
Manchester United v Bayern Munich: The Red Devils fall upon a club that is starting to pick up their game - with Ribery and Robben back healthy they have the width, creativity and pace that could give Manchester United problems. With the Bavarian giants be able to contain Rooney? That will be the key. The former Everton player is playing at a higher level these days and could simply carry the Devils to the next level. I think that Bayern will exploit the weakness on defense withe the Ribery-Robben duo. Bayern Munich with the upset and head through.
Arsenal v Barcelona: Ouch for the Gunners...a few years back they made a great run to the Champions League finals in Paris only to fall to Barcelona. Granted there is no Lehmann present to pick up a red card and throw the North London club into a difficult situation. Underlying all of this will be Cesc versus his former club. With the rumors that continue to swirl around his going back to Spain whether for Barca or Real this summer, Cesc will be very motivated to carry his current club to the semi-finals. Finally the other story line to follow is that Barca plays the way Arsenal strives to play - quality ball control through a quality midfield and look to hit on surgical passes behind the defense. Unfortunately the Gunners look to Bendtner to finish...Barca have Ibrahimovic to finish or Messi or Henry. I cannot see Arsenal finding a way to score enough goals over 2 matches against the defending Champions League champions. Barcelona go through.
Inter vs CSKA: Ah after a battle with his old club, the Special One draws one of the weaker clubs for his next round. Not to say that the Moscow club is a push over, heading to the Mother Land will be no easy task for Inter. However I think that Inter has too much talent and fire power. Unlike Sevilla, they will understand how to manage a return leg if they have a lead. Inter gets through.
So we will have:
Bayern v Bordeaux
Barcelona v Inter
I see a Bayern v Barcelona final with the Catalan giants winning back to back Champions League titles.
Okay Okay...the hysteria over the Titi Henry "Hand of Frog" has barely died down, but the pots for the qualifiers for the Euro 2012 are out...and how ironic would it be if Les Bleus were drawn with the Irish...the pots:
Qualifying will be similar to what we just went through for the World Cup - winners of each group go through. The top 8 second place nations go into a home and away play off. A quick look at the Pots:
Pot 1 - no real surprise, the weakest could be Croatia and Russia, which is no walk in the park. Depending on whether or not Hiddink remains with Russia will determine how difficult that nation is to play. However any team with Arshavin is going to be dangerous...a shame he will not be in South Africa next summer. Finally based on their last campaign Les Bleus might not seem as dangerous as the other nations...then again if they have a better manager maybe that will not be the case!
Pot 2 - again no real easy nation, the ones I would fear the most are the Danes, although sometimes they are trick or treat, some years the really punch above their weight and some years they look like Luxembourg. The Czechs will be interesting, they are a nation in transition if they can figure out who they are and which players to lean on, they can be very dangerous. Turkey and Greece are other dangerous nations to face, the Turks were a semi finalist in the last Euro and really underperformed this World Cup qualification campaign. The Greeks are going to only their second world cup and have recaptured some of the mojo that saw them win the Euro in Portugal.
Pot 3 - two of the snubbed nations that lost in the 2nd place play off for the World Cup - Ireland and Bosnia. As well as nations that late in the campaign had legitimate chances to go to South Africa - Bulgaria and North Ireland...no easy nations to face in this pot. Austria and Scotland maybe the weakest, although if Scotland play like last Euro qualifier they will be a handful. I think Austria remains a shell of the former footballing nation that used to be present at major tournaments.
Pot 4 - Slovenia is clearly the nation to avoid, they are heading to South Africa next summer after defeating the Russians in the play offs. They have qualified in the past for Euros so are no push over. Hungary had a respectable qualifying campaign and had a chance late on to head through. The one team I would fear other than Slovenia is Belgium. One must not forget that this nation has had success in major tournaments - 4th place finish in the 1986 World Cup, runners up in the Euros 1980 and they finished 4th in the most recent Olympics and it is safe to assume some of those players will be on the senior side for the Euros. In addition they are not managed by the Dutchman Advocaat.
Pot 5 - Now we get to some of the minnows. The nations I would want to avoid are Iceland and Georgia. The former Soviets have demonstrated they can play spoiler for any nation - look at the result they got against Scotland in the Euro 2008 qualifiers, basically gave France a life line and knocked down the Scots. Iceland is also a difficult nation to play.
Pot 6 - These are the real minnows. Unfortunately for these nations the stand zero chance to be qualified. Securing a draw and not being embarassed are goals they can hope for. Question remains, should they still be included as is? Or should they, like the Champions League, have a preliminary round robin tournament? Maybe have the teams in Pot 5&6 have a home and away play off, the winners will make up Pot 5? I realize that that might take away some revenue since a San Marino will not be able to receive a Spain or Germany, but not sure having France play the Faroe Islands twice accomplishes much.
So the ink has barely dried on the list of teams heading to South Africa for the World Cup...I know the Irish hope it is erasable ink so they can somehow erase the name France and put Ireland in its place! But as is international soccer the next major tournament is being organized. It will be interesting to see how the groups play out.
France
Belarus
Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Romania
Luxembourg
