Welcome to the "Frog," my little piece of cyberspace to talk about my passion - le foot (or soccer for my North American friends) especially anything around French football. Of course I will have some guest contributors that might want to discuss other aspects of footy!
I support Les Bleus, Arsenal and PSG but really just love watching, analyzing and following the beautiful game.
"You have to trust your teammates, always. If not we are lost."
Lets put aside the 7-1 drubbing that Arsenal handed out this weekend of the ridiculous defense at Chelsea, up 3-0 in the second half!! The intriguing story that I have been meaning to write about - the Special One and his desire to return to England. Actually the Chelsea game might flame the fires of seeing Mourinho coming back to his old stomping grounds - Chelsea.
Together at last??
How did this all start? With the Special One whining about his role at Real Madrid that his players don't listen to him and that he cannot get the best of Barcelona. But is a return to England really that viable? What clubs have the ability to attract the Special One? There need to be a few things in place to even consider reaching out to Mourinho and his gigantic ego: deep transfer kitty, brand name and money to fuel his ego. That basically eliminates all but a handful of teams: Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham are the ones that fit the bill:
Manchester United - SAF isn't going anywhere next season, although this would be the natural fit for Mourinho. After managing Porto, Chelsea, Inter and Real Madrid the Red Devils would be one of the few clubs at the level of Real Madrid. He has expressed interest in succeeding Sir Alex but I do not see that happening right away. Odds - 250:1
Manchester City - the nouveau riche of football, would look very similar to the situation he took on at Chelsea. A club that has been toiling away in the shadow of the bigger club in the city it plays in that has a massive cash infusion and can all of sudden compete. If Mancini fails to win the league, and even if he does win, I could see the Citizens look to add another superstar this time on the touch line. Unlike with Chelsea, I am not sure Manchester City's owners are going to be as meddling down the road, the reason why Jose decided to leave the Blues. Odds - 7:1
Liverpool - Mourinho turned them down once, but what greater challenge than taking over the storied club and win the league! Something that has not happened in ... well forever. Also, the Special One and his ego would LOVE doing something one of his rivals - Benetiz - failed to do, beat Manchester United for the Premiership. However, Liverpool look like a long shot for Champions League football and not sure that Henry et al will make a move to move away from Dalglish just to get Mourinho. Then again, Liverpool might need a Jose to lift them to levels that haven't been enjoyed in a very long time. Odds 10:1
Arsenal - Ugh, now that would be a headline, Mourinho taking over for Wenger. Much like with the Liverpool opportunity, I am sure that somewhere in Mourinho's ego there is a burning desire to take over Arsenal and win what Wenger could not, but Jose has done twice - win the Champions League. Arsenal have the funds to both support Jose's salary and transfer desires, but would they open the purse strings? Unlikely. But what a juicy situation that would be if we say Jose patrolling the Emirates home touch line. Odds 50:1
Tottenham - The Spurs are the darlings of this season, sitting third with some pundits claiming they might actually have a run in them to contend for the title, doubtful. With Harry Redknapp embroiled in a tax evasion trial but more importantly the fact Capello is doing everything he can to get out of managing the Three Lions, there could be a natural landing sport for Harry. Fact of the matter is, Harry has never been shy about wanting to manage at the international level. The main issue is can Tottenham afford the Special One? That is where I think they fall short...well short. Odds 75:1
End of the day I think we see Mourinho make the shock move to take over Liverpool. Assuming the Crypt Keeper John Henry agrees to open the purse strings...Jose will see this as a challenge to take over one of football's most storied clubs, but one that has been left in the dust during in the Premiership era. His giant ego will not be able to turn down the challenge and to stick it to Benetiz by winning a Prem title.
Ah Jose, it would be good to have you back in England!
Interesting story, Liverpool Football Club will be the first footy team wearing the Warrior brand kit. Warrior is known more for their equipment for hockey and lacrosse with a host of goodies from gloves to sticks to shoes. Now they are jumping into the fray of big time footy with one of the biggest fish out there - Liverpool. Long time equipment maker, Adidas, will be left scratching their heads as to where do they go in the Premiership (Liverpool and Chelsea were their two big clubs, paralleling Nike's Manchester United and Arsenal).
This is interesting as Under Armor, another US based sporting company, will be kitting Tottenham next season. Following in the footsteps of Nike, these two US based firms are turning their eyes to the world's most popular sport to expand their top line. Of course Under Armor has some, albeit short, history in soccer having jumped into the boot game a few seasons back. Warrior is no experience in footy, but what a way to make a splash!
It will be interesting to see how Warrior, not steeped in design tradition for footy, will do with the classic red of Liverpool.
Um okay, £50m for Torres...making it the 4th biggest transfer in history. Wow.
BIGGEST WORLD TRANSFERS
1. Cristiano Ronaldo (£80m)
Man Utd-Real Madrid (July 2009)
2. Zlatan Ibrahimovic (£56.5m)
Inter Milan-Barcelona (July 2009)
3. Kaka (£56m)
AC Milan-Real Madrid (June 2009)
4. Fernando Torres (£50m)
Liverpool-Chelsea (Jan 2011)
Not bad for a player that Liverpool spent £20m for - 81 goals over 142 matches while playing for the Reds - a good return. With the acquisition of Suarez and Carroll, for a combined £57.7m, Liverpool is still at a loss during this transfer window. I am also not sure that spending £35m for Carroll was a wise purchase. I realize that the former Newcastle striker earned a recent cap for England and has scored 31 goals over his 81 game career with Newcastle, but is he really worth such a large transfer sum? For another 10m pounds Liverpool could have pried away Aguero from Atletico Madrid...who would you rather have? I would opt for Maradona's son-in-law.The acquisition of Suarez appears like a wiser purchase for Liverpool, while the Uruguayan striker might not be as much of a "star" as Torres, he remains one of the games deadliest strikers - same number of goals as Torres, 81 but in 32 fewer games...that is efficient. Seems like the Liverpool moves were questionable at best...a deeper look at the numbers:
Carroll 0.38 goals per game - £35m
Torres 0.57 goals per game - £50m
Aguero 0.38 goals per game - NA
Suarez 0.73 goals per game - £22.7m
Looks like Liverpool made a smart purchase on Suarez and very questionable with Carroll. I am not sure the Reds needed another striker after acquiring Suarez.
Not overpaid -
Could they have been better served getting another midfielder to help shoulder the creative midfield load from Gerrard? Maybe another play making midfielder such as Honda. Rumor is CSKA was willing to shop him this transfer season. Or a defensive minded midfielder, something that Liverpool has been severely lacking since Mascherano and Alonso both left - I am sure that Rennes would have been willing to part with their starlet M'Vila, which was rumored to be in the works - and for far less much money (£15m +). This would have been a better move for Liverpool than acquiring two strikers, one of which was way overpaid for!
Coming to Stanford Bridge
What about the move from the Chelsea side? £50m for Torres was a lot of money to spend for the Spanish striker. Granted, when it comes to Chelsea there is no such thing as a "budget" or financial constraints. Taking the amount of money spent aside, add to this the £25.5m spent on defender Luiz from Benefica and the "old" drunken sailor Chelsea is back, however from a football stand point I think the moves were wise. Chelsea are an old team, the addition of two high level players who are 23 and 26 years old (Torres being the older of the two), will add some much need youth to a team desperate to infuse their talent base with younger talent. I think that Torres' time at Liverpool had run its course - I think the Spaniard's form dipped when his countryman (Rafa) was ousted as manager. The change of scenery will benefit Torres as well as being part of a solid strike force of Drogba, Anelka and Kalou. As well as having the likes of Lampard and Malouda feeding him up front. The addition of the young Brazilian center back, Luiz, will infuse some youth in an aging central defensive pairing of Terry and Alex. These moves might thrust Chelsea back into the title race, especially since Arsenal and Manchester United did not do much during the transfer window.
Finally, not surprising that Wenger and Arsenal basically did nothing...other than loaning out a disappointing Vela. No center back, no keeper, no striker....oh well.
The transfer window closes, with some moving parts in the EPL it will be interesting to see how this impacts the race. Chelsea clearly realizes it had to do something but will it prove to be too little tool late? Liverpool splashed some serious cash, but not sure their purchases were 100% wise...Carroll...seriously? The other contenders - Tottenham (rebuffed in their advances for the aforementioned Aguero), Arsenal and Manchester United stayed pat.
Of course cannot overlook Manchester City who splashed out £27m for Dzeko - who has a 0.59 goals per game yet comes in cheaper than Carroll!!!! Just makes you wonder what Liverpool is thinking!
The war of words continues as Rafa Benitez slings more incomprehensible jabs about the man that took over for him at Liverpool - Roy Hodgson. Granted the new Liverpool gaffer has found himself under a certain degree of pressure as the storied club only recently fought itself out of the relegation zone. Hodgson clearly inherited a club laden with failed signings from the Benitez era. Of course Rafa babbles about how he only spent a net 10m pounds and left with 17 internationals on the rosters...but how many new trophies did he add to the Liverpool trophy case with (take away the Champions League miracle)?
Note to Rafa, success at clubs such as Liverpool are measured in the silverware added to the trophy case...not the amount of internationals you have on your roster. What Rafa fails to realize, or admit, is that his tenure at Liverpool was flawed and in reality a failure. During his time he watched hated rival Manchester United equal the Reds in terms of overall league titles, yes he did win a Champions League trophy, but that was due to 15 minutes of insanity versus Milan. He did get a second place finish...but that and $4.00 gets you a latte at Starbucks. Rafa does have a tough task at Inter - following in the footsteps of the Special One and the Inter treble of last season - he has Inter within 4 points of the leader Lazio. Inter is also sits atop Group A in the Champions League and if they win at White Hart Lane, will qualify for the knock out stage. Of course nothing matters unless Inter makes a deep run in the knock out stage.
Meanwhile I am sure Rafa will continue to throw stones at Hodgson, Gillett and Hicks - somehow making everyone but him the reason why he did not succeed at Liverpool. We heard this the past two seasons when he was managing the Reds so why should anything change from the Spaniard???
After watching, and enjoying some schandenfreude, the Liverpool saga, I can only look to the Reds' historical rival - Manchester United - as a potential for a similar fall from grace. The Liverpool saga boils down to simple greed - Hicks and Gillett thought they could make a quick buck off a historical sports franchise. They purchased the club through heavy leverage and when the economy tanked and they could not service the debt they had to sell. They did not purchase the club because they were life long fans of the Reds or of football...now who knows what John Henry and his NESV group will do with Liverpool, but if what they have done with the Red Sox is any indication, they understand that the product on the pitch is what makes the value of the asset rise, not playing some financial shell games to make a buck. So how does this relate to Manchester United?
Happier days for SAF and Rooney
The Red Devils are in a very similar situation. They were purchased by the Glazers, another North American based ownership that acquired the asset not because of love of the game or the history of Manchester United, but because they identified what they thought was a good asset they could acquire...again via debt, and then leverage to line their own pockets but also keep the value high enough that when the need arose could be sold at a reasonable price - see profit. This financial structure has started to take its toll on the club. The sales of Ronaldo and Tevez over the past 2 seasons were the first signs that the financial burden the Glazer's have placed on the club were starting to take their tolls on the club. The latest from the Rooney saga only reinforces this brutal financial reality. Why did Rooney not resign with Manchester United? Because he wants a big pay bump? Maybe. Because he wants out of Manchester United to escape the spotlights of the English tabloids? Um no where on this planet can get you away from that light...the reality it I think he has seen his mates like Ronaldo and Tevez leave with no one coming back in return. Rooney might need some lessons in maturity off the pitch, but his competitive desire and motivation to win on it cannot be questioned. Clearly he doubts the club's ability to compete in the transfer market and by extension on the pitch....so why should he look to stay?
Bottom line - the debt and business aspects of the club have started to catch up with Manchester United. Whether or not SAF or the Glazers want to admit it, the club no longer can look to go out and acquire top talent. Couple this with their city neighbors and their new bottomless pit of money as well as the Russian billions that are still in Stamford Bridge and one could envisage a similar situation that struck Liverpool happening at Old Trafford. Could SAF be close behind to Rooney?
So dumb and dumber, aka Gillett and Hicks, have supposedly turned down two offers for the club and are also trying to purge the board...apparently to give the two idiotic owners more control. What is going on with Liverpool? Mounting debts, trying to determine a new ground to play on...maybe with hated local rival Everton and on top of this they are in the relegation zone!!! Clearly the current owners have been trying to unload this asset for at least a year while piling up a large amount of debt. This might be the best course of action for Liverpool, clearly if the club can find an owner that will bring the financial heft to clear the books of debt, or at least bring it under control and add some stability at the ownership level that is only the way Hodgson and the club can climb their way out of the relegation zone.
I cannot hide my feeling of schadenfreude when it comes to the down fall of the Reds. I am sure there are plenty of others that feel the same...maybe even the current Inter manager.
We had Ligue 1 kick off, I provided Frog's predictions a few posts ago, clearly Goal.com read that post since we have similar predictions for the final standings! Couple this with the Community Shield - the first match to announce the start of the EPL season, I figured I would lean on my predictive powers to provide some thoughts on how the EPL will finish this season. By the way, Chelsea won both the FA Cup and EPL title, so why is it Manchester United in the Community Cup? Shouldn't Portsmouth have some claim to the match as well?? They did finish runners up in the FA Cup final...just saying...anyways on to the predictions.
5th Place:Liverpool Football Club: So the Benetiz-less Reds will scrap and fight their way back to knocking on the top 4. The loss of Mascherano will be a difficult hole to fill in the midfield. Granted Hodgson is looking to sign Juventus midfielder Poulsen to slot in that holding spot. However make no mistake, the Argentine was a tough tackling midfielder that gave that team much of its metal in the midfield and provided much needed cover to the back 4. However I think with Hodgson in place, the team will have a better defensive discipline and game. Similar to what we saw from the English manager last season with Fulham, expect him to get the most out what he has on his roster. Unlike his predecessor, I have faith that Hodgson will squeeze the most value out of this roster. The biggest questions will revolve around Torres and his health. The fact he decided to stay with the Reds is clearly a huge plus. Add Joe Cole and I think you will have a revitalized strike force. Maybe Hodgson will be able to do with Kuyt what he did in London with Zamora. Don't laugh, but the Dutch player might fit that mold. A player that can hold the ball allow the Coles and Torres and Gerrards to get into position offensively. Whether or not Hodgson will get the most out of the likes of Babel and Aquilani - some players that have failed to live up to expectations will determine how far Liverpool can go. I think that the Reds finally have a manager that can manage over a championship season and not just for a knock out tournament. Look for the Reds to get back into the picture for potential Champions League.
4th Place: Manchester United FC: What...the Red Devils....4th place!!! Sir Alex Ferguson not in the top 2!!!!! That's right, you read it here first. Manchester United is due for a fall from grace, still get Champions League football but just barely. Why? Simple - Manchester United's age, injuries and heavy work load will final catch up to them. In addition the lack of big name signing over the past 2 seasons will be difficult to overcome. The last time Manchester United won the title it was on the backs of Tevez, Ronaldo and Rooney and their scoring talents that carried the team. Hmmmm, Tevez and Ronaldo gone and that scoring gap is now up to Owen and Berbatov to make up. Mind you this is not Owen from 1998 or Berbatov from his Tottenham days, both strikers' better days are clearly behind them...add to this a Rooney that has clearly shown wear and tear of too many games and being brought back too quickly from his ankle injury (and a number of other knocks) last season. This team played back to back Champions League finals then made it to the 1/4 finals last season over the past 3 years, add to this the amount of international football players such as Evra, Rooney, Ferdinand have in their boots as well. Oh yeah, Ferdinand is clearly succumbing to the injury bug as well, not a good sign. Also how much more can SAF get out of Giggs, Scholes and Neville? Last I checked these three AARP players still seem to play important roles for SAF, especially Neville at right back...frightening. Not sure what to expect from Nani and Anderson...both were suppose to be the next generation to relief Giggs et al. There is some youth - Macheda, Fabio, Rafael and Cleverly (nice goal from the youngster below) - however not sure if they are ready to really take on a greater responsibility.
Add all this together and I think we are going to see a Red Devil team that takes a serious drop in form. They have not made a big signing, that has worked out, in a few seasons. They are older, the names they signed to replace the likes of Ronaldo and Tevez have not lived up to their billing, Van Der Saar has a lot of wear on those tires, the youth is too immature and this team has played a lot of football over the past 3-4 years. They will go backwards this season.
3rd Place: Manchester City FC: Whooohooo, yup the Frog thinks the Citizens will take a major step up the standings. I think they might have been here last season had they not wasted the first half of the season with Mark Hughes at the helm. I think the Citizens under Hughes dropped at least 15 points due to drawing games rather than winning. Turn that around and you have a team that team gets Champions League football this season. With Mancini in place for the start of the season, I doubt the Citizens will be dropping silly points. Of course with the deep pockets of the Abu Dhabi United Group, ManCity has gone on another shopping spree adding the likes of Yaya Toure, David Silva, Jerome Boateng and Aleksander Kolarov to the likes of Adebayor, Tevez, Vieira and Barry to name some of the players added to the roster last season. They have 2 solid keepers - Given and Hart. Their defense should be good and offensively will be carried again by Tevez. If Mancini can convince Robinho to come back and play, I think that will only add to what could be a strong offense. Even if the Brazilian stays at Santos, Manchester City have many other offensive options. The other question is can Stephen Ireland be motivated and convinced to give it his all for the Citizens? If he does leave for Milner than that would be a net positive for Manchester City. Add to this the potential for the Inter strikerBallotelli coming to play at the City of Manchester Stadium and look out! The question still remains if the Italian manager can motivate and manage this assembly of high paid hired guns for an entire season. My bet is yes, well enough to get into the top 3.
2nd Place: Chelsea Football Club: The defending champions will not defend their title. But it will be a good battle between themselves and their rest of the league. I think Chelsea falls into the same dilemma as does Manchester United...which big players have they signed the past 2 seasons? They lost Ballack and Joe Cole. Signed Yossi Benayoun to wear the #10 shirt...um okay. Ashley Cole might be on his way out to Real Madrid. Essien is back, but is he 100% healthy? Rumors swirl around Drogba leaving to Marseilles....unlikely but still. Anelka? Who knows what to expect after the summer debacle. Carvalho and Terry are not getting any younger, and both started showing signs of decline last season. What about Lampard? Not sure he is not also on the back 9 of his career. Can some of the youth step up such as a Kakuta who was the star for the U19 European Champions - France. Without Joe Cole we might see the young French striker get more time with the first team. Of course much of these issues could be resolved if Abramovich opens his deep wallet and goes out and acquires an Aguero or even goes after Torres. Problem for me is this side has made their runs with the same core for a few seasons - Terry, Drogba, Lampard, Essien, Cech - they have not done enough to refresh some of these pillars. They had enough to make it work last season for the double, but is this a season too far for the core? I think so.
1st Place: Arsenal F.C.: So that leaves us with....the Gunners! Okay okay I might be called a homer since I am a Gunner fan. However here is my reasoning: the Arsenal team has the talent on the rise and talent that has not been as beat up as their other contenders over the past 2-3 years. Let us play a quick game - Nasri, Chamakh, Vermaelen, Koscielny, Rosicky, Arshavin, Walcott - what do they have in common? No World Cup. Add to this Cesc, did not log a ton of minutes, Bendtner same and Van Persie yes played a lot for Holland...but he barely played last season so overall he has not logged a huge number of minutes over the past few seasons. Sagna, Clichy and Diaby...well we know they only played 3 games in South Africa and skipped a practice so they are fresh! I think that the 3 headed striker monster of Chamakh, Bendtner and Van Persie will play very well in front of a midfield of Diaby, Cesc, Walcott, Rosicky,
Arshavin, Nasri etc (I realize that Walcott and Arshavin can be seen as strikers but I consider then hybrid midfield wide players and strikers/wingers). The duo of Vermaelen - Koscielny look very strong, and the addition via subtraction aka letting Gallas walk will be a big boost for the team especially in the dressing room. I also think Wilshere is poised for a solid season (so does Capello as he gave the young Gunner his first call up for the England v Hungary friendly). Of course, Wenger will need to make a few more moves prior to the end of the transfer window - get a keeper, fellow podcaster Sam the Gooner made it very clear "If Wenger does not sign a keeper by the end of the transfer window he should be fired on the spot." and second I think Wenger needs to find another central defender. The Gunners always have the talent. I think the core that Wenger has been grooming is ready to make the big move to winning the EPL. Part of that is also the fact time is ticking...on Cesc. Clearly he appears to have one of his Nike boots in Barcelona, so the Gunners better get the most of out of their captain this season. Wenger sign a keeper...even Schwarzer would be a huge step in the right direction of course Eduardo would be better! Over the weekend the rumors of a daring swoop for World Cup champion and Liverpool #1, Riena has picked up some steam, but that might just be that...a rumor. I see Chelsea and Manchester United slipping due to age and too much wear and tear...while Arsenal are ready to hit their stride and have plenty in the tank. Wenger gets back on top!!!
So the Gunners win silverware for the first time since they had Pat Vieira roaming the midfield. Tottenham will be a one and done when it comes to the Champions League, I just did not see the North London club bringing in any talent this transfer season and that will hurt their chances to stay ahead of Liverpool or Manchester City.
Player of the Year: Cesc. The Arsenal captain will mark his last season in the EPL with a player of the year title and lead his club to the domestic title...and then will scamper off to Barcelona.
Manager of the Year: Hodgson. The former Fulham manager will take Liverpool and make the most out of a roster Rafa could never do enough with because he had no "money."
Cannot believe the season is starting, I am looking forward to watching the Gunners get back to the top!
Just over a week left until we start the World Cup adventure in South Africa, but the world and business of football does not stop. The latest, not a surprise, is that Rafa might be on his way out at Liverpool...finally. If the rumors are to be believed, the powers that be in Anfield are looking to offer Rafa a 3m pound pay out to leave the club "immediately." With an opening at Inter Milan, possible move to Juventus or maybe something at Manchester City, there seems to be some green fields for Rafa to go and mess up another club team with his brilliant player purchasing. This might also be a signal that the genius owners - Hicks and Gillett - are looking to clean house before selling to a new owner that might want to put in their own manager. It could also mean that the two owners want to get Rafa out of town so that they no longer have to listen to his belly aching about money and do not have to spend any more capital to watch their team not qualify for the Champions League. This move might also make it easier for the two owners to sell of Torres and Gerrard to help the books - and make the club look more fiscally viable, potentially easier to sell - and to get them more of a profit than they could currently hope for.
The soap opera in Anfield continues...and only makes me chuckle.
Chelsea secure the full 3 points with a relative easy win at Anfield over Liverpool while Manchester United kept pace with a 1-0 victory over Sunderland. With one game left Chelsea hold a slim 1 point lead over the Red Devils with one game to go, both matches should be sitters: Chelsea host Wigan and Manchester United host Stoke. Both sides are safe from the drop zone so will not be playing for the Premiership lives. Baring a major upset, Chelsea should be winning the Premiership crown next week in London.
The one side story, with the loss, Liverpool is assured that they will not have Champions League football next season. And with that miss out on the cash associated with the competition. This will be telling this off season since Liverpool has amassed some huge debts and is struggling to ensure they can service this debt. With Rafa already turning his eyes to Italy and the Old Lady this might mark the beginning of a dark time for Liverpool. They are further away from a Premiership title then when Rafa took over the club. However I am sure the Spaniard will have some spin on his way out of Anfield that he was never given the budget or the resources to succeed.
Sigh, poor Rafa, he is the poor man of England without sufficient funds at Liverpool. Someone please get me a tissue so I can wipe my tears away. Clearly the Spaniard is setting up his exit this summer whether he leaves on his own or gets canned. Maybe Rafa needs to do some self reflecting before he starts whining about his "lack of funds." Granted
Hicks and Gillett have done a mockery of owning this side, gambling on being able to secure a new stadium, leveraging the club to repay their debts and overall underestimating the blind loyalty of the fan base. Unlike owning the Texas Rangers or the Dallas Stars, owning a club like Liverpool carries a very steep history that is ingrained in the fan base - a fan base that is much more sensitive to every action you take and is less forgiving if it perceives your actions to be focused on lining your own pockets with cash rather than winning silverware.
But Rafa, once again, cannot hide behind these two bumbling owners for he is also to blame. Ryan Babel for 11m pounds? Robbie Keane? Aquilani? Kuyt? Not having sufficient strikers last season. Relying entirely on Gerrard and Torres for all your scoring. The list goes on. As I have stated before, were it not for 15 crazy minutes in the Champions League finals, Rafa would have been shown the door years ago. I will not shed a tear that Liverpool has wasted away seasons under the Spanish "genius" but the Reds' fans deserve a gaffer that can give them a better chance rather than spending his time whining about no funds and any other excuse he can muster to cover his poor performances.
Another upset from a French side against one of Europe's heavyweights - as Lille scratch out a 1-0 victory versus the Reds from Liverpool. Now they still have to go to Anfield and find a way to protect this slim lead, however as Lyon demonstrated, the advantage of being an underdog heading away for the second leg all you need is to get a draw and you go through. Lille should also be bolstered by the fact Liverpool have apparently completely imploded - they lost to Wigan in the league and now drop the first leg to Lille. With Torres and Gerrard picking up silly cards the past few games due to acting up versus the referees - clearly there are some issues within the Anfield camp.
The seat under Rafa is getting warmer and warmer by the day.
I am remiss in commenting on my friend Rafa and his band of merry men and their stunning game this week. A 1-0 loss to Wigan drops the Reds further down the table and farther away from Champions League football next season. Then again I am sure the Spaniard wouldn't care since he will most likely be in Torino managing the "Old Lady." Of course now Rafa is lashing out at his players, maybe it is because they have tuned him out and his litany of excuses. I have no love lost for the man, I think he is a very overrated manager, great for knock out competitions but cannot manage a club for the long haul, makes terrible decisions in the transfer market and overall does not seem to get how to run a club. I do have a chuckle that he is doing this with a storied franchise such as Liverpool but I am also shocked he has been allowed to do so for so long.
With Liverpool further away from Champions League football and money, I wonder if we will see a small fire sale this summer since the ownership is also under financial pressure...that would be interesting. Maybe Mascherano and Torres can find their ways to the Emirates!
Rafa's boys once again disappoint by dropping 2 points to Wolves with a 0-0 draw (those are the Wolves that find themselves just above the drop zone). Granted the draw moves Liverpool closer to the top 4 -
However look at the games played - the 3 closest teams chasing Liverpool have 2 games in hand versus the Reds. Dropping points to the 17th place team is not what makes a champion either. Clearly Liverpool continues to tread water. I still do not think getting rid of Rafa right now makes sense, this can only be seen as a lost season for the Reds. So let Rafa manage to the end of the season then allow the new gaffer a full off season to prepare for the next campaign. Then again Rafa might escape to northern Italy if the rumors are to be believed. Which I think would be a poor choice for Juventus, granted they had their manager when Deschamps was there and got them back into Serie A, too bad they could not agree on how to keep him at his former club.
So Rafa and his band of merry-men from Liverpool slide further away from the top of the league table, now 14 points behind league leaders Chelsea and 4 points out of a top 4 spot, after a 1-1 draw against powerhouse Stoke City. Add to the situation the midweek loss to Championship side Reading in the FA Cup and Liverpool having to play in the Europa League having crashed out of the Champions League. Of course Rafa had a classic post game interview blaming everything but himself for the situation Liverpool finds itself in...
The rumors are swirling that the Hicks and Gillett are seriously thinking about sacking their gaffer, not that the two owners do much chatting these days. Now with others such as Souness calling for the Spaniard to stand down on his own, can the ax be far away? I have never made any secret about my dislike for Rafa, I think that he is overrated as a domestic league manager - knock out tournaments are another story. I also think his time at Anfield needs to draw to a close. Liverpool has not won a domestic title in what seems like a lifetime (20 years to be exact)!! That is unacceptable for a side such as the Reds. However I do no think he should be sacked immediately. First, the transfer window has been very quiet and I am not sure a new manager will have the time or money to greatly change the side. Second a new manager will not be able to change the fundamental problem with Liverpool - over reliance on Gerrard and Torres. Third, Liverpool might be able to make a run for the Champions League spot next year...which in a strange way would be perfect for Rafa - he can manage in a knock out tournament manner - not worrying about player development nor multiple cups - Liverpool is out of the FA Cup, Carling Cup and Champions League. Finally, why not wait until the summer and even after the World Cup where you think there will be a deluge of managers on the market. Allow the new gaffer a full transfer period to reshape his club.
I am sure the names of Hiddink and Blanc will be tossed around, but what about "The Special One?" Hmmmm, Mourinho has never made any secret about his desire to return to England. Rumors are swirling that he would return to replace SAF at Manchester United. But why would Mourinho seek that challenge? To replace a legend...short of going undefeated for a season or winning the Champions League without giving up goal, what can the Special One do at Manchester United that SAF has not already done. However, if he goes to Liverpool...he can be the manager that finally gets the Reds a Premiership title. He can be the one that finally brings Liverpool back to the level the fans so desire. I think it is a perfect fit. Mourinho's ego is large enough to want such a challenge. He would get a chance to face off against Wenger, SAF and the rest. He would get a chance to take on his old employer at Chelsea. Finally he would get a chance to cement his legacy if he can find a way to steer Liverpool back to the top of the Premiership mountain.
Ah poor Liverpool...Rafa seems to be teetering on the edge. No surprise to this blogger. The Spaniard has constantly "underperformed" at the helm of Liverpool. As one of the "Big 4" one would expect more from the Reds. The other members of this elite group have won a Premiership title...Liverpool has not won a league title since 1990, in the mean time hated rival Manchester United has caught up with the Reds at 18 domestic titles (Manchester United has 11 premier titles compared to Liverpool's 0). Couple this with Liverpool crashing out of the Champions League after being seen as an easy favorite to get through their group...oops. Once again I would call Rafa's ability into question. He has built a team that relies on 2 players - Torres and Gerrard. He has spent money like a drunken sailor and has very little to show for it - example - purchase Robbie Keane only to resell him 5 months later at a loss. He went out and spent big on players like Babel ... but where to play him? His side needs strikers yet he lets Voronin out on loan. I have never questioned his ability to manage in a knock out competition, he is a master mind when it comes to prepare his side for a 1 or 2 game match. When it comes to the other aspects of managing a football team, he is lacking.
Liverpool now sits 13 points behind Chelsea out of the Champions League and in general reeling. I would not be surprised if Rafa were not let go by Christmas. Allow another manager to take over the club and leverage the winter transfer window to try and redeem something from this season and prepare for 2010. Rafa will have no one to blame but himself. The Champions League title won in Istanbul gave Rafa an increased runway, which he has wasted. He has not demonstrated a shrewd eye on the transfer market, he has not been able to demonstrate a good sense of how to manage during the long slog of a domestic championship and overall has been given the keys to a high performing car and ruined the gear box, damaged the brake pads and turned it into a lemon.
I have never been a fan of the Spaniard...partial because I felt Houllier was not given a fair shot after having a medical emergency stall his ability to manage his team. He was able to turn around the Red, bring them silverware and apparently was moving the squad in a good direction. Rafa came in on a white horse with a lot of hype...and to me has failed to impress...albeit for a crazy 15 minutes in Turkey...
I did not watch the entire match but I cannot help myself to chuckle at Rafa and Liverpool. Starting, arguably, their most challenging week Rafa and his men fell 1-0 to a beach ball...see below:
This drops Liverpool to 7 points behind league leaders Manchester United, who they have to face this upcoming weekend. Dropping points to Sunderland is not a way to challenge for silverware Rafa. Once again I call into question the Spaniards ability to manage a team for an entire season. There is no doubt he is a solid game to game manager in a knock out competition, but when it comes to managing for a league title, I question his talents especially on player movements. Granted Torres and Gerrard were out yesterday, but every team needs to deal with adversity of losing players. But I am not sure that even if they were on the pitch yesterday if they would have been able to defend against Bent who absolutely torched the Liverpool defense, and could have had a brace or hat trick had he been a little bit more clinical in his final touch.
Again, Rafa will live on the glory of 15 crazy minutes in Istanbul, without that improbable run he might have been looking for work a few years ago.
After dropping two games from the first 3 fixtures, it appears the sharks are circling Rafa. I do have to chuckle a little...first at the fact the heat is actually on him after playing 3 games!! This is a very long season, granted dropping points early is never a good thing, but to call Liverpool out of contention before the end of August is ridiculous. Of course this could not happen to a better manager, as I have stated over and over again, were it not for the 15 minutes of craziness during the Champions League Finals against ACMilan...Rafa would have been sacked a long time ago. I do not question his ability to strategize and execute tactics during a game, for that he is one of the best, I do question his ability to manage a team over a season and understand who to buy and sell. Best example for me last season when he brought in Keane let Voronin go out on a loan...then sells Keane back to Spurs in the winter and realizes he is a few strikers short....hmmmmm smart. Maybe Rafa could have used the 11 goals Voronin tallied last season....
It appears that the summer vacation and time off for the footie teams is shorter and shorter...I guess all the better for us soccer starved fans! To many out there, the true soccer season starts tomorrow with the beginning of the English Premier League (btw I like the old badge up top)...the other big leagues, Italy and Spain, start later in the summer.
So the first question, will the "big 4" remain the same? Answer...and I have been thinking about this all summer...will be yes. Second question, will all the big spending at Manchester City mean they will threaten for the title. Answer...no. Third question, will Everton or Aston Villa threaten the top 4. Answer...maybe. And finally, will Benetiz and SAF continue their war of words. Answer...ABSOLUTELY! Ok let us look at the the top 5 and some other observations before the season opener tomorrow.
#5 Aston Villa. The Villians threatened to oust Arsenal last season from the top 4 late into the year, only to lose their steam. Probably the most English of all teams they are managed by one of the Premierships best managers in Martin ONeil. The loss of Barry will be difficult to overcome, but with the likes of Agbonlahor, Carew, Freidel, Sidwell, Young etc they have enough talent to maintain aspirations of being in the top 5. I also think that Heskey will prove important in this campaign, while not the striker some thought he might become, if he can chip in double digit goals and bring some veteran leadership to the side they will perform well enough to knock on the door of the big 4.
#4 Liverpool. Ok I have never made it a secret that I think Benetiz is an overrated blowhard. And had the Reds not had 15 minutes of craziness in Athens to win the Champions League, the Spaniard would be back in his home land looking for work. I think losing Garcia will be more difficult to over come than Benetiz thinks. I realize that Benetiz brought in Aquilani from Italy to replace Garcia, but not sure how he will acclimate himself to England. I think that he still has not addressed the goal scoring issue, can Torres and Gerrard still be expected to score the bulk of the goals for the Reds? If Mascherano ends up leaving as the rumors claim, then the Reds will be in real trouble.
#3 Manchester United. Whoooaaaaa you might say, the Red Devils, winners of 3 straight titles...fall to 3rd???? Um yes. Why? You cannot lose arguably the best player in the world in Ronaldo as well as one of the games top 10 strikers and expect to win a 4th straight title. Van de Sar is out for the first part of the season. Hargreaves, yes remember him, appears closer to being forced into retirement. Giggs and Scholes are one year older. Owen? Just because you gave him the #7 shirt does not mean he is the next Best, Cantona, Beckham or Ronaldo. Michael Owen has not been the same for a very long time. Not sure if the change of scenery will make him the young prodigy we saw score one of the greatest goals in the 1998 World Cup. I think that Manchester United are in a transition season and they will drop in the table.
#2 Arsenal. I have given the Gunners a lot of thought recently. For a while I thought they would be out of the top 4...and then I will admit I read Bobby's blog on Fox Soccer and it changed my mind. Now I am not ready to crown the Gunners league winners but I think they will improve on last season and that clubs like Liverpool and Manchester United will drop. A full season of Arshavin a healthy Eduardo the lack of headache from Adebayour are the keys. Of course this ranking will change if Cesc leaves for Barca. Also, Wenger still needs to bring in some defensive and midfield help before the end of the month. In addition, Rosicky needs to come back close to 100%, Nasri needs to come back, Diaby needs to find some health potion...again a lot of other ifs, but no reason to believe most cannot come to fruition. #1 Chelsea. Not much suspense here...but the Blues have the talent, manager, and deep pockets to regain the title. They were able to keep Terry and Drogba during the off season. Malouda looks like the Malouda from Lyon. Anelka could have a new contract to make him happy. Finally Ancelotti should bring some stability to the management role. Oh and let us not forget Shevchenko is back from ACMilan. I have a feeling the Ukrainian striker will have a nice season for the Blues. He will give some good depth up front and be a solid substitute during the season. Of course if there are any needs during the winter transfer window, we all know that Abramovich will not hesitate to splash out the cash. The Blues are too deep and talented not to regain the title this season. The one question mark is in goal, if Cech plays the way we know he can then no worries....if he plays the way he did for part of last season, they could be in trouble.
Other teams to watch -
Manchester City - How can you not keep a keen eye to the other team in Manchester. After dropping A LOT of cash this transfer season, they have, on paper, the talent to challenge anyone. However I question if there was any strategy behind the acquisitions or just...buy who you can to make us look like a contender spending. Adebayour...ok. But how will he fit with Santa Cruz and Tevez? Who will defend? Is Toure the Toure of old or the one we saw the past few months for Arsenal? The Citizens should still do better than last season, I think that Ireland will be shown as one of the best playmakers with the offensive additions he will be able to leverage.
Everton - David Moyes always has his team ready to play. Fellaini, Arteta, Cahill and a rejuvenated Saha are a solid foundation for the club. They will once again be one of the best teams in the second tier of the Premiership
Cannot believe the season starts tomorrow, I do not see anyone breaking into the top 4, but I do think that clubs like Liverpool and Manchester United will come back to the pack which should make for an interesting Premiership season.
Ouch, losing over 40m pounds....that cannot be good for business. So Rafa, who always complains of not having funds to acquire players must have had money, or were Hicks and Gillett just buying lots of fish and chips? What I love about this story is a team who has a manager who always cries poor yet the business side is hemorrhaging money. This might put Liverpool in a very difficult situation, will they have to sell some of their stars? Will the new stadium be put on indefinite hold? Then again I really have no sympathy for Liverpool, the owners leveraged themselves to purchase the club, what was basically an move to boost their massive egos. Neither man really had any sense of the business of footie, and let's face it, Hicks has questionable acumen when it comes to the business of sports (anyone see how the Texas Rangers are run?).
This massive business loss is just another example of clubs that are run by owners who only see the team as a play thing rather than a business (look at Chelsea's books...they constantly operate at financial losses). I would not be surprised if this time next year we are talking about Manchester City operating at huge losses as well....oh well. I guess if you have the money to burn, good for you.
I wonder if Rafa is already teeing up his whining machine - "I have no funds..."
Yes the next leg of Champions League footie is upon us, so some quick predictions:
Bayern Munich v Sporting (agg 5-0) - Um not sure anyone has come back from a 5 goal deficit...so the easy prediction. Bayern through to the next round.
Juventus v Chelsea (agg 0-1) - This is a tasty tie, heading back to Italy with the Old Lady needing to come out and find a way to over come that goal down. The intrigue for me is how Trezegol will have an impact on the game. However I think that Chelsea is starting to click, and Drogba is becoming the beast he once was. It is also clear that having Hiddink in the bench has some how calmed the egos on the Blues. Chelsea goes through after a 1-1 draw.
Liverpool v Real Madrid (agg 1-0) - Oh now this is an interesting match up, my good friend Benitez is already whining about being "picked" on by the press, that he has a good track record in the Champions League...just disregard the futility in England. Liverpool has the huge away goal and are going to force Real to come to Anfield. Face the following.
If one thing Benitez has shown is an uncanny ability to manage for one game matches. I think he got exactly what he wanted from his trip to Madrid and will now build his line up to sit deep and absorb the Real attacks and look to counter via Torres (assuming El Nino passes his match day fitness test). I just do not see the Real player that will be able to solve the Reds. Liverpool head on with a boring 0-0 draw.
Panathinaikos v Villarreal (agg 1-1) - The Greek side has a good chance, heading back home with a precious away goal. Their manager Ten Cate is well experienced in European football so knows how to manage his squad and with veterans like Gilberto I can see the Greek side coming out of this tie. Granted Villareal cannot be underestimated, with Rossi, Senna and Pires they have the necessary veterans to overturn the tie in a hostile environment. However, I think Panathinaikos is this years Fenebache - the Greek side goes through with a 2-1 victory (3-2 agg).
It does pain me to predict Liverpool goes through...oh well.
