France v Bosnia - opportunity for the new France to show itself or more malaise?

Less than 24 hours until Laurent Blanc and Les Bleus head into what will surely be a charged environment of Sarajevo to face Bosnia. This match is proving to be as close to a must win game as has ever faced Les Bleus. After dropping 3 points last week against Belarus while Bosnia took care of their business beating Luxembourg 3-0 away, could have been a heavier victory since Pjanic and Bosnia were up 3-0 after 15 minutes. If Blanc and France leave Sarajevo with no points from 2 games it might be time to focus on securing the second place spot and hoping for a favorable draw for the home and away play off! Not what you would want after only 2 days of qualifying.

Blanc still searching for answers

When the draw was made it was clear that Bosnia would be one of the favorites to win the group with ahem France...the match in Sarajevo always figured to be one France's biggest challenge (the other one away to Romania). During the draw I figured France would hope to take a point away to Bosnia and win on the return leg. Of course I also expected Les Bleus to get at minimum 4 points from their 2 legs against Belarus - victory in Paris and at least a draw away. The situation has only gotten more difficult and challenging for Les Bleus. Add to all these challenges the fact Blanc has lost the majority of his offensive options - Hoarau, Remy and Saha out. Much will be expected of Benzema with regards to carrying the offense. Since we know France and Blanc cannot afford to leave without at least a point, will we see a France more focused on holding off any Bosnian threats. Look to stifle Dzeko, Ibisevic and Pjanic by leaning on a heavily defensive midfield - going back to a 4-2-3-1 formation? Two holding midfielders: M'Vila and Diarra. 3 offensive minded midfielders - Malouda, Menez and Valbuena with Benzema up front. Blanc might look for Malouda to drop deeper to help with defensive duties. Or could Blanc leverage Diaby in the middle 3 - more defensive than Valbuena or Menez...

As Blanc stated, the first goal is for France to defend and ensure at least 1 point from the match. So France find themselves as the underdog heading into this match. Bosnia smell blood in the water and know if they can knock off France they will strike a devastating blow to one of their primary rivals and put themselves in pole position to win the group. We will see if the saying is true - a cornered wounded animal is at its most dangerous. France has been backed into a tough corner, let us see how they react. I think France will defend defend defend to start the match and look to hit Bosnia on the counter. Much will depend on Benzema and if he can carry the offense to Bosnia, he has the ability to do so question remains can he regain that ability that he show cased for Lyon.

This feels like the games away to Romania and Serbia during last qualifying campaign - both France found the intestinal fortitude to fight back and secure a draw in a hostile environment. I expect the same this time. Les Bleus will lean on their strong holding midfield players - Diarra and M'Vila to stifle the Bosnia midfield. Look for Mexes and Rami to counter Dzeko and Ibisevic. Set pieces will be vital for France to defend cleanly and successfully. If they can do so they could keep a clean sheet, but expect France to have to score at least a goal or two to secure the draw or even hope for a win. In the end I think we might see a similar game as to the one played against Serbia. Bosnia will come on very inspired by their home crowd and look to overwhelm France early. I see Dzeko scoring in the first 30 minutes. France will settle down and turn the tide in the second half. Menez - Valbuena - Benzema will be too much for Bosnia to stop for 90 minutes. Menez scores late in the game to grab a vital point for Les Bleus.

Bosnia 1 - France 1

Allez les Bleus

Ligue 1 is here! Frog's predictions and thoughts on upcoming season

Wow, cannot believe that this Saturday we will have the start of the French domestic season...wasn't the World Cup just yesterday? I guess that is a good thing since South Africa was a tournament all France fans want to forget...and soon. Of course the transfer season is not over so some of the French squads might look very different come Sept 1st but here are some predictions based on current rosters and what I think might transpire the next few weeks.

Here are the teams I see finishing in the top 5:

5th Place - Stade Rennaise FC: The club from Brittany finished in the top 10 last year. They did lose the likes of Sow and Briand during the off season so why do I see them getting into the top5? I actually think losing Briand will not be as bad for the squad, not that the player is not talented. However he was injured most of last season, tallying only 5 goals for the side. I think Rennes has always been waiting for him to live up to his enormous potential and has held back the team during this waiting time...with the additions of Apam and Mandjeck they have added some muscle to the squad. The midfield will hinge around youngster M'Vila and former PSG player Leroy. Add the talented but frustrating Dalmat to the mix and the midfield could be very strong. The real catalyst for Rennes, will be the season I expect from Ghana World Cup star Gyan. Many will remember Gyan for missing that penalty kick in the 120th minute against Uruguay but he was a monster the entire tournament and was the offensive force for Ghana. Of course if Rennes ends up selling their star striker then they will fall out of my top 5.

4th Place -Girondins de Bordeaux: The team that took everyone by surprise two season ago by winning Ligue 1 and had a great Champions League run last season also has a number of holes. Namely losing their manager Laurent Blanc. He has been replaced by another French legend, Jean Tigana - who I think is one of France's greatest holding midfielders. Tigana had stints with Fulham, Besiktas, Lyon and Monaco as their manager. He also was one of the

pillars for Bordeaux back in the 1980s, playing over 250 games for the club. Bordeaux has not made major additions other than Tigana, but more importantly they have held on to the majority of their talent - Gourcuff and Diarra to name some of the players that were rumored to moving on. They did lose Chamakh to Arsenal, but the fact he left on a free transfer meant Bordeaux expected to have their striker leave. Assuming they hold on to their key players before September 1st I think they are in a good position to threaten for a Champions League spot. Why? First with the rumors around Laurent Blanc and his move to managing France all of last season, the team clearly suffered and lost focus. This will not be an issue this season. Second, I think Gourcuff and Diarra will be motivated to put the World Cup debacle behind them and show that their form from 2 seasons ago is what we can expect. Third, Tigana will be able to build from a formidable defense - Carasso in goal, Ciani, Chalme, Tremoulinas on defense with captain Diarra acting as the cover from the midfield that is a formidable defense. Finally the midfield will remain strong with Gourcuff, Wendel, Plasil and Gouffran. The real question Bordeaux must answer is: who will make up for the loss of Chamakh in the goal scoring category.

3rd Place - Lille Olympique Sporting Club Lille Métropole: The club from northern France finished 4th last season with a league leading 72 goals for. Add to this offensive powerhouse, former France U19 striker, Moussa Sow from Rennes and you might get close to an 80 goal season. Granted, LOSC will need to ensure they hold on to some of their

highly sought after players names Hazard and Gervinho. The Ivory Coast player is rumored to be moving east to either Spartak or to the EPL, if he does move on how LOSC leverages those funds will determine if they can achieve a 3rd place. I do think that Sow will provide some cover but LOSC will have to find another player to replace some of that offensive punch if Gervinho departs, €20 million would make that somewhat easier! I think that the Belgium wonder kid - Hazard - should be with Lille for at least this season, but he clearly has many of the big named clubs very interesting in getting the new Enzo Scifo. I think that Hazard's value, baring injury, will only go up. However with Gervinho, his value will never be as high as it is post World Cup.  In addition Blanc pre-called up 5 players from Lille, and not including Landreau and you have a very strong core of players to build on for the season. Look for Mavuba to have another strong campaign, I think the international door being reopened to the fiery midfielder will only add to his motivation. The core remains and if they can weather the rest of the transfer season and ensure they have the right pieces in place, they have a legitimate change at making a run at a top 2 spot this season.

2nd Place - Olympique Marseilles: The defending champion will not repeat. Granted maybe this has as much to do with my loyalties to PSG as to the fact I think OM will not repeat the season they enjoyed last year. However it will be a close race. Much will depend on if OM can find the same offensive punch they had last season with Niang, Gonzalez, Valbeuna and Brandao. OM finished second to LOSC in goals scored - 69 to 72. It appears the OM captain, Niang might be out the door. This would be a big mountain for OM to climb to fill this gap. Might be why there has been so much noise around Marseilles making an audacious move for former striker Drogba. If Niang does leave, Marseilles will need to find a way to replace those 18 goals. Add to this the fact Ben Arfa seems on his way to Newcastle and you start seeing some offensive gaps for Marseilles. Marseilles is rumored to be also looking at Adebayor (who played for Deschamps when at Monaco) as well as Gignac. Of course both strikers would come with some baggage - Adebayor's attitude and would he accept to leave the glamor of Manchester City? Gignac was a shell of himself last campaign with Toulouse, can he rediscover the form from 2 seasons ago when he had 24 tallies. OM will still lean on the likes of Cheryrou, Heinze, Taiwo (unless he leaves), Mandanda and Cisse to provide a strong defense. Add to this the Spanish U21 captain - Azpilicueta (who also made the 30 man provisional Spanish World Cup roster) and you have the making of a solid defense. Deschamps will clearly get the most out of his squad, however if he cannot get some offensive talent back in return, especially if Niang and Ben Arfa leave, it will be a challenge to maintain the offensive showing that led OM to the title.

1st Place - Olympique Lyonnaise: OL has not won Ligue 1 in....2 years!! Crisis time. The seven straight winner of the domestic title must be getting very itchy to get back what they see as their title. There was a time last season that they were in trouble and might have not even had European football this season. However they came back strongly and finished second to OM, only 6 point difference. Couple this with a very strong Champions League run defeating Real Madrid and Bordeaux to reach the semi finals, where they fell to Bayern Munich. Take the second half run for Lyon and another year of maturation for some of their squad and I think you have the recipe for another title. The main question for Lyon will be on defense. Boumsong is already gone, I realize he is not as good as his "French international" moniker will have you believe, however he was a solid central defender for Ligue 1 and made a good tandem with Cris. Lyon will have to find a partner for Cris...Toulalan? In addition, the rumor that left back Cissokho might be heading to Italy or Turkey, would be a hole defensively for Lyon. However, the left back remains at the club and the fact Lyon is flush with cash makes his sale seem a long shot. Lyon can build on a solid season from Bosnian youngster Pjanic, French international Toulalan, Brazilian back Bastos, coupled with a solid first season from Lopez and the addition of Briand (who I think will do well with Lyon where he will not be the focus of the team unlike when at Rennes) and the future looks bright for Lyon. In addition Lyon has a solid base of youngsters to build on - 6 players from the U19 European Champions are from Lyon, including Tafer and finals winner scorer Lacazette. I also think that Gonalons will take another major step this season to establish himself as one of Ligue 1's best midfielders. Oh and Lyon still have the best keeper in Ligue 1 and maybe one of the best keepers in Europe - Lloris. Put all this together and Puel and Lyon will find themselves at top of Ligue 1 after a 2 year hiatus.

Some other thoughts: team most likely to disappoint - PSG. Hard for me to keep rooting for my home town team. They did add Nene and Bodmer which will be helpful. However I fear the fundamental issue with the club continue...they have little clue of what is going on. For many seasons now they have not had a good recruiting strategy nor developed via youth - Sakho aside. The main issue for PSG is holding on to some of their key players - Hourau, Sessegnon, Clement, Sakho, Chantome and Erdinc - these players will be needed for PSG for to make any semblance of a run. With the noise around many of these players looking for the exit signs, I fear that PSG will once again look at a net loss in terms of players. PSG have no real base to build from and this will show once again this season. Team most likely to surprise ... again ...Montpellier HSC. The surprise team from last season will do so again. Building on their youth especially Ait-Fana as well as some veteran talent in the form of Estrada from Chile, the team from the south of France have a chance to make a run at Europe. I do not think they will make a real threat for a top 3 slot but could sneak into the top 5. The one issue for Montpellier is that they will not longer be able to sneak up on any of the Ligue 1 sides.

Teams that will be relegated: Sochaux, AC Arles-Avignon and St Etienne.

Player of the year: Pjanic - the Lyon midfielder will only get better and will clearly be the main cog in the Lyon midfield. Will also make the Bosnian national team a dark horse to get to Euro 2012.

Manager of the year: Puel. The Lyon manager is much maligned since he is the first in a long time not to win the title for Lyon. That will change this season. The team has been transformed into his team and he will guide them to another Ligue 1 title.

Glad to see Ligue 1 starting up this Saturday, not happy still that Setanta went out of business in North America...they were a great resource for watching Ligue 1 games. Another good write up on Ligue 1 from ESPN as well. Thankfully I still have TV5 but that means only 1 game a week!

Ligue 1 reaches the winter break: Meet the new boss same as the old Boss

Ligue 1 goes into its winter break with the same leader it had to end last season - Bordeaux. Not really a big surprise considering Laurent Blanc's side was able to retain its core prior to starting the new season: in particular ensuring that Chamakh remained with the squad, who was heavily recruited by the North Londoners.

Here are the standings as we head to the winter break:

		Clubs	Pts	J	G	N	P	Bp	Bc	Diff
1			Girondins de Bordeaux	43	19	14	1	4	32	12	+20
2			LOSC Lille Métropole	34	19	10	4	5	37	19	+18
3			Montpellier Hérault SC	33	18	10	3	5	26	21	+5
4			Olympique de Marseille	32	18	9	5	4	30	20	+10
5			AJ Auxerre	32	19	9	5	5	19	15	+4
6			Olympique Lyonnais	30	19	8	6	5	31	26	+5
7			Paris Saint-Germain	29	19	8	5	6	31	18	+13
8			FC Lorient	29	19	8	5	6	29	22	+7
9			Stade Rennais FC	29	19	8	5	6	24	18	+6
10			Valenciennes FC	28	19	8	4	7	30	26	+4
11			AS Monaco FC	27	18	8	3	7	20	22	-2
12			AS Nancy Lorraine	26	19	8	2	9	26	29	-3
13			RC Lens	26	19	7	5	7	19	24	-5
14			Toulouse FC	25	19	7	4	8	19	16	+3
15			FC Sochaux-Montbéliard	25	17	8	1	8	17	21	-4
16			OGC Nice	22	19	6	4	9	20	32	-12
17			Le Mans UC 72	16	19	4	4	11	17	28	-11
18			AS Saint-Etienne	16	19	4	4	11	11	26	-15
19			Boulogne Côte d'Opale	13	18	3	4	11	15	35	-20
20			Grenoble Foot 38	7	19	1	4	14	10	33	-23

Sous réserve d'homologation par la Commisssion d'Organisation des Compétitions de la LFP

1st Half Thoughts:

What is surprising are the two clubs in the other Champions League spots - LOSC and Montpellier. Okay maybe not a huge surprise that LOSC Lille is contending, especially considering their recent run - scoring 23 goals and conceding only 3 in the last 6 matches (all victories). Which included a 4-3 defeat of Olympique Lyonnaise. Armed with the strongest attack in Ligue 1 - 37 goals for, as well as two of the top 3 goal scorers in Ligue 1 - their Ivorian Gervinho leads with 11 goals to his account. Their defense is not too shabby either, backstopped by the former PSG keeper Landreau and the defender Rami, add to this the defensive midfield play of Mavuba and you have a very balanced and dangerous squad. Can Lille make a run at the title, I think so. They have some nice veterans in Frau, Landreau and Rami as well as some up and coming talent in Gervinho and Hazard. They might still be 1 or 2 veteran players away from challenging Bordeaux, but they will not go away quietly in the second half of the season. Montpellier, on the other hand, is a surprise. It would be hard to fathom the freshly promoted side to do much more than fight for their spot in Ligue 1, but instead they have surprised many sides, including a famous victory against Lyon 2-1. I guess I should not be surprised since they were able to come back and draw against PSG in the opening game of the season after going down to 10 men...they have shown this fighting spirit through out the campaign. They are composed of many players you would need to google to know who they are...but they do have some hidden gems like the French U21 player - Karim Ait Fana. I do not think they have enough star power to stay in the lofty position they are currently holding. However if they get to the Europa League the season will be widely successful.

The other surprise, more negative, is the madding inconsistency from the former Champions - Lyon. Granted it is difficult to imagine a club with the level of turn over they have endured over the past seasons - Essein, MDiarra, Abidal, Malouda, Benzema, Ben Afra, Juninho, Fred, Alou Diarra, Coupet and Squillaci to name a few, it is a challenge to maintain a high degree of success. Granted, Lyon are still only 4 points from second place, so nothing to panic about. However, conceding 5 goals to Marseilles, 4 goals to Lille and 4 to Nice is not the sign of a team ready to take back the title from Bordeaux. I think Lyon remains a work in progress. They do have a future star in Pjanic as well as a solid youth in Cissokho and Gonalons and the French #1 keeper in Lloris, so there are some good pieces to build around. However I think they will need 1 to 2 more seasons before they can aspire the the lofty goals of past. Surprisingly I think they have played very well in the Champions League, leading what was a very difficult group only to lose out on the #1 spot on the last day.

Best Match: Speaking of Lyon, my vote goes to the crazy 5-5 match with Marseilles. Of the 10 goals, maybe the last Marseilles goal was "cheap" otherwise all quality strikes, fantastic runs, great individual efforts...just a crazy and fun game...some highlights:



Best Player: There are some good candidates - Gourcuff is having a solid first half guiding Bordeaux to a strong 1st place and second on his team in goals. Gervinho I already mentioned is leading the entire league with 11 goals and helping put LOSC in second place. But for me the best player, the one that is playing well and is the most important for his side is the already mentioned Pjanic. He only has 3 goals for OL, but his overall creative play clearly is what is driving Lyon, I think without him Lyon would find themselves further down the table. He will become and already is one of the most sought after young players from Ligue 1, while I hope he stays with Lyon for many seasons, I cannot imagine how he will not be heavily pursued by the likes of Chelsea, Milan or Manchester United. Too bad France could not convince him to represent Les Bleus...which they attempted to do after he had played for the Luxembourg youth sides and is now a full cap Bosnia international.

Best Manager: I will have to go with Laurent Blanc. Yes an easy pick, but the way he has managed both domestic ties as well as the Champions League...and add into that the constant speculation of whether or not he will be asked to manage Les Bleus or if he will replace SAF at Manchester United...demonstrates that he is a strong manager with a bright future.

So what about the second half? I think much depends on transfer window...and more for what might be leaving than coming in. If Chamakh heads to the Premiership I think that Bordeaux will have a much more difficult time holding on to their spot. If Blanc can hold on to their roster they will be very difficult to catch. If PSG can get healthy - aka Hourau - they will surprise some in the second half. It will be interesting to see if Lille can keep up their form, I think they will. OM have much to prove, they might need to add some veteran talent in the transfer window to bring some consistency.

Second half should be very interesting, but in the end I think the Winter champion will be the league champ.