Champions League - Bundesliga moving up

One of my fellow podcaster and contributor to this blog - The Gooner aka Sam - favorite pet topic is starting to gain some momentum. With all the "excitement" of the Carling Cup...terrible loss for Arsenal...a story came out that Germany has surpassed Italy in terms of UEFA coefficients. Confused? Basically the coefficients are ways for FIFA and UEFA to determine the strength of leagues and nations, resulting in how many teams per league can qualify for the Champions League and Europa Cup as well as where national teams get seeded for qualifiers. For a more in depth explanation click here.

What is interesting is that for the past few years it was always the "big three" in Europe - La Liga in Spain, EPL in England and Serie A in Italy. These three leagues were seen as the top of the hierarchy allowing them to send 4 clubs to the Champions League, but Germany had been quietly creeping up and they have finally ousted Italy from the guaranteed 4 clubs ranks. A testament to Bundesliga clubs who have done well in both European Cup competitions and to some degree a reflection of he disarray in Italy. One has to wonder the impact of the 2006 Calcipoli scandal which saw the likes of Juventus and Fiorentina ousted from Champions League and Lazio kicked out of the then UEFA cup. Juventus was stripped of previous Serie A titles and sent to Serie B. Juventus was a force during those seasons and who knows how they would have fared in the Champions League - they had reached the 1/4 finals in 2005 and 2006.

Couple this with the Bundesliga and its concerted efforts to develop talent from the youth ranks and practicing fiscal responsibility and you get what we have today - Italy down to 3 clubs and Germany up to 4. The interesting fact is Italy's coefficient is closer to France in 5th place than they are to Germany. If Italy falls behind France it will be a true reflection of how far Serie A has fallen in Europe...seems like Sam was on to something!

Rank 2011	Rank 2010	Mvmt	League	2006–07	2007–08	2008–09	2009–10	2010–11	Coeff.	CL places	EL places	Total
1	1	—	England	16.625	17.875	15.000	17.928	15.500	82.928	4	3	7
2	2	—	Spain	19.000	13.875	13.312	17.928	13.214	77.329
3	4	+1	Germany	9.500	13.500	14.333	18.083	14.333	68.103
4	3	−1	Italy	11.928	10.250	11.375	15.428	11.000	59.981	3		6
5	5	—	France	10.000	6.928	11.000	15.000	10.583	53.511
6	9	+3	Portugal	8.083	7.928	6.785	10.000	11.800	44.596

The Bundesliga and Raul, not ready for prime time just yet

One of the points that my fellow footy fan and podcasting partner in crime has made was the rise of the Bundesliga. Sam aka the Gooner, has made the point that the German league was poised to surpass Italy and join England and Spain as the "big three" domestic league. This was reflected in some commentary I have read, the catalyst for this was the fact the Bundesliga was the most profitable league in Europe this past season - only the second time that the EPL was not the most profitable league since its inception in 1992. Add to this the fact that the Bundesliga has jumped Italy with regards to the Champions League - Serie A will send 3 while Germany will get 4 sides in the Champions League (starting in the 2011-12 edition). Finally, Bayern Munich had a great run to the finals of the Champions League - defeating Manchester United along the way as well as Hamburg in the Europa League reaching the semi finals. Of course the German national team is always in the conversation when it comes to European Cups or World Cups. So put this all together and it would make sense to see the Bundesliga as the domestic league most likely to challenge the EPL for top spot. However the transfer of Real Madrid striker Raul to Schalke gave me pause for thought.

Raul reminding us who wore the 7 shirt in Madrid

Raul is clearly on the tail end of what was a successful career, however it is surprising to see him leave Real. Especially considering 2 years ago he was given a "life time" contract. Raul had the opportunity to move to the EPL or the MLS, but instead decided to try his luck in Germany. This could be seen as another indicator of the rise of German domestic football...or that the Bundesliga is still far behind the EPL and La Liga. Why? To me what this shows is that Germany can attract marquee names, but those that are on the decline not the rise. Couple this with the return of Ballack as well as Lehmann a few seasons ago from the EPL and you seem to have a net gain of stars, but those on the down. Granted, Bayern was able to get Ribery from Marseilles when he was heavily linked to the EPL. However those big name moves are few and far between. On the flip side, some of the up and coming names from the Bundesliga are all rumored to be moving to....the EPL, La Liga or even Serie A. Players such as Ozil, Khedira and Dzeko are all on the wish lists of the Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Milan, Inter, Juventus, Barcelona and Real Madrid. Even Scheweinsteiger is rumored on the Real Madrid radar. The aforementioned Ribery was heavily linked to Chelsea and Real Madrid prior to the World Cup and his resigning with the German Champion surprised many. So what does this mean? Clearly if the Bundesliga want to challenge to be one of the top 3 domestic leagues, they cannot allow their young star players escape to the fields of Spain, Italy or England. Until the Bundesliga are signing established name stars, who are in their primes, they will always be chasing the current big three.

The Raul signing is another indicator of how much further the Bundesliga needs to go in order to be considered truly the 3rd or 2nd league of Europe. Being profitable will assist with this task, but until they can match the marketing heft of the EPL, Barcelona, Real Madrid or even the big Italian clubs they will always be chasing these leagues.