The 2nd place draw is out!! France to meet Ireland....tough draw

So FIFA made the draw today and the match ups are set. I will admit my greatest fear came true, Les Bleus will have to face the Irish in the match up...no not the team in South Bend Indiana...so let us first look at the pairings for the final 4 spots for South Africa:

Portugal v Bosnia: Most likely the most lopsided draw. Even if Portugal are without Ronaldo they should find a way to beat the upstarts from the Balkans. Although Bosnia can put up quit a fight for the spot. They kept Belgium and Turkey out of the running in their group, and were it not for being drawn with European Cup Champion Spain, they could have secured a direct qualification for the World Cup. The key will be how the young Pjanic plays in the midfield. Can he control the flow of the game? The young Bosnian is quietly becoming the midfield cog for Lyon and is one of Europe's up and coming stars. This is just the type of matches that a young star can announce himself to the world. And will the Bosnia strikers find success against the Portugese? They have some quality strikers that play in the Bundesliga so are no slouches when it comes to high pressure matches, players such as Misimovic, Dzeko and Ibisevic. Portugal will lean on Deco to carry the rhythm of the game (assuming Ronaldo is out) to the Bosnians. While the Bosnians have nothing to lose, I think there is too much talent on the Portuguese side with Deco, Nani, Simao, Gomes, Tiago, Carvalho and Boswinga to name a few. It will not be easy but Portugal will go through. Portugal through 3-1 on aggregate.

Greece v Ukraine: This is an intriguing match up. Greece was in a weak group 2 where they finished 1 point back of leaders Switzerland. The former European Champs struggled, losing twice to Switzerland, losing to Moldova and only defeating Luxembourg 2-1. However the Greeks still play a difficult style, defending with 11 and looking to strike on the counter. While Ukraine is heading into this match up on a high, coming from behind in their group to take the runner spot from Croatia, including an improbable 1-0 Ukrainian victory over the 3 lions. They still have a deadly Sheva and can surprise. I can see this match up heading to PKs - Ukraine goes through 1-1 on aggregate 7-6 in PKs.

Russia v Slovenia: The Russians almost took the top spot from Germany, well maybe not almost but they had a serious chance to do so going into the match up against their old time rival in Moscow. However once again Germany did what it always seems to do...get a 1-0 win when it needed it. So now the Russians face a surprise team in Slovenia. They first surprised in the Euro 2000 when they qualified by defeating Ukraine to get into the tournament, where they showed well for themselves only losing to Spain 2-1 in the group stage. However they are playing a team in Russia who were the surprise last Euro and in a player Arshavin who can turn a game on its head. I just do not see Slovenia finding an answer to the diminutive Arsenal winger nor strikers such as Pavlyuchenko. Add into this mix Hiddink, a veteran manager who has 1 month to prepare for Slovenia, and I see it as the easiest qualification of the play off pairings. Russia through 5-0 on aggregate.

France v Ireland: Ok...the best for last...I guess. Ugh. This is not the match up I was looking for for Les Bleus. Ireland were the "1 point" team, getting only 4 wins for 6 draws during the qualifiers. A hard luck draw against the World Cup Champs in Dublin on a last minute goal. Least we forget the struggles France had against Ireland in the qualifiers for the 2006 world cup! A sheer act of brilliance gave Les Bleus a 1-0 victory in Dublin...



So what do we have in store this time? Ireland have some solid players - Dunn, O'Shea, Keane and Given to name a few. Given is the one that scares me the most, he is a solid and reliable keeper. France's inability (until recently) to score goals means that Given and the Irish defense could hold France at bay and look to beat them on the counter or on set pieces.

Let us face it, France's Achilles heal remains dead balls...an area where Ireland excels. See the both goals they scored against Italy. The first was not a typical set piece goal, but I can see Les Bleus overplaying the potential pull back and then opening themselves up to a high ball into the penalty area.



I fear that Ireland will look to beat Les Bleus on the set piece, and why not! It worked for Scotland during the Euro qualifiers. Last time these two nations faced off in qualifiers, Ireland drew 0-0 in Paris and lost 1-0 in Dublin. The latter was after the "old guard" returned: Makelele, Thuram and Zizou. Those folks are not walking through the door at Clairefontaine! No reason to believe that the away and home series might not fall along the same lines.

The key will be the first match for France. I think they need to come back with at least 1 away goal in their back pocket, hopefully with a victory but at least a draw. Why? If Les Bleus come home down or with a 0-0 draw I fear the following scenario will play out - Ireland play a cautious first 15 minutes, defend and try to beat France on the counter. The play the rest of the 1st half more offensively trying to grab a goal. If they go into half time up or even with France they come out the second half and defend with 9 to 10 players behind the ball always looking to spring Keane, or looking for a set piece deep in French territory, see if they cannot sneak in a goal. Ireland will look for the away goal victory or get to PKs, where we know it is a complete crap shoot. For this reason France must go to Dublin looking to score at least 1 goal, how is that for strategy??? But I think Domenech should consider a 4-4-2 for that match align - Sagna, Abidal, Gallas, Evra in the back with Malouda on the left, Gourcuff and LDiarra in the middle and Ribery on the right (I realize Ribery does not like it there, but France need to bring some offense to the right side of the pitch and he played there very well in the past), and have Henry - Benzema (or Anelka) up front. The 4-4-2 will bring much more width and attack than the 4-2-3-1, you might open yourself to some risk of more counters, but if you force Ireland back into their defensive 1/3 that might block any semblance of organized attacks from the Irish.

I am not sure how this will play out, but I know it will be nerve racking to say the least...predictions on this match up as we draw closer!!!